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6/22/16

Twas the night before Brexit and all through the house...

...not a Tier One was stirring, not even a and I can't make a snappy rhyme so I'll leave it there. But the point is made and it's interesting how gold bullion, rather than the GBP/USD pair, has come forward as the most sensitive reading of tomorrow's UK Remain/Leave referendum. With things as they are...

 
...my best guess is that most of the "Remain will win" assumption is now baked into the gold price. For sure we're likely to get a spike down assuming that win is confirmed by the votes, but I'd also bet that buyers will be waiting for just that type of limbic reaction and once things settle, U$1,250/oz looks roughly correct, ceteris paribus. It therefore stands to reason that the market shock potential is to the upside and Leave result. If The UK decides for Brexit, gold is going to have one ass-ripper of a rally and there are enough serious goldwatchers* out there calling U$1,400/oz as a target for it to be credible.

But today is set to be one of those nervy-quiet days. The big bets are already laid, the only moves and chatter will come from people like me, inconsequential scribbles in the margins.



*Did you just read someone's article on gold that included exclamation marks? Well, bless you and bless her/him too.