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12/28/16

More Argentina: Why Cristina won't ever go to prison

We now know why Macri chose this post-Christmas period to dump his FinMin. In-country the chatter about Prat-Gay lasted all of two days, right up to the moment when Judge Ercolini published his 800 page charge against Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her friends (notably Baez, De Vido, López) regarding charges that basically add up to "ripping off the State using public works contracts".

The charges are heavy and they're going to be difficult to counter too, for her friends. CFK's defence will be 1) it's all politically motivated against her, which may be partially true but the evidence is between strong and overwhelming no matter who was/is/will be in charge and 2) it was in the time of her husband rather than her, which is a better defence though it drops her pals right in it. However, the 1) argument should be enough for her to beat any prison time because in 2017 there are two sets of legislative elections in which she'll be able to run for Congress. When she does she'll have more than enough hardcore vot to be elected under the Argentine system, which means she'll then enjoy immunity from prosecution. In short, we're looking at a Carlos Menem type of situation in which she sees out her days of declining power from the back rows.