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12/27/16

Reality bites: Results of the IKN "Ten random predictions for 2016"

On December 27th 2015 we ran our annual "Ten random predictions" post for the year ahead, the usual mix of biz, politics and sport that blend serious and left-field calls that we don't expect to become reality. Here we are at the back end of 2016, it's time for the results so here below come the original calls, the result and the score for each call (1 for a win, 0.5 for "close enough for my taste", big zero for anything else). And by way of reminder of previous years' results:
  • In 2013 we scored 5.5/10
  • In 2014 we scored 6/10
  • In 2015 we scored 5.5/10
...which means our mediocrity is at least consistent. On with the show:
1) Gold to break through U$1,250/oz in the course of 2016.
SCORE: 1 point: It didn't even need a quarter, let alone a year. And by the way, we may seem all worldly wise and "Ahh, but that was an easy call Otto!" now, but this time last year with gold deeply under U$1,100/oz and most of the mainstream telling us with their serious voices that gold was certain to drop under one thousand, it was a call made in a very different market. 

2) Silver to rally against gold and the gold/silver ratio will finally break under 70/1.
SCORE: 1 point: Again, hindsight makes this one sound easy. Again, it wasn't so obvious back then. I'll scoop up my point and move on. 

3) Uranium to go nowhere yet again.
SCORE: 1 point: Just so easy to fade the idiot uranium permabulls. While they were predicting the same rally they predict this time every freakin' year, IKN called it the way it is and then sat back and watched Uranium spot prices drop by 50% in 2016. Chau, losers.

4) Goldcorp (GG) to buy Lake Shore Gold (LSG).
SCORE: 0.5 point: I'm taking half points here for two reasons. First up LSG sold all right, but to Tahoe and not Goldcorp. Second up, as subscribers know very well, a few weeks after this call I changed the buyer to Tahoe in The IKN Weekly and then even managed to pre-empt the merger announcement by scooping it here on the blog a couple of days before it happened.

5) Copper to go under $2/lb early year and to rally to $2.50/lb by the end of the year.
SCORE: 1 point: No bones about it, this is my favourite prediction win of the year because I made it hard for myself, needing a bottom and a top call to come in (and in the right order), but score it did.

6) Venezuela's government to implode.
SCORE: 0 point: It was looking likely for a while, especially in the first couple of months of 2016. Also, as we leave the year the country is in an awful state and making headlines on a daily basis (hyperinflation, de-stocked supermarkets, political upheaval, whole nine yards) but the plain fact is that my main criteria, Maduro out by now, hasn't appeared. Therefore, nul points. 

7) Keiko Fujimori to become the next President of Peru.
SCORE: 0 point: Again, close but no cigar because by a thin 0.14% margin Keiko lost the second round run-off to Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. I could cheat and give myself a half point for being that close, I won't. Fail.

8) Usain Bolt to break the world record for the men's 200 metres in the final at the Rio 2016 Olympics. Because hero (and I'll be taking half points for a gold without a record that day).
SCORE: 0.5 point: I get the half point for the bit in brackets. In mitigation, it poured down with rain an house before the final and scuppered all chances of the record falling, so Usain did enough for the gold without threatening the record. 

9) England to win the Euro 16 European Football Championships.
SCORE: 0 point: Abject fail. I mean, beaten by Iceland. Embarrassing.

10) Christopher Froome to win the Tour de France and retain his crown.
SCORE: 1 point: Oh yeah. Froomy pwned them Frenchies.

And so...roll on the drums...

GRAND TOTAL: SIX OUT OF TEN. That's half a point better than last year, which is good. Even better is that the "serious calls" about metal and money things were damned close this time. On the other hand, I've sucked at politics in this continent for at least the last year and a half.


And that's that for 2016 but fear not, in the next couple of days you'll get the IKN Ten Random Predictions For 2017, your next opportunity to laugh at my stupidity.