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1/9/16

Reader's Casey mailbag screenshot funny thing that we very like

I appreciate and adore IKN readers, especially when they send me things that make me laugh. Here's a screenshot of the mail reader 'C' sent into IKN Nerve Centre:



That's a win, C. Thanks.

1/8/16

As of today Mexico is a more dangerous place in which to live

Here's why:



Justice? We don't need no stinkin' justice. English language story here.

The Friday OT: Karl Jenkins; Alegretto from Palladio

I got turned onto this by reader PK a while ago, very catchy modern piece:



Consider this sub-four minute piece of musical beauty a gateway drug; if you're curious about classical but not normally into scrape'n'blow music the above is a work you should try out for size.

The biog of Karl Jenkins is interesting stuff too, I knew precious little about the guy until late last year but thanks to Spotify I'm getting into his work quickly. Recommendations for those of you who'd like more include the full length piece 'Palladio' (which includes the above). 'Sarikiz' (concerto for violin and orchestra), 'La Folia' (concerto for marimba and strings, which for what it's worth is coming out of my speakers as I write these words) or his album 'Quirk', as well as his better known works such as 'Adiemus' or 'The Armed Man'.

Gold: Lawrence Williams may have a point here

Yes he's obviously pro-gold in his outlook, but Lawrence Williams* isn't one of the permabull rose-tint-specs people either. His piece today entitled "Big purchases into gold ETFs suggest beginnings of change in sentiment" makes a valid point about the signals of a tidal change in attitudes towards bullion ownership in the USA (like it or not, it's still the world's most important market and sets the tone for so many other places) and here's an extract:

"Yesterday saw purchases of 4.166 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF and a relatively massive purchase of 3.87 tonnes into the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are now at 645.131 tonnes and at 156.42 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  These two purchases confirm a change in attitude towards gold by U.S. investors."

Worthy reading material for this Friday. Click this link and read it all.

*Or Lawrie to his friends and as I have no friends, Lawrence.

Kaminak (KAM.v) and the sad reality of our current market

Repeat after me:


"Bear market sell the news"
"Bear market sell the news"
"Bear market sell the news"
"Bear market sell the news"
"Bear market sell the news"
"Bear market sell the news"

And I'm not taking anything away from the very decent KAM NR this week either, it's just the way things are right now. Another stage in the cycle and the numbers in this type of Feas Study would pop the stock 30% and they'd be queuing at the door to make serious offers for the project.

Yes, that's B2Gold under U$1.00 today

All the proof you need:



This looks rather cheap to me, lots of bad news that likely doesn't exist baked into that number. Consider that your trade tip of the day and talking of bake, yesterday by request of the birthday girl we didn't do a birthday cake...


...we did cupcakes. Oldskool cakes are soooo 20th century, apparently. One of the things I like about having kids is the way they make you feel old and young at the exact same time.

PS: I have no problem in admitting that all this BTO selling has me scratching my head. It's clearly driven by a New York seller, though.

UPDATE lunchtime: And down and down and down again.


It just bounced of U$0.91 (!!). I own plenty, it's getting tempting to own a bit more. Catch another falling knife?

UPDATE 2: And under U$0.90! Impressive. Watch out anal ysts, The Clive might be ready to punch somebody if this continues...

Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) 4q15 production: the skinny

Production slightly light but acceptable.
2016 guidance solid.
The 144 Gap zone starting to gain traction.
Plenty of clues on costs.
Q4 will most probably be anothet modestly profitable period.
What with stock's recent market-fave status, price reaction today will be interesting to follow. Betcha it gets support once the post-open is done with.

Bottom line: In line.

1/7/16

In IKN348 on Sunday...

...we'll be taking time to do two main things:

1) Explaining why B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) is an excellent risk/reward bet going into its production news release due next week.

2) Explaining why Focus Ventures (FCV.v) has been way oversold this week and is a great bet at its current level.

Other stuff too.

1/6/16

Less posting Thursday

Eldest daughter's birthday. Will be back tomorrow evening.

Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) doing volume

The price move's pretty good, though it still really needs to break above CAD$1.35 to be really interesting. It's the volume that's the thing here, the reason a post is merited.


Another random prophecy adds an extra gram of credibility.

UPDATE lunchtime: LSG.to has now done 8m+ share volume and is on track for a multi-year volume record. Don't say you weren't warned.

Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO): Hi Scotia!

Nice to see you naming your sources, guys. Not.

This from today's "Scotia Scoop" thingy:

"Scotia Mining Sales this morning noting that Tahoe Resources is set to kick off the year on the right foot with good news coming out of the company’s newest gold mine, Shahuindo, located in Peru.  First of all, we’re expecting the company to announce first substantial gold production from the mine in the next couple of weeks – rumour has it that the company has actually already “technically” poured its first gold from the operation (and before Christmas to boot!), however the amount was miniscule enough to not make a big deal about it (ie. a major press release)."

There are others out there too in sellsideland, but your humble scribe likes the ones that read this humble source of cyberspace and pretend they don't because we've always preferred full-asshole suits to the semi-asshole variety. 

Okay other readers, to explain what goes on here...

1) On Tuesday IKN breaks news that should have been broken by the company
2) All the brokerages read the IKN post and immediately speed-dial THO HQ
3) Kevin, Ira and all their friends cover their embarrassing tracks by telling the callers the first pour was "miniscule" (sic) and "not worth mentioning" (which is total bullshit of course, it was a sizable pour and 100% material)
4) On Wednesday the lapdog sellside community fall into line.

So ends another chapter of Hunt The Sausage. Still nothing about the death at Escobal, though. Expect that to get buried in the MD&A.

PS: By the way Scotia, it's not "miniscule", it's "minuscule". And don't bother me about the frequency argument either, ok? The disadvantages of a classical eddycation, innit.

UPDATE 10:45am local time.



Venezuela: Well, that didn't take long

IKN December 27th, in prediction number 6 of the "ten random predictions for 2016" post:

6) Venezuela's government to implode. Maduro won't be President this time next year. It's likely to be very messy too. Venezuela has been the butt of annual "teetering on the brink" type of op-eds and articles every year for the last ten years with the right-wing press getting it wrong every time, but this time around things are obviously deteriorating and the opposition victory in the December elections just gone is a telling moment. Oil prices where they are could be straw that breaks this camel's back as China won't be so quick to bail them out this time. I don't know whether the PSUV party will fall from government, but the call is "govt implode" and "Maduro out", that's the thing.


Ten days later, on January 5th in Caracas Venezuela:
In its first day with majority power in Venezuela’s legislature, the opposition coalition of parties Tuesday threw down the gauntlet before socialist President Nicolas Maduro, saying it would try to legally remove him from power within six months.
The declaration from new National Assembly President Henry Ramos Allup came at the end of a raucous day during which opposing sides exchanged catcalls and in which the socialist faction led by former assembly President Diosdado Cabello left the hall en masse before adjournment.
“We will recover our autonomous power, pass laws of amnesty and national reconciliation and look within six months for a constitutional, democratic, peaceful and electoral means of ending [Maduro’s] administration,” Ramos Allup said in his address to deputies. Continues here


For the record, in a couple of days' time, President Maduro is set to speak in front of the very same Congress in his country's annual presidential address to the nation. May you live in interesting times.

Chart of the day is...

...gold, dailies:


For sure I'm enjoying the modestly positive (+2% or so) start gold has made to 2016, just like any other owner of the stuff. But I'm under no illusions, either. 

Putting the To-Da-Moon-Alice brigade on mute is simple common sense.

1/5/16

Continental Gold (CNL.to): Scratching an itch

Can't help it, have to mention this because it's been gnawing at me ever since yesterday's post that noted the real reasons why the Continental Gold (CNL.to) EIA permit was denied last year. If you recall, the director of the permitting body Corantioquia, Alejandro González Valencia, told Colombia's biznews people El Colombiano that the permit was denied due to water reasons (too much of it from the mine that wasn't being managed) and enviro-control reasons. The report also said that according to the director of the body (translated),  "...on September 11th 2015 the environmental impact permit modification was denied (by Corantioquia)."

Got that? September 11th 2015. That was a Friday.

Now compare that to the CNL.to news release dated Tuesday September 15th 2015 entitled "Continental Gold Elevates the Environmental Permit Application for the Buritica Project to the National Level" in which the only mention made of the previous permitting program was, "...Company has withdrawn its application for the modification of the EIA from Corantioquia, the autonomous regional environmental authority of the department of Antioquia".

Got that? CNL tried to make out on the 15th of September, four days (and two full trading days) after Corantioquia had  DENIED the permit, that they had withdrawn their application. Maybe, like me, you see a subtle difference between "withdrawn on 15th" and "denied on 11th".

And if we check out a price chart...



...there's more than a little bit of smelly about that, too. However, that's probably a side issue, the main one is how a company that had a permitting track running for nigh on seven quarters decided that it was not material that the permit had been denied. 

Y'see, in the warped world of market scum like Ari Sussman, your permit application isn't "denied", it's "elevated". Four days after the fact. And then idiots like you (or corrupted sellside brokerages that "advise" you) continue to believe him (or in the case of brokerages, pretend to believe him) when he promises shiny pretty things for the future.

And then Canada wonders why its capital markets have lost all credibility with serious money.

UPDATE: Reader LF sends in this link, which is simply wonderful. It's a video of Ari Sussman at an investor event dated November 2015 saying that CNL.to (and to quote the lying piece of excrement):
"...is cheap, really as a direct result of our change in permitting strategy. A lot of people misinterpreted that, that there's a complication in permitting in Colombia, that is not the case at all....this is the result in a change of strategy which ultimately resulted in a delay."

Class action, anyone? Thank you LF.

Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) pours gold at Shahuindo, tells nobody

On December 22nd the Shahuindo gold mine in Cajamarca owned by TAHO poured its first gold.

So where's the freakin' NR Kevin?

First these jokers conceal a worker death, now they're hiding the Shahuindo public disclosure news. WTF is going on at this company, they run by the Mob with a vow of Omerta or something?

UPDATE lunchtime Tuesday 5th: To answer a couple of mails received (and potentially head others off at the pass), no, I'm not making this up (my kung fu is greater than etc etc). Shahuindo has produced its first gold, it was poured on December 22nd 2015, TAHO hasn't bothered to tell anyone. As for why, you ask 'em not me. Ira will love to take your call, I'm sure.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v) delivers a pre-feas

This morning Focus Ventures (FCV.v) brings news of that rarest of items in junior mining circles at the moment, the results of a brand new pre-feas study on their Bayovar12 project*. And if you want to know just one thing about it...


...it's fair to say that it's pretty sensitive to the price of the end product. 

It's also clear to your humble scribe, even after a look at the NR and not the 43-101 we'll get later, that there's a big difference between this particular pre-feas stage document at the ciggypack calcs we've been working on it so far. Plenty to chew over, expect better thoughts this weekend in IKN348, subbers.



*What? You mean a junior exploreco has been spending its money on developing its property? It hasn't been "concentrating on cash conservation (in order to pay to all-important director salaries for two years rather than one)? How oldskool of them...


Charts of the day are...

...copper. All about what it's been doing so far in this youthful year of 2016:



Bottom line: Smacks of market BS to me. As you were, people.

1/4/16

Kip Keen leaves Mineweb, joins CEO.CA

Because "sponsored coverage" is the innovative leading edge of the internet disruption of mining sector business, folks. Oh well, another trade journalist about whom Frank Giustra will never have to worry again.

So it goes.

Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) worker death still unreported

A quick reminder that fake world class mining company Tahoe Rescources (TAHO) (THO.to) still hasn't done the right thing and reported to the market the death of one of its employees in late November, who died in a work-related accident while on duty at the company's Escobal mine in Guatemala (and first reported by IKN in early December).

Hopefully it wasn't one of Kevin MacArthur's Ferrari's that ran him over.

Kyrgyzstan horse penis sausage mining risk update

Yesterday we trained your beady lil eyes on Michael McFeat, the racist at Centerra Gold (CG.to) in Kyrgyzstan who caused a one day strike at the mine and managed to get himself arrested after comparing the local sausage eaten traditionally at Christmas to a horse penis. Today we learn that a judge has kicked him out of the country, which is good, but the funny thing is that he's being kicked out for not having his working permit papers in order (so typical to many Canadian mining companies working abroad, is it not Mister Olson?).

Seems to IKN that Michael resembles a dick far more than a kygyz sausage ever will. Sad-ass speller, too.

PS: Turns out McFeat is Scottish, a place that really knows about food.

LADB on Venezuela

Today Latin America Daily Briefing runs an excellent and link-stuffed report on the Venezuela political scene and what we could see in 2016. Go see it here, the essence of good reporting.

Continental (CNL.to): Errr...no Daniel

This translated from this in El Colombiano, dated December 29th:

The other side of the coin
"...this newspaper consulted the director of Corantioquia, Alejandro González Valencia, who answered that even though the permit application was presented on December 23rd 2013, the mining company only handed in its complete environmental impact study (EIA) on 24th June 2014. He added that on January 5th 2015 a resolution was emitted with 63 observations (requirements) that had to be complied with by the company, which replied on April 8th 2015. Finally, on September 11th 2015 the environmental impact permit modification was denied (by Corantioquia).

"Easily, of the two years that this process took, half of it is the direct responsibility of the company and the other half the time we took evaluating a licence that asked to move from processing 60 tonnes per day of material to 2,000 tonnes per day", the functionary said.

In broad terms, Corantioquia argued that the licence was denied for hydrogeological reasons (more water was being released than the estimated), non-conformity with the management of the surrounding tropical woodland area and inadequate compensation to biodiversity".

"Many times the delays in environmental permitting are due to information presented (by the solicitant) that is not complete", said González.

Gotta love Nevada Copper (NCU.to)

There's nothing like starting a fresh new year with a guy with a pretty face, so last night's NR from Nevada Copper (NCU.to) has provided plenty of entertainment at IKN Nerve Centre. And we particularly like the long ones, because we get to play Hunt-The-News, always semi-hidden among the distractions and bunkum. 

Two things get picked out for extra light-shining-upon-ness (yes it's a word, of course it's a word). First this bit:
"The Loan Agreement amendment also required that, prior to December 31, 2015 the Company would complete an equity and/or subordinated debt financing transaction for proceeds of US$20 million".
Compare that to the September 30th release which announced the loan amendment but strangely, bizarrely, weirdly, made no mention at all about the obligation to raise capital by 2015 year-end, only that (and I quote), "Nevada Copper believes that it is the appropriate time to re-engage on the financing front". Yup, appropriate as in "we have to else default" but y'know...details. 

However, that's just IKN's penchant for catching a guy with a pretty face in another round of bovine excrement dispersal. The real core of last night's NR is here:
"If the Company does not complete the 2016 Financing by April 15, 2016, all amounts outstanding under the Loan Agreement will be immediately due and payable by the Company and Red Kite will be in a position to exercise all remedies available to it under the Loan Agreement and related security agreements."
Translation: NCU has 3.5 months to raise twenty large in a bear market after having failed to do just that in the last quarter, despite talking to a whole bunch of different people who were just queueing up to lend them money, else Red Kite takes over. Well...can't see any share price pressure there....can you?

1/3/16

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN347 has just been sent to subscribers. A shortened holiday edition, but still some interesting knobs and knockers. Back to the full whack normal coverage as of next week.

Brent Cook does BNN

The bearded one got invited onto Andrew Bell's show over at BNN on December 31st to talk about the way he sees the mining sector shaping for 2016. An eight minute segment, have a look for yourself on this link. Here are some quotes.
"I've never seen it this bad"
"Majors have really cut back"
"...only ten percent (of juniors) have the cash to do something"
"...geologists saying there's no point in exploring any longer"
"...I think it's gotten so bad...that we've seen the worst"

Good stuff, go look. He likes Lake Shore Gold, too. Fools seldom differ, they say.

PS: Gary does Otto does Brent does BNN, because I'm feeling silly. Here.

Gold mining horse penis political risk news

What? You trying to tell me that a white Anglo-saxon male from one of them there industrialized nations working in a gold mine in a foreign country cracks condescending racist jokes about the locals and then wonders why he's in trouble?

Surely not!

"A Briton working at a gold mine in Kyrgyzstan has been detained and faces up to five years in jail for comparing a local delicacy to a horse penis, according to authorities.
"Police detained Michael Mcfeat, an employee of the Toronto-based Centerra Gold, after he posted the comment on Facebook, which caused a temporary strike at the mine, an interior ministry spokesman said on Sunday."

Full story here. Let us be clear: The people who live in the dark ages are not those who continue time-honoured traditions, be they dance, food, clothing, language or whatever other nuance that may make up regional cultures or customs. The people who live in the dark ages are the racist scumbags who make fun of things they don't understand.