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5/14/16

Peru: Six miners dead in gold mine accident

The location is the Santa Rosa gold mine in La Libertad, owned by the Comarsa company of the infamous Sanchez-Paredes family. According to initial reports at 11:30 last night a rock fall buried six employees at the mine, including machine operators, two geologists and the shift manager. All are presumed killed in the event, the company is currently in rescue mode but sadly, only expects to retrieve the bodies.


The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "I am Sam", about the very interesting drill hit news from Starcore during the week. The stock was already climbing on the news and added another 20% or so after the post went up. That's not IKN's influence though, that's simply the market recognizing something. More on this tomorrow, subbers.

Second Place: "Porter Stansberry tries to gag IKN".Yet another puffed-up ego that loves free speech, right up to the moment it's used against him (and it's always a "him", ever noticed that?). So Porter Stansberry is going to try and gag IKN, in just the same way as Serafino Iacono, Kaare Foy, Daryl Hodges have tried (three off the top of my head, there are others). How's that working out for you so far, shady end of the mining world?

And fwiw I thought the Porter legal action news would be the easy #1 of the week, but as it turns out...

First Place: "The CEO.ca pump and dump scam site: Past, present and future". Just goes to show, one person's legal fun can't compete with a post shining light on an emerging pump and dump scam show. The whole thing about the way sharks feed on greenhorns in the mining stock sector is hardly new, arguably it's been that way since 1849 and probably further back than that. What CEO.ca brings to the table is a digitally switched-on way of fleecing the naive, a new variation of a long-standing trend. No more no less, though IKN reiterates that people devoid of all morals like Tommy Humphreys and his band of sycophants are not a new phenomenon in the sector. It's capitalism baby, caveat emptor.

5/13/16

The Friday OT: Noir Désir; L'homme pressé

The current USA election scenario nudged a memory earlier in the week and I went to check out the song after years away. It's still strong and fresh, quality French rock, good video, I like the boyband bit in the middle.



This was recorded at the height of Noir Désir's fame, before singer Bertrand Cantat fell from grace in 2003*. The music survives.


*If you need to know, Wikipedia has the story. It's not a nice one.

Capitalism at its best

IKN thanks reader B for this photo.


Charting the rising influence of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on copper

The times they are a'changin' and SHFE is now the boss of copper price discovery, it's doesn't matter what the LME would like you to believe. Here's the main chart:


This shows the percentages of the above.


Data from Chile's copper data people Cochilco, right here. We don't include the bonded warehouse figures, those we leave for the market shills and pumpers. Bless you Scotia.

Peru Presidential election run-off: Slight advantage Keiko in the polls

Here's a list of the polls that have been published by the three main pollster companies in Peru since the end of round one voting as we move towards the June 5th run-off vote between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski:

  • IPSOS April: Keiko 40%, PPK 44%
  • CPI April: Keiko 43.6%, PPK 41.5%
  • Datum April: Keiko 40.4%, PPK 41.1%
  • IPSOS April: Keiko 39%, PPK 43%
  • CPI May 1st: Keiko 42.3%, PPK 40.1%
  • IPSOS May 8th: Keiko 42%, PPK 39%
  • DATUM May 12th: Keiko 42.3%, PPK 42.3%
  • CPI: Keiko 45.8%, PPK 40.2%


It was basically level pegging for the first few weeks and a technical dead-heat, which is also the message from the survey published by DATUM yesterday, but other polls such as IPSOS last weekend and CPI today show that Keiko Fujimori taking a slight lead.

GLD bullion holdings hitting new highs

The increase in holdings of physical gold bullion at GLD, the world's biggest gold ETF, is impressive:
NB: Please note the cut-down Y-axis, done 
to show contrasts not to fool your eye

And it's every day. 845.19 metric tonnes as per yesterday evening. Up over 40 tonnes in less than two weeks.

Rick Rule on BNN's Market Call tonight

Click here for the hour of Rick Rule on Greg Bonnell's Market Call, that went on yesterday evening. Large chunks of smooth delivery on mining stocks and gold.

PS: You can tell Rule's old-school, just note how many times he says "balance sheet".

5/12/16

Regarding Starcore Intl (SAM.to)

Here are three charts put together by your humble scribe last night while playing with the SAM model. Consider them a clue as to significance of yesterday's news from the company:




We'll go into detail on all this in IKN366, subbers. Should be fun and I get to play with numbers for days on end. A wonk gotta like that.

PS: Just to be a tease for the rest of you, here's how the analysis of Starcore Intl (SAM.to) in IKN361, dated April 10th 2016, concluded:
"The bottom line is that under present circumstances SAM.to is a cheap purchase, but if things start going well for both company and the macro market, this one has clear-cut chances of being one of your fabled multi-bagger opportunities. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why I’m loading up on Starcore in the days to come."

It was 47c that day. It's now a month later and SAM.to is trading heavy volumes at 79c. That's 68.1% up. Have a pleasant Thursday.

More B2Gold news (BTG) (BTO.to)

Dundee just upped its price target on B2Gold (BTO.to) to CAD$3.50 on the back of its strong 1q16 numbers. No arguments about that call from this humble corner of cyberspace.

The copper price action is way more important than gold

The industry tends to obsess over the moves in the shiny expensive metal and this period of bullish action for the PM miners has concentrated that focus, but what really matters in mining these days is this:

Copper. For one thing, it's a playing field for the really big mining money (BHP, RTZ, Glencore, FCX, even Vale and we can continue). For another, the junior-myopic among us need to keep clear that without significant price support for copper, gold's own moves are always going to be limited (and before you come back with the 'dollar collapse' stupidities, recall that IKN is vaccinated against the asshole end of the goldbug community and lives in the real world).

But back to copper and the repeated failure of the Doctor to break U$2.30/lb is all the signal you need about the asthenic state of the Chinese economy. Get that into your head and chew it over a while.

Morning. Coffee.

Haven't done one of these oldschool market chat posts for a long time. My how the interwebs has changed over the years of IKN.

Today's main mover in the weird world of juniors is the owner of the Coffee deposit Kaminak (KAM.v), which has just been sold to the highest bidder. That's Goldcorp (GG). Hope you own some, nice IKN reader person.

Richmont (RIC.to) is up on its 1q16 results and getting used to trading over CAD$10 these days, even though I thought the financials were a little on the lacklustre side (after the strong production numbers that are already in the price). RIC's probably moving up because of the Coffee Factor, what with TAHO (and others, we now hear) trying to close a deal with M. Marion.

As expected, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) trading well this morning on the back of the strong 1q16 financials we outlined in yesterday's post (not a difficult one, it was a no-brainer to call BTO higher last night. More on these numbers in IKN366 this weekend, subscribers. Disclosure: I own some and holding them.

To the downside, I'm surprised Torex (TXG.to) is only off 6% on the back of losing 15% of its mine life. A case of 'all hands to the pumps' in the brokerages and spinning the bad news as much as possible "but...but...but...look at the cash flow!". 

As for Starcore (SAM.to), that one's trading like a beauty as it would seem enough people have done their homework and have realized what yesterday's drill hit may mean for San Martin. More on this story in IKN366 too, subbers.  Disclosure: I own some and holding them.

Dilma Rousseff Tchau! Suspended from her job this morning, as expected.

 


5/11/16

The B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) 1q16 financials in two words

Kick Ass.

B2Gold filed its 1q16 financials and MD&A on SEDAR this evening, we'll probably get the NR tomorrow morning. Here's a chart, check out the columns at the end there:


Revenues were pre-announced in the production report so we knew they'd come in there. The big positive in this set of numbers is the costs number, which has dropped to U$101.8m and a simple eye-cast along the line of the last two years' worth of quarters shows how good that looks. Put those two together and the operating revenues comes out at U$42.439m, which is roughly double any recent quarter.

The market will like these numbers, be in no doubt.

Disclosure: I own some BTO.

UPDATE, late night extra: B2 just hit the send button on the NR, right here.

The latest from The Dilma Show

The debate in Brazil's Senate has been going all day (if you care enough and want to practice your Portuguese a link to the live feed here) and once all house members have had their say (they get 15 minutes each and normally take every second to say something very similar to their colleagues...so don't expect a ratings smash on that feed) they're going to vote later this evening.

And Dilma is going to lose. Her enemies need 41 votes minimum of the 81 members and there are at least 44 who have declared they'll vote against her (it'll probably be around 50 in the end).

Which means she'll be suspended. And Veep Michel Temer will become interim President as from tomorrow morning.

And as a matter of interest, several news services have reported that Dilma has already removed all her personal photos from the Presidential office. Most newspapers in South America have their front page headlines written already. Stick a fork in this presidency, it's done.

 






x

I am Sam

SAM I am.


Do you like green eggs and ham?

Do you like ten metres of two ounce gold drill hits?

Disclosure: As subscribers know I'm long this stock, I've been adding to my position recently and I'm not selling any of my shares to you, not today and not for a long while yet.



Porter Stansberry's hypocritical attitude towards freedom of speech

Yesterday we noted how Porter Stansberry had decided to start a legal action against your humble scribe and his humble corner of cyberspace because we've said some nasty things about him. And Frank Porter Stansberry (can I call you Frank? Thanks!) doesn't like that.

Interestingly, this is the very same Frank Porter Stansberry that was found guilty of securities fraud by the SEC and fined U$1.5m. Which he appealed and lost. So when he lost his appeal he decided to take it to the Supreme Court claiming protection under the First Amendment, freedom of speech and all that. Of course the Supreme beaks laughed the case out of its hallowed halls by stating the extremely obvious:
 "Punishing fraud, whether it be common law fraud or securities fraud, simply does not violate the First Amendment."
In other words the person you know as Porter Stansberry just loves all that Free Speech concept when it suits him, but as soon as something gets printed about him that makes him feel all squirmy and icky inside it's time to sue. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how hypocrites operate and that's what Frank Porter Stansberry is, a simple hypocrite.

To sum up, we now know three things about Frank Porter Stansberry:

1) He is a securities fraudster. Proven and convicted, case upheld by the highest court in The United States of America.
2) He's a hypocrite when it comes to the cherished American right to free speech. 
3) But we also know that he likes to waste his money on legal stupidities that don't stand a chance in the court of law, which brings us to our final point today. IKN can assure its readership that the Stansberry case against IKN isn't going to prosper. His lawyers know that proving actual malice on this one is nigh on impossible and the whole thing is nothing more than a big fat exercise in bullying (but his lawyers will collect a few billable hours off him before they explain the problem, they're laughing at you Frank). What's up Frank, did you think you could throw a case at me then get me to cower and remove a whole bunch of posts with your name on them? Think again, Frankie.

Richmont and Tahoe

She's running away from you, Kev...


Goldman Sachs stopped out of its gold short trade

This received from A. Reader this morning, is the header of today's Goldman Sachs note to clients that announces they're closing their short position at a loss. Oh, doesn't that make me feel sad...

1. As detailed in US Views: Stepping Back, published May 8, 2016, our US economists recently reduced their forecast for Fed funds rate hikes over the next 12 months from 100 bp to 50 bp. Corresponding with this, our global rates team has lowered its forecast profile for 10-year US real rates over the same period (see Macro rates views: Lower Rate Forecasts, But Reflation Theme Intact, published May 10). As a result, we reduce the downside to our gold price forecast, raising the 3/6/12 month forecast profile to $1,200/1,180/1,150/oz from $1,100/1,050/1,000/oz. Our new year average price forecasts for 2016/17/18 are $1,202/1,150/1,150/oz from $1,124/1,000/1,050/oz. Though we forecast that gold prices will decline from spot over the next 3-12 months (with c.5%-9% downside), for reasons which we detail below, the changes to our economists' rates forecasts act to reduce the degree of downside to our modelled gold price profile and thus change the risk-reward of our previously implemented short gold trade recommendation (published February 15), which we close as a result at a c.4.5% loss.


5/10/16

Bad news for Radius Gold (RDU.v)

KCA won't have this money for you so very soon.

For the rest of you, yesterday Monday police in Guatemala arrested four mine workers and confiscated (what they say is) U$1.9m worth of concentrate from the KCA "El Tambor" mine, which is subject to a court-ordered closure order but as police discovered, the company have been mining there all the same. Naughty naughty, Kappes.

As for the RDU connection, they sold the mine to now owner/operator KCA and get a share of the cash flow, with a heavier weighting in the first years of production. Or they did until this week, anyway.


The CEO.ca pump and dump scam site: Past, present and future

What Tommy Humphreys has put together at his CEO.ca website is a new version of old-time pumping and dumping that caters a new audience of millennials. The concept is fair enough and it's even managed to rope in well-known names in the Canadian mining scene who add to the chat and give the site superficial kudos (e.g. John Kaiser, Brent Cook, Eric Coffin, who are hopefully merely ignorant about the way they're being used) but when push comes to shove there are bills to be paid and the only way of doing that is transferring the cash of its audience into the back pocket of its owner, Tommy Humphreys (mentored and sponsored by Frank Giustra, dontchaknow).

Here are three examples (of many) of how that cash transfer system works. 

Past: Exhibit A is the recent pump of Lithium-X (LIX.v), the Frank Giustra lithium thing that set alight a couple of months ago. Its name was pumped at CEO.ca non-stop on the way up, not just by Humphreys but by his band of so-called "independent journalists" who've basically taken their 30 pieces of silver, names such as Kip Keen and James Kwantes. But then, suddenly and after Humphreys' "friends and family" early stage placement shares came out of escrow, the stock peaked and LIX has dropped by a sharp 30% or so. And coincidentally, LIX.v is off the menu at the CEO.ca chat and rarely mentioned these days. The only things you hear on LIX are "Oh it must be hard if you bought at the top but don't worry folks, things'll be just fine" pleasantries to soothe the concerns of the greenhorns who bought badly.


Present: Go over to CEO.ca now and one of the stocks they're talking about the most is IDM Mining (IDM.v), a tiny exploreco which may or may not have some copper to discover way up in the GWN, but is certainly getting an inordinate amount of airtime as the Humphreys squad puts its name in front of the casual reader time and time again. And why would that be? Here a link to today Tuesday's placement filings and here's a extract from the PDF on IDM.v's recent closed placement (just scroll down a bit, you'll find it):


Sheer coincidence, of course.

Future: IKN confidently predicts that one of the next tickers to get the full pumpo treatment will be Golden Secret, another Frank Giustra shell that's about to run its romantic narrative on the great and good of Canada. Here's part of the filing from Golden Secret's recent placement (also on that above link):


Yup, Tommy Humphreys gets another 'friends/family' placement deal. It's highly likely that his squad at CEO.ca are cut in on this one too, that way they'll have plenty of reason to talk the ticker up to the stars come the day the promo gets rolled out.

And of course, be in no doubt as to who will be left holding the bag when Tommy Humphreys and his friends have exchanged their paper for cash, at or near the top of the future pump job. Greenhorns, a warm welcome awaits you at CEO.ca, they're so pleased to meet newbies and will welcome you with smiles and hugs and love. Yes of course they're shameless but don't let that worry you, they mean you no physical harm. They just want your money.


UPDATE: I'm told IDM is a gold play, not copper. Fair enough.

Protest march of miners in Puno

Via the camera of an IKN Special Correspondent here's part of the scene the scene right now, Tuesday 2:30pm local time, as a few thousand miners from the La Rinconada and Ananea mines (nearly all informal type gold mining) descend on the city of Juliaca in Puno region to tell President Ollanta Humala what they think of him. The photo shows just part of the long line of people (at 'Puente Maravillas' a few clicks outside the city centre, if you know your Juliaca well):


What they're singing isn't particularly complimentary about their President either. They don't like the mineworkers' formalization process enacted by this government, which probably means they're in favour of the Keiko Fujimori position of scrapping the current failed plan and starting again (or just kind of forgetting about the whole formalization process altogether).

Porter Stansberry tries to gag IKN

Here's the screenshot of a pleasant little mail your humble scribe received from the nice people at Google last week:



So wonderful when we get a reaction like this from the scumbag end of the mining scam community. After all, we are talking about the very same person that The SEC fined to the tune of U$1.5m for disseminating false stock tip information in order to drum up sales of his tip sheets and when his appeal against the fine was thrown out the courtroom ruled that, "Stansberry's conduct undoubtedly involved deliberate fraud, making statements that he knew to be false”.

When a man who gets rich from pumping bullshit stories to the naive starts throwing legal weight around, it's what we in the world of blogging recognize as the strategy of a bullyboy. Porter Stansberry, you just picked on the wrong guy, this isn't the first time this blog has come up against people with money to waste on lawyers fees, it won't be the last. Run along now, you pathetic thin-skinned human, IKN has already taken legal advice on your clumsy heavy-handed attempt to gag this blog and due to that, this post now exists. However your author is open to any further advice from IKN friends (you know the mail address folks, any snippet or thought welcome).

For more on how and why corporate bullies use this type of subpoena, check out this case study (unconnected the IKN and Porter Stansberry, but a decent enough blueprint).

The Dilma Show

All fun in Brazil. Take a deep breath and follow this:
  • April 17th the lower house of parliament in Brazil voted to start impeachment proceedings.
  • The debate was set to move to the upper house (the Senate) this week on May 11th (i.e. tomorrow Wednesday).
  • Yesterday May 9th midday, the dude who had just taken over as acting head of the lower house decided to annul the lower house vote for procedural reasons (that he basically made up).
  • Then last evening the same dude who revoked the April 17th vote decided just a few hours later that he wasn't going to revoke it after all. Because Brazil.

We now suspect the upper house debate and vote will happen tomorrow as previously scheduled and for more on what that means, here's last week's need-to-know post on Dilma's sticky position. But will the Senate vote happen as per expected? This is Brazil, you never know...

Peru mining political risk is rising due to the election run-off

This piece is from the IKN Weekly subscription service IKN365, out last Sunday evening. It's a tight race between Keiko and PPK and both sides are scrambling for every vote they can get, not a scenario that makes for business stability in Peru. What I do know is that due to the sudden appearance of Hernando de Soto on the scene, there re a lot of mining executives in Peru who are getting a quiet and controlled attack of nerves.

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Peru: Keiko adds Hernando de Soto to her team
With the voter intention polls indicating a tight race between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, the Peru election campaign is now about finding minor issues and attracting specific sub-sets of voters. Keiko Fujimori is going full populist as well, with the last week seeing her announce that she’d scrap the current mining formalization plan and also saying she opposes “Civil Union” (i.e. not marriage but legal rights of partnership) for homosexual couples. On that one she’s simply running the numbers pretty cynically, as she spoke publicly in favour of Civil Union as recently as August 2015.

And as this paragraph points out, Keiko’s penchant for populist vote-winning policies may be about to land on the mining industry as well. Yesterday Saturday brought confirmation (8) that economist Hernando de Soto was joining the Keiko campaign. As he’s one of the very few Peruvian figures known on the world stage, it’s a significant fillip for her campaign and adds potential prestige to her eventual government. It’s also interesting because De Soto was a strong supporter of her disgraced father when he was President in the 1990’s. On the subject of mining, it was De Soto last year who proposed (9) that the “Ollachea Model” of giving at least 5% of any mining project to local populations (in the way Minera IRL has done at Ollachea) should be adopted nationwide. As Keiko’s party has also flirted with that idea, it could become a formal policy for the industry and if so, watch out. It’s the type of thing that sounds fine on paper but in practice there are a ton of traps waiting for any similar policy and it would only work on some very specific projects, such as a geographically controlled (no geologically, we’re talking maps) Ollachea. Imagine for example what would happen when a line is drawn around Antamina/Las Bambas/Toquepala and all those villages inside the deemed “area affected” (be it 10km or 20km or whatever km) get presented with 5% of billions of dollars’ worth of production, while those outside the imaginary line get nothing? Not to mention the backlash we’d get from the mining companies, their shareholders and FDI sponsorship people on political risk issues when producing and stable operations are suddenly forced to hand over 5% of their assets and cash flow by law. How “Miner Friendly” would Peru look all of a sudden?

Finally, the latest voter intention poll came out today Sunday (10) and it’s at the bottom of our lengthening list here:

  • IPSOS April: Keiko 40%, PPK 44%
  • CPI April: Keiko 43.6%, PPK 41.5%
  • Datum April: Keiko 40.4%, PPK 41.1%
  • IPSOS April: Keiko 39%, PPK 43%
  • CPI May 1st: Keiko 42.3%, PPK 40.1%
  • IPSOS May 8th: Keiko 42%, PPK 39%

We need to take pollsters in Peru with a pinch of salt because they have their own agendas, but this new IPSOS poll is a departure from the other results because it’s the first poll that’s changed position. IPSOS was giving PPK a clear lead last week but has swung to Keiko.


5/9/16

The Clive and Panama

A certain Clive T. Johnson is one of the names that's just come up in the Panama Papers name dump today.

Kinda rings a bell...

The Geologists Are Coming!

Your humble scribe thanks with great sincerity reader 'JP', who sent in this Youtube to IKN Nerve Centre this morning:



Unlikely to be real geols, though. As JP and his pal correctly point out, "We think these guys are posers. No geo worth his salt owns a tie".

Breaking: Dilma gets to open the Rio Olympics after all

The lower house vote to impeach her has just been annulled. Brazil, weird world.

Dalradian (DNA.to) is a stock to watch this morning

A simple heads-up on what might become an interesting story. No personal position.

5/8/16

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN365 has just been sent to subscribers, another 27 pages of guff and nonsense nobody needs to read in order to get rich quick. This humble corner of cyberspace also takes the opportunity to send best wishes to reader 'R', who's not feeling very well today. Que te mejores, mi estimado.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order during a quiet week for the blog:

Third Place: "The Angry Geologist does Calibre Mining (CXB.v)". Your humble scribe really likes this new blog run by TAG, looks like the esteemed IKN readership does to. There are a couple of new posts out since this one as well, go check them out.
Second Place: "The Desjardins sell call on Argonaut Gold (AR.to)". Highlighting a good piece of anal ysis detective work, though interesting how traders just used to weak price action early week as an excuse to buy in cheaply. Bull market is as bull market does

First Place: "This Thing Isn't Like That Thing, HudBay (HBM) and Alan Hair edition". Out last weekend after the previous "three most post", this got a lot of hits. That's good. HBM down 15% on the week is probably just coincidence, guv.