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7/16/16

Rick Rule & Amir Adnani - "Selling Snake Oil to Idiots" Part 1

The first part of a conversation between Rick Rule and somebody who wants to be Rick Rule. They call it "Leverage to Gold: Acquiring 'Ounces in the Ground'" but my title is more accurate.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): Sprott selling" which basically was the piece in IKN374 last Sunday, but came as trading in DNA remained very high volume all week. There's a clear change of hands going on in this stock and I'd guess it isn't just Sprott doing the large selling, but it also means there are large buyers on the other end. One of those two groups are right, one is wrong. Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs.

Second Place: "The near-term future of Dynasty Metals and Mining (DMM.to) (DMMIF)". There was a small little buried lede in this one, I'd suspect it's the reason it got hit a lot.

First Place: "Orla Mining (OLA.v) is looking at Pershimco Resources (PRO.v)", our mini scoopette of the week (those type of posts tend to be popular) and a reminder to mining companies large and small that loose lips sink ships. Seriously guys, if a pissant blogger like me can find out your secrets imagine how many other people knew even before this post existed? All we're doing round here is levelling the playing field a little.

7/15/16

What? An attempted military coup in Turkey might heighten geopolitical risk, you say?

Surely not!

Read about the fun in Ankara tonight here (updated regularly and in English).

Less importantly, watch the pretty capitalism chart doing things here.

PS: Turkeys don't go coup. Pigeons go coup. Try the veal.

Brexit and spoons


Boy: Do not try and Brexit. That's impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth.
Neo: What truth? 
Boy: There is no Brexit. 
Neo: There is no Brexit? 
Boy: Then you'll see that it is not the country that exits, it is only yourself. 
 
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has suddenly become a very powerful and influential figure in world politics and that's not a bad thing at all, what with her being a smart and intelligent person. This excerpt from here:
Theresa May has assured Nicola Sturgeon that she will not trigger article 50 until “a UK-wide approach” has been agreed for negotiations to leave the European Union.
If you can't see how Theresa May has stitched up this whole Brexit thing and killed it dead yet, maybe you just need to wait a couple of years. However IKN can safely make two predictions based on this week in UK politics:
  • Article 50 won't be triggered in this decade
  • The British Pound (GBP) is going back above $1.40, but that will happen much sooner than 2020. Probably more like September 2016.



The Friday OT: Jacques Brel; Pourquoi faut-il que les hommes s'ennuient?

This week's Friday OT is presented without further comment.




INV Metals (INV.to) now tearing higher

Now 60% up since its updated pre-feas was released, on heavy volume too. Is it due to people getting in before yet another Monday morning newsletter pump job?



Only time will tell.

Tony Makuch's first job at Kirkand Lake (KGI.to)...

..as of next Monday July 18th when he takes over as CEO. To buy Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.to). Eric's orders. And remember where you heard it first.

Getting your basic facts wrong while pumping an overpriced gold stock, Byron King edition

Byron King of Agora has already been flagged as not the sharpest knife in the box by IKN recently, but the pump he decided to run on Victoria Gold (VIT.v) yesterday that did this to the stock (mouthbreathers, form an orderly queue with your money for Porter Stansberry's bank account)...


...gives an idea of how dumb he is. It included this photo and this caption...
...which says (and I quote), "Your senior geologist holding the first gold bar poured from Victoria's Gold Eagle. It weighs over 100 ounces!". Exclamation marked, of course.

In fact, the gold bar in the picture being held by Byron King is from the completely different Golden Predator (GPY.v) mine, not the Eagle mine and nothing at all to do with VIT. In fact, getting a gold bar out of the Eagle project or any other VIT.v project would be darned impressive, what with VIT.v being an exploration and development stage company with zero production and zero income.

The blind leading the blind. And if Byron King is Agora's "senior geologist", just imagine how bad the juniors are there.

PS: As to why Agora has chosen VIT.v as its pump you only need to look at the large sized NY money that got into the stock before it all began. The rich get richer and the stupid get poorer, it's the American way.

Just so you know

I'm really not in the mood to be entertaining and snarky and jovial and suchlike this morning after monitoring the news out of the South of France last night and this morning and learning that yet another fucked up fucktard has killed another large group of innocent men women and children in the name of religion because of God and love.


7/14/16

The interesting thing about today's Red Eagle (RD.v) placement announcement...

...is that all the money, every last bean of the $9.22m raised, was placed in Lima via the local brokerage, Kallpa.

So watch your back Vancouver/Toronto, cos they don't need no stinkin' half warrants either.

The social protests against the Macri government in Argentina begin

It took ten months, which is slightly earlier than I'd expected (kind of figures 18 months to two years, but a lot depends on the weather and time of year) and the trigger to tonight's "cacerolazo" protests (the banging on kitchen pots thing they like there, of the type that started in 2001) is the massive rise in utility prices in the country. Because neoliberalism.

A Flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, Thursday afternoon 1:30pm local time. Comments on four stocks we cover and I'm looking to add a few shares to one I own at the current price.

Since The IKN Weekly published on Orla Mining (OLA.v-H) last Sunday...

...in IKN374, the price of this famous-name shell has popped from 52c to 75c. That 44.2% and that's not a bad little move for this stock. We also found out (thanks to sources who read The IKN Weekly) that OLA is in discussion with Pershimco (PRO.v) about its Cerro Quema property in Panama. That development was covered in this post earlier in the week.

Here's the note from last Sunday evening:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Orla Mining (OLA.v-H): Something is brewing
Up until recently Orla Mining (OLA.v-H) was a ten cent shell stock sitting on the NEX end of the TSXV and doing nothing. That’s now changed, as this 2016 price chart shows.


So far in price moves we’ve seen:

  • Spotty purchases between mid-February and end May around the 15c level
  • New activity in June that got it to 20c
  • Then a sudden rush up to the approx 50c level on new levels of volume

At face value that’s quite impressive for what’s nothing more than a shell at this time, but once we check out a few of the details of the company it becomes more obvious why this shell is creating noise. To do so, let’s zero in on the company’s latest NR dated July 8th  in which it announced the closure of a $7m round of financing (28). This was the funding round of a soon-to-be unleashed new junior on the block. Its backers have already got in on various rounds of early financing at cheap prices (6c, 8c, 10c) from mid-2015 up to February 2016, but it’s when you see the names of the main players that things start to get interesting. After this latest 50c financing round in which they all participated, Marc Prefontaine, Hans Smit, Troy Fierro, Richard Hall, John Graham and Pierre Lassonde between them own a total 66.3% of Orla’s fully diluted share count and if you don’t recognize those names as the top table A-Team of the Canada mining scene, then I suggest you change your sector of interest immediately. Just seeing one or two of those names connected to a start-up junior would be enough for my blood, all five and the bells should be ringing already.

As for what it owns and plans to do, its flagship property at this point is the Blue Quartz project which is described in these terms in its most recent MD&A:

The Blue Quartz Property is located approximately 12 kilometres north-northeast of Matheson, 73 kilometres east-northeast of Timmins and 56 kilometres northwest of Kirkland Lake, all located in the Province of Ontario.

It then goes on to describe Blue Quartz in more detail, including the results of limited drilling programs back in 2010 and 2011 which returned hits such as 2.0m of 13.95 g/t gold at a depth of 340m. It finishes the description with “To date the mineralized zone is open to depth and down plunge with indications that the hydrothermal alteration system is increasing in intensity along with both the grade and width of the mineralization”, which is probably going to be connected with the promo on this stock if Blue Quartz turns out to be the main thrust of OLA this year. However, OLA may have other plans and a new project to fold into the company, I have no special information to offer you on that.

All in all, just the calibre of the mining men on board this play makes it very interesting and with the $7m placement now signalling that the company is about to come alive, this is your heads up on a potential exploreco trade for the second half of 2016. At present I do not own any shares and I don’t plan to change that in the near future. If I decide to buy I’ll tell you first.



Disclosure: I neither own or recommend OLA or PRO.

CEO.ca stealing IKN content once again

Right here: And just in case it disappears, here's a screenshot:



Which is a direct copy, word for word, of this post from yesterday with no link or attribution offered. My thanks to reader T for the heads-up on this. Frank Guistra's puppet Tommy Humphreys owes IKN another apology. But being the two-faced scam-runner that he is, I doubt this one will appear either.

There are few things that would give me more pleasure...

...than seeing this initiative become successful. Therefore here's the full NR, with all the links and everything.

TORONTO , July 14, 2016 /CNW/ - The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) today launched the Office of the Whistleblower, the first paid whistleblower program by a securities regulator in Canada . The OSC also published OSC Policy 15-601 Whistleblower Program, which outlines the program's eligibility criteria and reflects input received from stakeholders on the program.
The OSC's whistleblower program offers compensation of up to $5 million to individuals who come forward with tips that lead to enforcement action. The program accepts tips on possible violations of Ontario securities law, including illegal insider trading, market manipulation, and accounting and disclosure violations.
"Our whistleblower program is a powerful addition to our enforcement arsenal and a game-changer for securities enforcement in Canada ," said Maureen Jensen , Chair and CEO of the OSC. "The program will enhance our ability to protect investors and achieve better outcomes for our markets by helping us identify and pursue violations of securities law that may only come to light through a whistleblower."
The program has in place and offers important whistleblower protections. Whistleblowers can report anonymously, and the OSC will make all reasonable efforts to protect the confidentiality of whistleblowers. Anti-reprisal provisions have been added to the Securities Act ( Ontario ), allowing the OSC to take enforcement action against employers who retaliate against whistleblowers and rendering as unenforceable contractual provisions designed to silence a whistleblower.
"Our program provides significant incentives for whistleblowers to come forward and offers robust protections," said Kelly Gorman , Chief of the Office of the Whistleblower. "These protections apply even if the information provided to the OSC does not result in enforcement action or does not meet the criteria for an award."
The Office of the Whistleblower is now open to accept tips through its dedicated website at www.officeofthewhistleblower.ca. Individuals are encouraged to come forward and report possible violations of Ontario securities law. Whistleblowers can report anonymously if they are represented by a lawyer. To be eligible for an award, whistleblowers, and the information they submit, must meet specific criteria outlined in the OSC's whistleblower policy.
The mandate of the OSC is to provide protection to investors from unfair, improper or fraudulent practices and to foster fair and efficient capital markets and confidence in the capital markets. Investors are urged to check the registration of any persons or company offering an investment opportunity and to review the OSC investor materials available at www.osc.gov.on.ca
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SOURCE Ontario Securities Commission


The heavy volume in Dalradian (DNA.to) continues

Another 6.3m in the first couple of hours this morning, following on from yesterday's block trade.






Though also must say that I only have one eye on the market right now, the debacle that is the Tour de France organization committee is far more interesting. Less rubbernecking a car crash, more like a motorbike/bike crash.

INV Metals (INV.to)

Good new pre-feas. Which is good, I'm long this one.

Oh yeah, nearly forgot, here's the NR.  

UPDATE: INV rallying nicely this morning and up 24% so far this morning on the news, which is even stronger considering it's a gold down day.

7/13/16

A 6m share block of Dalradian (DNA.to) was traded this afternoon...

...at CAD$1.03. Any relationship between this and the weekend news that Sprott Toronto are sellers of large chunks of DNA is, of course, purely coincidental.

Taseko (TKO.to) (TGB) pays its part from petty cash

Taseko (TGB), (TKO.to), 75% owner of Gibraltar, must be laughing hard at the toothless nature of Canadian environmental penalties:

WILLIAMS LAKE, BC, July 13, 2016 /CNW/ - Gibraltar Mines Ltd. was ordered to pay $70,000 on June 29, 2016, in British Columbia Provincial Court after pleading guilty to five offences under the Fisheries Act related to the Metal Mining Effluent Regulations (MMER). Between August 15, 2014, and May 31, 2015, the company failed to complete environmental monitoring as required under the regulations, failed to submit environmental reports and failed to notify and report on a limit exceedance (sic) in the effluent discharge. full NR here

Then again, we can also bet the opponents of Florence Copper in Arizona project are laughing, too.

Forex people: IKN suggests that you buy the British Pound Sterling (GBP)

Before the market realizes what new Prime Minister Theresa May just said, because right here as part of her first speech as PM...

"...the full title of my party is the Conservative and Unionist party. And that word unionist is very important to me. It means we believe in the union, the precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. But it means something else that is just as important. It means we believe in a union not just between the nations of the United Kingdom but between all of our citizens - every one of us - whoever we are and wherever we’re from."

...she said that he government will put the continued existence of The UK before Brexit. In other words, Scotland just got very important. Here's the GBP/USD pair chart...



...so mark that at 1.32 and come back in a week's time.

The near-term future of Dynasty Metals and Mining (DMM.to) (DMMIF)

It's going to be kind of difficult to get this exactly right as there are plenty of possible variations possible to this them, but we can sketch out a rough roadmap:

  • End July: DMM goes into technical default on its Vertex loan
  • August: Vertex gives them a few days' worth of leeway, no money forthcoming, Vertex calls in the loan, DMM goes into default, shares halted, receivers called in.
  • September: Receivers sell Jerusalem to Ian Telfer, pay debts owed to employees and suppliers.
  • Also September: Eric Sprott reaches a deal with Vertex, takes some of the debt. Company recapitalized via debt-for-shares deal that dilutes current shareholders to kingdom come. Vertex and Eric become main shareholders.
  • 2017: Dynasty name change to Studmuffin Mining Inc, Zaruma re-started.

But many variables possible, of course. Not least the timing or the name of the new company. Maybe they just go for Elipe Gold or something. But however it pans out, you don't want to be holding DMM equities when the process starts next month.

Yeah you're right, that IKN zinc call has been pretty good so far, thanks for reminding me

Here's the IKN364 piece, published May 1st. And here's how it kicked off:

Zinc: Demand to outstrip supply in 2016
Yes, shameful but it’s true, your author is going all zinc-pumpy on you after sneering at the “it’s gonna happen anytime now folks!” perma-pumping of the sellside in zinc for years. This “Get On Zinc Before It Flies!!!” is a narrative (with obligatory three exclamation marks) that’s been sold to us for years, but this time it really seems to have some fundamentals to back up the wishful thinking..." continues here

And here's a price chart of spot zinc:



B2Gold 2q16 production: Masbate saves the day

The 57k+ production at Masbate digs B2 out of a hole.


NR here

I can't spot any similarity between these Great Panther (GPR.to) (GPL) headlines

Can you?





No....nope...the connection just escapes me.

And no, IKN isn't calling Robert Archer a hypocritical piece of shit by signing off on a NR that ends, "Great Panther is fully committed to providing a safe working environment by striving to eliminate safety and health hazards to the fullest extent possible", whatever made you even suspect such a nefarious thought?

7/12/16

To celebrate the fact that...

...I noticed just a day or two ago that the blog has just gone through ten million visits since inception, I've stuck the Google Blogger statcounter up there in the top right-hand corner of the blog.


Hoorah, champagne etc.

Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): Sprott selling

From IKN374, out last Sunday



Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): Sprott selling
There were several interesting SEDAR filings on Friday and we’ve already mentioned a couple of them above. Here we note that according to its July 8th  filing (24) Sprott as at June 30th has disposed of 4,423,240 shares and 518,478 warrants of DNA.  This moves the total Sprott holding in DNA to 15,587,171 shares and 5,763,750 warrants, which is 9.6% of fully diluted shares. That’s 2.3% less than its last filing and the reason for the threshold trigger filings. We hear it’s the Toronto end of Sprott that’s doing the selling and we hear it’s because they don’t trust the mining widths in the plan.

Although I closed my personal position in DNA.to a while back for a pleasant sized win, these pages called Sell on DNA.to in IKN372, the weekend after Brexit, due to the heightened political risk of operating in Northern Ireland. As this chart shows, since then the stock has basically flatlined (and held stubbornly to the CAD$1 level), which is a clear underperformance compared to the market for PM stocks.




Bought deals

When it's an exploreco doing its thing with no production then yeah, I get it, that's the model, they sell shares to bring in necessary working capital. Normal.

But can anyone explain to me why companies such as Copper Mountain (CUM.to now raising $5m) and Great Panther Silver (just closed on nearly $30m) that have been in production for years are now going to market and selling shares in bought deals? 

And explain without using the phrase "piss poor companies managed by idiots and funded by people even more stupid than they are" please.


Orla Mining (OLA.v) is looking at Pershimco Resources (PRO.v)

Word reaches your humble scribe this morning that Orla Mining (OLA.v-H), the NEX listed TSXV shell that's just financed to the tune of $7m and is aggregate 66% owned by Marc Prefontaine, Hans Smit, Troy Fierro, Richard Hall, John Graham and Pierre Lassonde, is doing deep DD on Pershimco Resources (PRO.v) with a view to a possible deal.

I don't own either stock and that's not going to change. As for an opinion, PRO has some interesting rocks at Cerro Quema in Panama but there's a lot of hair on the corporate and country risk sides of the equation, so getting to a final deal isn't a given in my opinion. But the all-star cast at OLA will be an advantage (including with the Panama authorities) and at least Pierre can talk to les Bureau (x?) in a language they understand.

CUM shot high

Copper Mountain (CUM.to) saw its production shoot up, managing to deliver a large load in 2q16.


Production of 21.2m lbs at the mine is the best for a while. Breaking down the quarter, CUM produced 6.4m lbs in April, 7.5m lbs in May and 7.3m lbs in June. Reach for a cigarette, guys...

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) 2q16 production

FVI produced less than 33,000 ounces of gold equivalent...

 ...and now has a market cap of over U$1.1Bn...

 
...and there are still people telling me this isn't  bull market for precious metals stocks.





7/11/16

Subprime

One of the key ingredients of the 2008 debt crisis was the way in which subprime mortgage debt was re-packaged by financial geniuses in new and innovative ways. For sure it's a complicated story, but at the bottom of it all...
  • The world offered large home loans to people with bad credit ratings.
  • Those were considered subprime loans at the moment of creation.
  • But the clever financial people in the stock market bought up big packages of these cheap assets, mixed them with a few assets with better credit ratings and, with the compliance of the oversight bodies, turned the whole new package into AAA rated investment vehicles.
  • The market didn't look at what was inside these new and wonderful packages, didn't check out the quality of the assets that backed up the paper, didn't think to ask whether they were viable or whether their apparent fixed asset value was a mirage and simply created out of somebody's fertile imagination. No, the market in all its wisdom fell for the story and just bought the wrapping paper. 
  • The people behind this imaginative and innovative idea to re-package near-worthless fixed assets to make it look like a gilt-edged investment opportunity made a lot of money for themselves and their bosses and were hailed as financial heroes, for a while at least. 
  • And the rest is history.

Here's a 12 month chart of First Mining Finance (FF.v):



We love innovation.

The wonderful thing that is the Baja Mining (BAJ.v) news release of today

Nobody in their right investment mind has paid attention to Baja Mining (BAJ.v) and its disastrous Boleo mine thing for many years, but all the same you should all read the NR out of BAJ this morning. Only for the laughs. 
 
It's so impressive and a catalogue of so many bad things that I don't really know where to start, but perhaps my favourite bit is the use of the phrase "unscheduled maintenance". Or maybe it's the underground conditions remain more severe than ever anticipated bit. Or maybe the cobalt circuit snafu bit. Or maybe the cash call and dilution bit. Or maybe the workers resigning bit. Or maybe the strike bit. Or maybe the director resignation bit. My stars, so much FUBAR, so little time.

Question: When did Louis Lobito Little Wolf James call sell on Continental Gold (CNL.to)?

Answer: January 17th 2016 as confirmed by this Casey Research (i.e. Stansberry Research) bulletin sent the day after:

And let's see how that one was timed:



Yup, right at the bottom. This call came just before Lobito's Top Pick trade for 2016, made on January 21st: Buy SDS.


Impressive consistency, Lobito

7/10/16

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN374 has just been sent to subscribers. Another 16,300 words over 34 pages, full of fun and frolics. I enjoyed writing this one.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "The IKN Weekly on April 10th 2016: "It’s time to be long gold stocks...to buy and hold... to position for the big wins, not the small fliptrades"" which explains why you're better off going fishing than wasting your neurons on the market.

Second Place: "Regulus Resources Raises". The epitome of the well-timed, shareholder-friendly placement.

First Place: "Daryl Hodges' marijuana empire", which is all good, the more light shone upon this excuse of a person the better. And anyone reading that one needs to read the follow-up post too.