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10/22/16

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "The junior mining shakedown, as explained in the year 1377". I'm glad this one just managed to squeeze into the frame as it's by far my favourite thing of the week. What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.


Second Place: "Avino (ASM.v) (ASM) 3q16 production". A short post with just a single chart, but clearly on a company around which people are sniffing. There's more details on ASM's quarter of production and other things in the Weekly out tomorrow, subbers.

 
First Place: "Gary Tanashian...". I think this one became the most viewed post of the week because Gary linked back to it from his place (and he gets a lot of hits, quite right too). But for whatever reason it's a fitting top spot, he's been calling the market very well recently as this shout-out post documented. You really should subscribe to his weekly missive, I read it every week without fail because it's excellent (though for full disclosure I don't pay, we do barter on each others' work...and I get the better end of that deal).

10/21/16

Hey, I wonder why Metanor (MTO.v) left it until late on a Friday to file its annuals?

Is it the 75m shares added in the year?
Is it the $0.78m negative working cap?


Or is it this, the accountancy violin concerto?

During the quarter ended June 30, 2016, the operating income totaled $6,162,768 compared to a loss of $1,503,017 in 2015. The revenue, cost of sales and gross loss totaled $15,492,036, $15,636,711 and $144,675 respectively compared to $13,989,447, $14,424,851 and $435,404 in 2015. This increase of $7,665,785 is mainly explained by the reversal of an impairment charge on exploration and evaluation assets of $10,586,490 and the impairment of property, plant and equipment of $3,050,000.

The paid pumpers who'll shove this in your face on Monday, example Jay Taylor and Thibault Laputain*, will skip over the bullshit asset re-rating and point to a non-existent paper profit. The single worst gold mining company in Canada, anyone owning this needs specialist psychiatric help. Eric Sprott and Nolan Watson, step forward.

*i think that's how you spell it :-)

The Friday OT: BT; Indivism

BT is out with a new album, called _

Yes, seriously, it's called "_", as in "underbar". So we now have an artist with a two letter name and a single minor keystroke for his latest work. So be it, but a rose by any other etc because this three suite album is just plain fabbo. Here's the second suite in its entirety, called Indivism.




Youtube here.

It's been a good week...

...for the portfolio (assuming  a relatively smooth run in the next four hours this Friday) and I just noticed, while doing some preliminary work on numbers for The IKN Weekly for Sunday that of the 14 stocks we currently cover, a full 13 are up on the week, including one up 25+%, three others up 12% and a whole gaggle in the 6% to 8% range. So it's fun to note (this end at least) that the only stock I've received mail on this week has been the one loser of the 14. Such is the way of the the job, I suppose :-)

However, content here on the blog has been light. That's probably because it gets tougher to be snarky about the sector when things are going well. Then again, it's going to be even thinner next week, what with the four day trip I'm on. Have a pleasant weekend.

10/20/16

The Muck Pile: Teddy Salad is growing on me already

This is my kind of blogger. Muckpile Mike I salute you, you've found an excellent voice to take over the space. Teddy Salad I doff my cap, you are a welcome and much-needed addition to the blogosphere, sir.

Aberfan

50 years.

Wesdome (WDO.to) trading

I've heard more rumours than I've had hot dinners about Wesdome (WDO.to) in the last couple of days, most of them centred around the pending drill numbers from Kiena, apparently about to hit any day now. So it's interesting to see the PPS fall off a mini cliff a few minutes ago, there are some fun'n'games going on in this stock now, it seems.


On seeing the share price getting thrown around like that I was reminded of the larger players in the stock that had their plans rebuffed and promptly withdrew chunks of their cash to put it into...IMPACT Silver at a buck. Oops.

Well Mister Ogilvie, I think this is probably wise under the circumstances

From the Ruby Con NR just out:


"The Company plans to commence Phase 1 of a comprehensive exploration program following the successful completion of the Restructuring Transaction and after a period of transition. The goal of the exploration program is to gain a better understanding of the geology of the F2 Gold Deposit..."

That and the "we dilute existing shareholders to 5%" are the funniest bits.

Inspired by reader JM, this:







The junior mining shakedown, as explained in the year 1377

Dear IKN reader, promise to read the quote in this one because it's simply wonderful. 

One of IKN's fave readers and mailpals (so shy he doesn't even like to see his initials) sent in a quote from The Muqaddimah, written in 1377 by Ibn Khaldun, that he found used in a professional study book The 48 Rules of Power, by Robert Greene. For more on The Muqaddimah and its author do what I've been doing this morning and check out this fascinating wikipedia page but we'll get straight to the quote, you'll see just why my mailpal thought of the junior mining world.

"Many weak-minded persons in cities hope to discover  property under the surface of the earth and to make some profit from it. In the Maghrib there are many Berber "students" who are unable to make a living by natural ways and means. They approach well-to-do people with papers that have torn margins and contain either non-Arabic writing or what they claim to be the translation of a document written by the owner of buried treasures, giving the clue to the hiding place. In this way. they try to get sustenance by (persuading the well-to-do) to send them out to dig and hunt for treasure. Occasionally one of these treasure hunters displays strange information or some remarkable trick of magic with which he fools people into believing his other claims, although, in fact, he knows nothing of magic and its procedures...

"The things that have been said about (treasure hunting) have no scientific basis, nor are they based upon (factual) information. It should be realized that although treasures are found, this happens rarely and by chance, not by systematic search... Those who are deluded or afflicted by these things must take refuge in God from their inability to make a living and their laziness in this respect. They should not occupy themselves with absurdities and untrue stories."

THE MUQADDIMAH
IBN KHALDUN
1332 - 1406

And that's the best thing I'm going to do on the blog today all week this year. Many thanks, A. Person.

10/19/16

Nothing Stands Out Quite Like a Cadillac Eldorado in South America

Here's the Road & Track report and here's the video that goes with it.



Geology, too. Enjoy.

Regarding Chubut and the possible referendum on mining

This op-ed is exactly right. Extract here (translated)

To stay outside such a traumatic and politically incorrect decision the government has passed the ball over to the population. If the referendum is positive for mining, the governor will say that "The majority decision must be respected"....if the decision is a negative Das Neves with his best "It wasn't me" face will tell Macri, "Sorry Mau, I wanted it but the people said no".

Full thing here. Go read it all, practice your Spanish and find out just why Chubut governor Mario das Neves is one of the most astute political animals in his country.

Chart of the day is...

...gold, the Kitco live chart (found here):




On the one hand it's only $10/oz or so higher than the top end of recent days, not exactly the crown jewels. But on the other it's $20+ higher than this time yesterday and a snap out of the range and gives reason for optimism and thoughts about gold re-taking $1.3k.

10/18/16

The Muck Pile returns

The best mining blog in the Great White North is back! Yes indeed, IKN is ravished to announce that you need to put The Muck Pile back on your RSS because as from today it's up and running again. There is a difference over there though, as previous blogmeister Muckpile Mike has handed over to one 'Teddy Salad' as your host. Let's see how things get on.  

Check out the blog right here and welcome Teddy, make Mike proud.

Jaime Pinto goes to geology class

Hey, you remember Jaime Pinto, the toerag hired by Team Hodges to ruin Minera IRL and asset strip it to Polon's pally pals? Well since he was...
...kicked out of Minera IRL by its shareholders
...fired from Peru O&G company Relapasa for helping to run it into the ground
...kicked out of a local pension fund for recommending Relapasa as a good investment
...and even being kicked off the board of a company as doggy as Lupaka Gold (LPK.v)
...he's been at a loose end, without much to do and a lot of day to fill. Now obviously he can't schlep around his fave coffee houses trying to drum up business all day so this afternoon he decided to do something he never bothered to do in the whole of 2015, he learned a bit about Minera IRL's Ollachea project. He went along and decided to take a front row seat at the presentation of the project at a Peru geology conference, the talk given by the man who stood up to him at IRL and exposed his nefarious ways, Diego Benavides. Here's the montage photo of Benavides at the podium and below, there's our unemployed pal Jaime Pinto:


Doesn't he look attentive? I wonder what he's thinking? Something like "Hey if I hadn't been a dishonest bastard with everybody and tried to steal the company away from its shareholders, that could have been me up there", perhaps? Could be...

An hour and a half of my life...

...that I will never get back was spent today on the telephone with this person and her charming, like-minded colleagues at my bank:



Bless their hearts, they lived up to their parents' expectations of them. Grumble and harrumph over, thank you for your attention.

PS: Learn all about Carol Beer here.

Atico Mining (ATY.v) 3q16 production

NR here, chart here:

The gold production total is just noise, what counts here is copper.

Yup, bottom's in all right

This humble corner of cyberspace's comment after seeing this spike down...



...was, "Bottom's in, ladies and gentlemen. Get used to the idea." And yes, I know you find me less annoying when I'm wrong.

Any further questions?

How Porter Stansberry fakes his track record

Here's a typical example from this scamster and liar. In his October 17th update to subscribers, he tries to make out that his service recommended Lundin Gold (LUG.to) at the price of $4.60 on April 5th 2016. Here's the screenshot of the table included in his letter:


 
 
That's bullshit. On that date, 4/5/16, LUG.to traded just 3,500 shares all day. The same nothing happened again the next day, April 6th, when just 6,600 shares of LUG changed hands. It was only when his recommendation rolled out to clients on April 7th that the volume moved:

April 7th 140,000 shares traded, close $5.09
April 8th 167,500 shares traded, close $5.83

Et cetera. The chances of any of his stupid, sheep-like clients having bought LUG.to at his falsely advertised $4.60 are zero, because they simply didn't know. The chances of them getting in at under $5.00 are bottom-end minimal, because they all charged in during the first two days and the vast majority of them would have paid $5.50 and more. And this is just one example, there are many more like it but small things like truth and facts never bother a piece of shit lying scumball like Porter Stansberry.

Gary Tanashian...

...at Notes From The Rabbit Hole has been calling the market extremely well recently. And though you gain plenty of value from his free stuff, you really ought to subscribe to his weekly letter as the combination of his work ethic and insight is second to none. He covers my back on so many macro issues and lets me focus on my own things. Unbeatable service at the price he charges.

And no, he doesn't know I'm writing this. And no, I'm not paid to write it. It's just a plain straight unsolicited testimonial.

GLD bullion inventories keep going up

Gold price flatlines, but somebody somewhere doesn't care. The buying in GLD gold continues, the inventory level swells.


I happened to mention the trend on Friday, since then another 5.64 metric tonnes of gold has been added to the pot. Data here.

Argonaut Gold (AR.to) 3q16

It's worst quarter of production and sales since 1q13:


Because it rained, poor little snowflakes. NR here.

10/17/16

Tinka Resources (TK.v) news

The 50m share placement priced at 20c (with no warrant) is full. It took four business days to fill the book. Not shabby.

Las Bambas: A death that matters (from IKN388)

Part of yesterday's IKN Weekly IKN388. This isn't just a problem for Las Bambas, the whole of the copper mining industry needs to pay attention to this development.

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Las Bambas: Trucks are the problem
“Relax. Nothing is under control.“
Adi Da Samray

As noted on the blog late Friday, one man died during clashes between with police in Peru when locals blocked roads to protest about trucks coming out of the Las Bambas copper mine in the highland Apurimac region. We now have more details, as the protests happened around 50km from the mine, the clashes were very violent and along with the dead person, reports are of scores of locals and 20 police officers injured.

So what’s the problem? The answer is very poor community planning by MMG, owners of Las Bambas, as well as previous owners Xstrata. Once upon a time when Las Bambas was owned by Xstrata (later taken over by Glencore) the plan was to build a 215km concentrates pipeline to connect the mine to the Xstrata-owned Tintaya mine, a little closer to the coast. From there it would join the existing transport infrastructure. But in the end the pipeline plan was deemed too expensive and dropped. Cut to today and Las Bambas now close to its full production rhythm, no pipeline built, the concentrate has to get to the coast somehow and we end up with this being published by Reuters (10):

Congressman Richard Arce, who represents Apurimac, said the man was shot dead by police and that scores of people from towns nearby were also wounded.
A photograph from the clash provided by Arce's office showed a man lying belly-up on blood-stained stones in a field.
The protesters were upset because of the heavy dust and noise on the road where trucks transport the Chinese-owned mine's copper concentrates, Solano and Arce said.
"On a recent visit I saw 97 trucks carrying 30 tonnes of concentrates in 22 minutes. Passing by in front of people's homes," Arce said. "That would be outrageous to anyone."

The facts back that up. According to the latest figures from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mining website (11), Las Bambas  produced 34,983 metric tonnes of copper in the month of August 2016 alone, that’s right on its expected production clip. I don’t have the exact figure at hand but the conc there is known to be higher grades than the industry average and I’ve heard off-record that they’re running it at 30% copper, so if we run with that number we can estimate Las Bambas needs to ship out 116,667 metric tonnes of material to the coast of Peru per month. At 30 metric tonnes per truck that’s 3,889 truck trips per month, though I’d expect some trucks are overloaded somewhat (in typical Peru fashion) and carry an average of 40mt per trip, so that would be 2917 trips. So taking everything into account and splitting differences, let’s call it 3,400 trucks a month.

As there are 720 hours in a (30 day) month, that’s an average 4.7 trucks per hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year rumbling past your (previously quiet and bucolic) farmhouse 50km from the mine site. And as that includes all night-time hours, the true figure is more likely to be ten trucks an hour in the daytime (one every six minutes) and as they’ll naturally bunch into a convoy formation on the way down, Congressman Richard Arce is right. And then they have to come back up the hill again. My stars the locals must be pissed with this sudden deterioration in their lifestyles, let alone things like danger and the dust (often on dirt track unpaved roads) and let’s note, this problem and last week’s violent flare-up that left one dead (social media unofficially reports three dead) and many dozens injured was 40km to 50km away from the mine and not in the zone of influence where locals get financial support. All of the annoyance, none of the compensation and if nothing is done it’s only going to get worse when the Haquira project owned by First Quantum and located just down the road from Las Bambas comes online in a few years’ time.

I could go on about this, there are several directions in which this analysis could continue but the most obvious one is that cutting corners and doing things on the cheap in a country with poor internal transport infrastructure such as Peru is a recipe for community disaster. Peru is currently marketing itself as the place to go big pit mining and a better option than Chile (for example) because of its lower cost base. What we see above is the flipside of cheap, which can turn out to be far more expensive for all concerned, be it company, local residents or the country itself, than doing things the right way from the beginning. Also, be clear that this particular combination of infrastructure and community risk is going to be a growing concern across the whole LatAm region and can apply to Colombia, Ecuador (hello SolGold) and Andean Argentina, as well as this corner of Peru. However Peru is a decent test case, as its infrastructure varies greatly depending on where you are (e.g. Cajamarca is generally good, Apurimac is particularly bad). Interestingly and as a final thought (without labouring the point, as I really could spend pages on the subject) Chile holds a massive advantage here.

Avino (ASM.v) (ASM) 3q16 production

NR here, chart below:



Looks kind of boring, but in fact that's quite interesting.

10/16/16

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN388 has just been sent to subscribers. Plenty of meat on the bone this week.

Ameduri's latest pump: Inca One (IO.v)

Ok, this one's just plain hilarious. Via the Future Money Trends Mini-Me site "Wealth Research Group (Daniel Ameduri puts some other bozo as frontman, but the reality is obvious) these scamsters are pushing the utter dog Inca One (IO.v) at their idiot band of sheep. And why are they doing so?
"We have also entered into an agreement with the company and currently have been paid four hundred and fifty thousand dollars for a one year marketing program."
Yup, $450,000 reasons to rip people off.

Bruce Bragagnolo, failed miner and now insider stock pumper. My stars, how they fall.
As for the company, anyone who can read a balance sheet will just burst out laughing at this "top pick for 2016 - 2017", as even after the recent $6.3m placement raising it's still working cap negative. Then there's the details about how they have no formal permit to operate, no EIA and the whole thing is being covered by the "in formalization" temporary ruling in Peru. When that runs out, IO.v closes down.

PS: By the way Scammy Danny, when I read this bit...



...I laughed until my sides hurt. You really are a clown of the highest order. The only people more stupid than you are the people who read you and believe this bullshit.

UPDATE: Reader 'C' writes in:
Do I get that right? That it is legal for a Canadian junior CEO to pay 450k of investor money to some shady marketing company that then starts feeding stupid people that want to believe empty phrases of vague information about a time frame long enough to claim "wait and see" and promises rainbows and lollipops which leads to rising share prices and lets the CEO then earn a fortune on his options?
And this marketing company then even criticizes Wall Street jerks about their greedy actions that doom the world. I wonder how those people can sleep at night...

To answer your question, C: Yes.