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1/7/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Minera IRL up 200% in early trading". The IKN fetish stock is up, running, trading again and thanks to the fact rip-off board led by two-faced Weyrauch was kicked out, the benefit is going to the shareholders.


Second Place: "Golden Dawn (GOM.v): It takes a lot for me to ask this question...", an example of the lengths these moose pasture salespeople will go in order to get some cash on board their intrinsically worthless companies. You want Red Flag? You got Red Flag. 
 
First Place: "The Angry Geologist does Arizona Mining (AZ.to)...", in which we note how TAG has joined in on the AZ.to piñata funtime. Also don't miss his follow-up post that spotlighted the sleight of hand used by AZ.to to bury inconvient....truths?

1/6/17

Arizona Mining's (AZ.to) sleight of hand doesn't get past Angry Geologist

Very interesting update post on Arizona Mining (AZ.to) over at Angry Geologist this Friday afternoon. Link here, go see how AZ.to is trying to cover its promo-pumpo tracks with a bit of revisionism.

The Friday OT: Kate Bush; King of the Mountain

Dedicated to S.



Youtube here.

Continental Gold (CNL.to) fails again at $4.50

Getting to be quite a habit:



It's almost as if the stock price is being delibera.....NAAH! Surely not!

Kung Hei Fat Choi Copper

The Chinese New Year is just three and a bit weeks away (Jan 28th this time around) and we can already see its shadow in the SHFE copper inventory levels:

Shooting up already, 70k+ from the recent lows. Recall that in last year's re-stocking period, SHFE inventories reached almost 400k.

Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO): So bad even Scotia couldn't ignore it

Last night IKN called TAHO's 4q16 "mediocre", this morning it's down nearly 8% but the funny thing is how the Canadian brokerage world all focussed on the crappy 2017 guidance and studiously ignored the crappy production numbers posted (because under-promise/over-deliver?). No folks, it's not down today because the company is going to be disappointing in the future, it's down today because it's already in a mess. As seen yesterday...

...Escobal has been seriously underachieving for the last two quarters now (and seriously pissing off the locals by first ruining their houses and then lying though their teeth by pretending they've reached an amicable agreement with the people around the mine).

But the funniest one is how even Scotia called the NR contents "slightly disappointing". For context on that please remember that the Senior Precious Metals Analyst at Scotia, Tanya Jakusconek, just happens to be on the Board of Directors of TAHO! Looks like she's in for a shellacking from Ferrari Kev for not keeping her sales desk grunts on a tighter leash.

UPDATE: I'm sorry, did I say 8% down? I meant 13% down.

1/5/17

Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v)

Expect plenty of news and views on CDB.v in this weekend's edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN399.

Gold rally update

On December 29th 2016, with gold at U$1,145/oz, this humble corner of cyberspace ran this post which started this way:


"Expect gold to touch U$1,180/oz before my eldest child's 13th birthday*"

And explained the reason behind the call, too. Today we made that 1180 and with a couple of days to go before the deadline too.



Any further questions?

Tahoe Resources 4q16 production results

Here's the NR, here's a couple of charts.

Silver here:


Gold here:

Silver production sucked. The gold numbers will paper over the cracks thanks to a good quarter at La Arena and a return to correct numbers at the ex-Lake Shore mines, but Shahuindo is still way under-performing. Overall; mediocre.



Minera IRL up 200% in early trading

Between late yesterday and early this morning, the first trades of Minera IRL have gone through since its long hiatus was brought to an end by the re-listing of shares on the Peru stock exchange (BVL). So far a modest 1.2m shares have changed hands so it's a bit early to draw firm conclusions, but the current price of the stock is U$0.165. That's the equivalent of CAD$0.21 approx, which compares to the stock's last traded price of CAD$0.07 in Canada before the Daryl Hodges scamsters tried to steal the company from its shareholders.

This 200% price rise is also the reason why the last board of rip-off merchants, led by the Eagle Mining trio of Weyrauch, Bee and Schafer and abetted by Bavin and O'Kelly, were so slow about getting the stock re-listed but so so keen on getting the chance to distribute over 115m new shares to the people of their choice.

But fortunately, instead of being ripped off shareholders decided to kick out the board of scamsters and now under the guidance of Diego Benavides they're getting the upside they deserve.

UPDATE: Minera IRL finished the day in Lima at U$0.148 but the fun thing was the volume, over 2.5m shares traded. Also interesting was the way stockbroker Seminario SAB was phoning round every small holder of IRL they could find, trying to convince them to sell into this opening flush. That's because Napoleon Valdez was using Seminario SAB to buy hand over fist and get his hands on as many shares as he could.

1/4/17

Mazumdar does BNN

Right here. Joe M talks the prospects for gold and other metals too. Mariana and Richmont get an airing, plus market timing leverage and beta and all that sexy talk. Well worth your six and a bit minutes, better tastes in ties than Brent too.

Chart of the day is...

...the forex between the Argentina Peso (ARS) and the United States Dollar (USD) for the last six months:


Why six months? That's because President Macri promised his people that the austerity measures introduced when he became Prez would begin to kick in during the second half of 2016, that Argentina's macro scenario would improve, that the short-term pain the country was going through would all be worth it. Well folks, that short-term is already medium-term, precious little improvement has shown through, the economy is still stuck and all that shows in the most basic of all the macro numbers. I mean, would you swap your dollars for pesos in order to FDI into Argentina after looking at that chart?

Chart from XE.com, who do nice forex charts.

1/3/17

Minera IRL; The trading suspension is lifted at the Peru stock market

Ahh, good news for all long-suffering shareholders of Minera IRL:
  • First go here, to the Minera IRL page on the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) website.
  • Then click "hechos de importancia".
  • Then the document icon, as seen ringed here below:

If you do that, a PDF pops up which says a lot of things in Spanish on its four pages, but the big thing is this on page 3

That's the first and most important of the five resolutions as passed by the BVL on IRL in that document and what it means is simple: The BVL has allowed Minera IRL to re-list its shares and start trading again. This is very good news, because this is the main blockage for re-listing in Canada and the UK, too. IRL is back, ladies and gentlemen and isn't it amazing that as soon as the bad boards of directors are removed, the paperwork suddenly goes through and the company starts putting its shareholders first. Must be a coincidence...

UPDATE: Just received confirmation from the BVL: Minera IRL shares will begin trading again tomorrow morning, Wednesday January 4th.

Golden Dawn (GOM.v): It takes a lot for me to ask this question...

...especially as we're talking about the world of junior mining companies, where Bistromatics reigns supreme and literally hundreds of companies are run by people who don't even know how to turn on a pocket calculator, let alone use one, but I'm going to have to ask it all the same. It concerns the NR out of Golden Dawn (GOM.v) this morning and the question is:

Is this the worst ever financing deal done by a junior mining company?

Inquiring minds (etc). The headline tells us that an outfit called RIVI Capital LLC has agreed to loan GOM.v U$4m, most already sent over and the balance in by mid-February. So far so lahdy-lah, but then the terms of the deal show up and explain how GOM.v ("the company") is going to re-pay the loan. IKN quotes:
"The Company is obligated to deliver 13.5% of the gold production limited to the Lexington and Golden Crown Mines for US $ 400 per ounce to a total of 15,000 oz. Post-delivery of 15,000 oz at US $ 400 per oz, the percentage of production from the Lexington and Golden Crown Mines to be delivered to RIVI will be reduced to 6.75%, and the price per oz. of gold paid by RIVI to the company will increase to US $ 650 per oz."
WOAH! Say that again???

RIVI lends GOM.v U$4m, then GOM.v has to deliver 15,000 oz gold to RIVI, for which RIVI pays U$400/oz? WTF? Just that bit has me going ouch ouch stoppit it hurts, because even if we factor in today's modest U$1,150/oz price for the shiny stuff the math goes...

(U$1,150/oz - U$400) X 15,000 oz = U$11.25m in net profit for a U$4m loan.

...and Shylock (aka Kevin Puil, serial junior director and one time equities anal yst) is alive and well and living in San Francisco California. But even that isn't the end of the fun, because RIVI gets gravy poured all over its deal by getting 6.75% of subsequent gold production at GOM.v over life of mines (plural), at U$650/oz. All of which is crazy. I mean, Rick Rule would offer easier terms than these.

Hey, wouldn't it be amazing to find out that Puil and David Hodges of Zimtu had a long-term and cozy business relationship?




The single best trade for 2017 in two easy to follow steps

It's a simple and highly effective strategy:

1) Wait for Casey Research's Louis James "Top Pick of 2017" selection, which is about to be unveiled any day now.
2) Bet against it.

And the good news is that evidence abounds for this trade idea:

In 2014, his number one biggest position and bang-on-table stock pick pump was Banks Island Gold (ex-BOZ). He even started screaming louder about it to his subscribers in March 2014, as seen here. BOZ.v proceeded to go bankrupt. Yes indeed, both he and all the people daft enough to believe the stopped-clock stupidity published by Casey Research lost all their money, every last cent.

In 2015, his number one biggest position and bang-on-table stock pick pump was Rubicon  Minerals (ex-RMX). And as it turns out this one also went bankrupt and his subscribers lost untold amounts of cash due to his abject stupidity, gullibility and lack of basic knowledge.

Then in 2016, Louis Lobito Little Wolf James chose to steer clear of junior miners for his Top Pick for the year. Instead he plumped for the Pro Share Ultrashort S&500 ETF (SDS) as his best idea in January and wrote (we quote), "Shorting the NYSE is my number one recommendation for this year". Here's how that one got on:

Yup, another epic fail, three years in a row. Therefore the trade idea is easy: Just listen out for Lobito's Top Pick, bound to be coming soon with all Porter Scamsberry bells and whistles attached, then fade it with confidence as both history and idiocracy is on your side.


The Angry Geologist does Arizona Mining (AZ.to)...

...and does it twice in one day.

In part one here, TAG does the pretty things.

In part two here, he gives his take on the not--so-pretty metallurgy issue.


All good clean fun for the children and not a single legal action threat in sight from that twat Roger McConchie. Yet.

Silver One (SVE.v)

Just so we're clear, Silver One (SVE.v) is a bullshit scam of the highest order. A Neumeyer/Ameduri worthless pile of junk that's run by front-running, insider selling scumbags. For idiots only. No more mails on this one, please.

Chuck Jeannes...

...is about to find out just how FUBAR the organization and management Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) is with his own eyes.

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Jan. 3, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Tahoe Resources Inc. ("Tahoe" or the "Company") (TSX: THO; NYSE: TAHO) is pleased to announce the appointment of Chuck Jeannes to the Company's Board of Directors effective January 1, 2017.

The first thing to do Chuck? Open that big file entitled "Guatemala Legal Actions".

1/2/17

I can't even begin to tell you how much I agree with John Hempton...

...and his little post-script comment left at the bottom of his latest post, entitled "Valuation and investment analysis".
"PS. If you work for a shop that requires a valuation for everything quit now. The pretence will either kill you or your performance."
Canadian junior mining anal ysts on the IKN daily mailer list, I'm staring you in the face right now. And yes of course you should read the whole thing.

Chart of the day is...

...zinc supply and demand, 2011 to 2016:

NB: Please note cut down Y-axis


Source here.

1/1/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN398 has just been sent to subscribers. Happy new year. All aboard.

Okay, that's funny

Well played Toni Kroos, of Real Madrid and Germany.



Link here.