start here

start here

The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)

8/26/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:


Third Place: "Mo' TAHO: The reasons why the La Arena mine is under blockade".IKN breaks news, the post gets hits. Normal.

Second Place: "Keith Barron of Firestone (FV.v) threatens to sue IKN for defamation". We can report that until today IKN has heard nothing from Mister Barron's lawyers, so this one seems to have stalled at the name-calling stage. I'm an objectionable ass and he's a blowhard.
 
First Place: "Brian Paes-Braga makes it to the party". And we're just warming up round here.

8/25/17

The Friday OT: Calle 13 (ft Rubén Blades): La Perla

Panama's finest hooks up with Residente and Visitante. The result is wonderful start to finish, but when Rubencito kicks in at 3:20 it moves up gears into musical sublimity.



Y tú...qu'ta mirando? 

Youtube here.

The Unbearable Lightness of Being Kevin McArthur

Resign, Kevin. You are an abject failure and a shame on the industry.

Tahoe Resources (TAHO) NR

It's almost suspicious. What is a company with its woeful record of disclosure and transparency doing, telegraphing "unconfirmed sources" on a negative out come in the court? Is the August 28th hearing just a rubberstamp? Anyway, read the NR yourself here.

8/24/17

Brian Paes-Braga makes it to the party

All that talk of just why Tommy Humphreys has suddenly forgotten to talk about K92 Mining on his scam pump site CEO.ca reminded me of the real reason, his pally pal and fellow Frank Giustra asslicker, Brian Paes-Braga, CEO of the Frank Giustra/Stan Bharti lithium thingy Lithium X (LIX.v).

 
Here we see Brian, along with Tommy H (rockin' that body cover Tommy), Frank of course and assorted hangers-on at Giustra's 59th birthday party celebration last week, just before being serenaded by Billy Idol (and I know you all cried More More More, bless your hearts).

It was certainly good to see Paes-Braga there and relaxed at the party, because he almost pissed off his paymaster last year by nearly missing the 2016 party. That's because Paes-Braga had been partying hard in LatAm and silly old him, slept through the next day and missed his vital flight to Vancouver. Luckily there was a solution. What with being CEO of a company with more money than sense he solved the issue and saved his job by phoning his manservant Lucas C, who chartered a jet to get him back to Vancouver and his boss, just in time. All the wasted flight and the crazily expensive last-minute charter was on the LIX.v company coin, of course and later buried in G&A or "investor relations" or something  but hey, who cares about the way these guys spent other people's money, right? Right?

C'mon Brian, give us your best Rebel Yell.

PS: I honestly thought you were older than 59, Frank. You certainly look it. Anyway, feliz cumple che!

K92 Mining (KNT.v): Derek & Clive meets IKN's First Law

The Tommy Humphreys paid whore pump K92 Mining (KNT.v), better known as "The Derek and Clive Stock", ran smack into IKN's First Law of Mining News Releases today. Who knew community relations in Papua New Guinea can be sticky on occasion? Certainly not the greenhorn dumbasses who fell for Humphreys' pump job. Here's an excerpt from Derek & Clive's NR today:

"A meeting was arranged by the MRA between PNG National, Provincial and Local Government agencies, BILA and the Company. On the morning of Thursday 24th August, prior to the meeting commencing on site, a group of landowners represented by BILA entered the mine via the 800 mine portal. The company removed its personnel from the area in an attempt to diffuse the situation without incident. However, during their presence, the group caused major damage to two trucks and one small loader/IT as well as three light vehicles and some underground fixed plant."
Smelly. And here's that law again:
 "The IKN First Law of Mining News Releases: Considering that anything contained in a mining news release is presented in the best possible way for the company in question, any piece of information contained in a NR that comes across in any way negative means the real news and/or events behind it must be very, very bad indeed."
And for a final flourish,  here's how Derek & Clive has done since its first mention on IKN back in November:


What, 59% down Tommy? Funny how this one doesn't get much mention on CEO.ca any longer, innit guv. But don't worry newbie dumbass, Tommy is your friend and he has a new stock tip for you soon.

No profit-takers in Regulus (REG.v)

This ten day chart...



...is as good as it gets in junior world after a market-moving piece of news. Volume drops but the price holds up to the new level, that means no sellers. A sign of a serious company doing things the right way with a top project.

UPDATE: The Angry Geologist does AntaKori. And he's right to love the hole. And I know the answers to his three questions. Click here, learn rockstuff.

Three Thursday Things

1) Bloomie: "Copper Rally Overhyped for Skeptics Seeing Big Discount on Metal". Though reasonably bullish myself, there's a lot to agree with here. I too think this move that pinged U$3/lb is too far too fast and the correction could burn hot money. I too think there's little in the way of fundies demand data to justify this pop. I too watch inventory data.

2) Scotia Scoop reports on the Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) blockade like this:
Tahoe Resources à Reports of La Arena Facing Protestor Blockade: Reports trickling out of Peru yesterday that protestors have blocked access to Tahoe Resources’ (THO-CN/TAHO-US, Not Covered) La Arena Gold oxide heap leach mine in Peru.  Protest leaders are at odds with the company’s recent dismissal of Mr. Mariano Yupanqui Rada, described as both mine manager and whom is also described as having very close ties with the local community.  While just a blockade for now, a union leader at the mine are on record to have said that the will union will go on an indefinite strike starting August 31 if this specific issues is not resolved.  La Arena currently represents 10% of Scotia Mining Sales’ THO NAV.
Trickling out? Trickling out??? And a hastily searched-for link to a local reporter? Seriously guys, you're THAT petty? If paste out in full your proprietary analysis, don't send a cease & desist. Dumbasses.

3) Sandstorm (SAND) gets its chunk of Mason Resources (MNR.to) for 13c in the spin-out in May 2017, books it M2M for 16c in its 2q17 filings dated June 30th, sells it to HudBay (HBM) for 26c in August.  Makes C$1.4m profit, puts C$2.8m into treasury. Good deal, that'll help pay for Nolan's buyback program.




Bob Moriarty is wrong about many things...

...but he is 100% right about David Lenigas. Right here. Fave excerpt:

"David Lenigas sees himself as a big toad in the pond. And while it may be true that he’s a big fat toad, Australia is a little tiny pond"

PS: Moriarty has called NVO well, too. Kudos due.

You know it's a bull market for scamsters when...

...they ship in Billy Idol for their 59th birthday party. And pretend their mancrush is there for a "charity fundraiser".


At least Frank Giustra wasn't dancing with himself.

8/23/17

Mo' TAHO: The reasons why the La Arena mine is under blockade

 This link has the full story, including a video and photos of the (obviously very effective) blockade. Here's a translation of key excerpts.

Locals in the La Arena Zone Paralyse Mine due to Firing of Manager

Since yesterday, residents in the La Arena area have closed down operations at the mining company in the vicinity due to their opposition to the firing of the mine manager, the engineer Mariano Yupanqui Rada.

The protesters are located at the gates of the La Arena mine with banners, in order that management reverse the decision to make the aforementioned manager redundant. They stated that they were happy with the work of Yupanqui because he had always complied with the agreements made between the company and the community, as well as gaining the respect and affection of locals due to the caring way in which he went about his work, no matter how rich or poor the people concerned.

The president of the local community 'Ronda' group, Eleuterio Baltazar Rodriguez, said that it was unfair because thanks to the work of Señor Yupanqui the mining company had avoided conflicts with the local community. "He is a person who knows how to connect with the people, we are not going to allow him to leave the company because he's a professional from this region and we don't want people from other places to come in and do his job".

Also, the president of the La Arena Urban Expansion Association and also the general secretary of the union of workers at the mine, Ernesto García Armas, voiced his opposition to the decision taken unilaterally by upper management at Tahoe Peru. He said that since Rio Alto was sold to Tahoe Peru they had seen many labour abuses and unjust redundancies.

He said, "If the company ignores us, we will continue with this blockade and then as from August 31st the union workers at the mine will go on indefinite strike in order to defend our rights".


UPDATE: Good afternoon Ferrari Kev! Having a pleasant day?

By the way, it turns out that La Arena has been blockaded since Monday evening. Was it something I said?



Cardinal Resources (CDV.to) (CDV.ax) and its ridiculous, deceitful BS news release today

There should be a law! Oh wait, there are! Several in fact and a few of them come under the criminal fraud category. This morning Cardinal Resources (CDV.to) (CDV.ax), a bunch of bullshitters trying to separate the naive from their cash, published this NR about the latest results at it flagship Namdini project in Ghana. But instead to trying to represent their project with numbers that tell the truth, CDV, under the guidance of the weaselly Alec Rowlands, has gone the route that liars take.

Consider the headline of the NR "Cardinal Resources Drills 147 Metres of 3.1 g/t Gold at Namdini Project, Ghana". Sounds flashy and cool and when you scroll down a bit and see the same thing as one of the five drill holes reported, all looks confirmed. But then you see underneath between brackets "LWAG1" and then you get to the smallprint underneath which says this:
"1 Length Weighted Average Grade (LWAG): Calculations are based on 3m minimum width, 3m maximum contiguous waste and 0.5 g/t Au cut-off."

That is technical talk for "WE ARE LIARS, YOU ARE STUPID, WE ARE LAUGHING AT YOU" Because when you get to the real data, buried way down the NR where people fear to tread, you get to see the reality of the headline hole:



In short, what CDV decided to do with its holes reported today is totally ignore any part of the hole that doesn't have any grade and just tell you about the bits that have gold in it. Try ignoring the zero grade material when you start mining it!

And once you crunch the numbers on all the holes, the scale of this utter BS becomes apparent


  • Hole 92 is NOT 147m of 3.1 g/t gold, it is 434 metres of 1.0 g/t gold!
  • Hole 154 is NOT 87m of 1.1 g/t gold, it is 225 metres of 0.4 g/t gold!
  • Hole 79 is NOT 173m of 1.2 g/t gold, it is 391 metres of 0.5 g/t gold!
  • Hole 91 is NOT 162m of 1.5 g/t gold, it is 279 metres of 0.9 g/t gold!
  • Hole 79 (II) is NOT 97m of 3.1 g/t gold, it is 194 metres of 0.8g/t gold!

In so many words, the vast majority of this project is uneconomic waste. Exactly what CDV want to hide from the market. Bullshit liars, burn them with fire.
IKN thanks readers 'R' and 'A' for the heads up.

UPDATE: The Angry Geologist adds his dos centavitos. Fave line of his, "I like the fact that they didn't need to deceive anyone, but that they felt that they had to".

Breaking: Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) La Arena mine blockaded by locals

No way into the Tahoe Resources 'La Arena' mine this morning due to a blockade by angry locals. The mine's operations are halted.  More to follow on this breaking story. Watch this space.

8/22/17

Primero (P.to) and its trainwreck of a balance sheet

I did this whole thing on Primero in IKN431 on Sunday and that's not getting an airing here. But this was the visual aid in the note and just on its own...


...you get an idea of just how big a hole these people have dug for themselves. One thing about crass corporate errors is that they'll always end up showing on the balance sheet. Jeesh what a mess.

Keith Barron of Firestone (FV.v) threatens to sue IKN for defamation

If he turns out to be a real deal rather than a bloviating blowhard and acts on his threats, I'll show you the interesting and entertaining mail exchange we had this morning. However, there's no way I can counter-sue him for calling me an objectionable ass, because that's true.

The Inca One (IO.v) scam. Rich pickings

We chortled and guffawed at the exercise in pig-lipstickin' News Release run by the scam pump Inca One (IO.v) this morning. So skip last the "+109%" headline silliness and notice how throughput tonnage is at 60tpd. This compares to 57tpd in the previous quarter which the company assured was severely crimped by the prolonged spell of bad weather in coastal Peru in early 2017. Sicne then, three tonnes extra? When the same plant ran at 93tpd in December? And has a recently upgraded capacity of 100tpd? Hmmm....

So, what else? Oh yeah, the CFO has resigned. Splat. Replaced by the guy who ran corporate governance at Asanko (check that chart...oh how we laughed). Add the frippery that the brand new independent director who joined in January 2017 has also resigned (replaced by a cozy ex-HDI lackey).

And let us recall, this is the stock that brought in the man who killed Timmins Gold as Chair, Bruce Bragagnolo, in August 2016 then immediately paid Daniel Ameduri 450,000 to pump it from 25c to over 40c. Today 11c. Don't day IKN didn't warn you, because it did.


Chart of the day is...

...copper, weeklies:



PING! Copper prints a three handle for the first time since November 2014.

8/21/17

Firestone Ventures (FV.v): IKN explains

Want to know why Firestone (FV.v) has gone vertical? The IKN Weekly explained it to its subscribers two weekends ago in IKN430, dated August 13th:


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Firestone Resources (FV.v): A significant corporate development
Some people worship at the altar of Keith Barron, I think he’s a smart bizguy but the way he tilts the playing field massively in his favour when setting up a company leaves me feeling nauseous. He’s done it recently with that silly “El Dorado Search” company Aurania (ARU.v) in Ecuador (and hey, he found backers, who am I to judge?) and he’s now doing it again with the other company he controls tightly, Firestone (FV.v). This Friday NR (14) has all the details, here’s a couple of segments

As part of the Debt Settlement, the Company has agreed to issue to Bambazonke Holdings Ltd., (the "Lender"), a company controlled by Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman and director of Firestone, a total of 9,096,800 Shares, making the beneficial holding of Dr. Barron approximately 19.85% on a fully diluted basis of 50,872,791 Shares that are expected to be issued and outstanding following the Debt Settlement. Prior to the Debt Settlement, Dr. Barron owned directly or indirectly no Shares of Firestone. In July 2016, Dr. Barron was granted 1,000,000 five-year stock options to purchase 1,000,000 common shares at $0.05 per Share.
The Company proposes to complete a subsequent share for debt transaction whereby an additional $370,000 of indebtedness owed to the Lender and Dr. Barron will be settled through the issuance of Shares, also at the deemed price of $0.05 per Share (the "Proposed Debt Settlement"). It is expected that the issuance of Shares to the Lender and to Dr. Barron pursuant to the Proposed Debt Settlement will increase Dr. Barron's beneficial holdings in the Company to over 20% of the then issued and outstanding Shares on a fully diluted basis, thus making him a new Control Person, as defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange. Accordingly, the issuance of shares for debt that results in the creation of a Control Person requires the approval by the "disinterested vote" of the shareholders which the Company will seek at the upcoming meeting of shareholders. The Proposed Debt Settlement is also subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange.

It’s classic TSXV bullshit: The head man gets a salary, the tinyco has no money and can’t pay it, the debt is accrued month by month on the liabilities, the head man takes it in a debt-for-shares deal (when anyone truly caring for shareholders would have waived their salary years ago), then the company does a rollback, suddenly gets a new project, a new launch and a pump from The Usual Suspects. It turns my stomach frankly and people like Barron are not the solution, they’re the problem. But the set-up is obvious so if you’re looking for a pennycrapper dice roll for 2018, FV.v may interest you.


Disclosure: No position in FV.v and not planning to take one either. IKN is part of the solution, not part of the problem.

Panoro Minerals (PML.v) up 30% today: Your multiple choice quiz question

Answer at the bottom of the page.

1) Ignorance is bliss
2) You gringos truly will buy anything
3) Ignore the litany of fatal flaws, this is the TSXV after all.
4) Since when has uneconomic grade been important?
5) All of the above.











Answer: 5.





Think zinc (part X + 1), from IKN431

About a page and a half of yesterday's IKN Weekly IKN431 was dedicated to an update on the zinc market. Here's that piece, the only change being the last section in which we discuss the state of play in the three stocks chosen to ride the Zn upwave, plus the new one I'm thinking of buying soon(ish).



xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



Think zinc (part X+1)
There have been several pieces in ‘Market Watching’ this year with ‘think zinc’ in the title this year, so it’s pleasant to report that the macro thoughts behind the trade idea are panning out pretty much the way imagined. The basic idea has been one that we first identified back in early/mid-2016, but its sense of urgency is now increasing. It’s all about dwindling supply in the face of demand growth, the way that will push prices higher and the tell on all this would be a sharp drop in world inventory levels at the major metals exchanges. That’s worked out just right and I believe we’re now approaching the tipping point.

To recap slightly, in IKN419 (one of the better examples of ‘think zinc’) dated May 28th 2017 we highlighted how overall world zinc stocks had dropped to 524kt, down 30% in 2017 to that date. Here’s a chunk of script from IKN419 by way of reminder:

“…the real news is the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) date. LME zinc inventories have been dropping for quite a while and went under (what is understood to be) the key 400k tonnes level at the beginning of the year. But the new news is the sudden acceleration of SHFE inventory destocking. Last week alone SHFE stocks dropped 14.7% to 78,300mt and according to Metal Bulletin last week, premiums for zinc delivery in China are at three year highs. Overall world Zn inventories are now 524k, down 30% in 2017 alone and put this weekend’s inventories at 11.75 days of consumption (i.e. there’s less than 12 days’ world zinc supply in the storage rooms of this world). That was 19 days at the start of 2017 and it’s closing in rapidly on what most Zn market-watchers consider the pinch point of 10 days. The way in which stocks have dropped like a stone in May means the crunch moment may now come more quickly than most people (including myself) were expecting. Up to now I’d mentally pencilled in Q3 or Q4 of 2017 for the time the Zn hype machine starts, instead it may come as soon as June.”

Cut to today and though the crunch moment didn’t arrive so quickly, the trend has continued and we’re now at 447kt, 41.1% down YTD. That puts stocks at 11.4 days of world consumption and that suggests there’s more upside to come from Zn, we haven’t reached the mania phase yet because as noted in IKN419 the classic trigger point for (something akin to) panic buying is when days of consumption drops under 10. When (not if) that line in the sand is crossed it might not faze real users so much but I’ll bet dollars to donuts the mining sector hype machine will crank it up and draw newcomers/latecomers in.

With that in mind and to ring the changes slightly (perhaps matching with the longer-term thoughts on gold in this week’s intro) I thought I’d look up a very-long-term chart of the metal today. After a quick Google rummage this elegant one at (20), Trading Economics (interactive too, I will return there) turned up that takes us all the way back to 1960:




Though the 60s were another country for base metals trading and flat, as from the mid-70s and for disparate reasons, one thing we can note about zinc is the way it will rally on a spike. The most notable and famous being the mid-2000s run that took it to U$2/lb briefly, but even the 1989 run made for a bottom-to-top run of +150%, anyone buying low and selling high then would have done just fine.

Will we reach $2/lb this time? I doubt it, the period before the financial crisis was weird in many ways and bubblemania spreading out from the house price boom was infecting many secondary markets. On the other hand, after last week’s breakout over U$1.40/lb (U$3,100+/tonne now) I see no reason why the rally should grind to a halt. And as mentioned above, the trade media hasn’t even clicked into “Supply Crunch!!!” hype mode yet.

Personally I’ve been playing the run with three trades up to this week but with....

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx





And the rest is for subbers.

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar, monthlies:


People who drone on and on and on about the imminent demise of the USD should read a freakin' history book or two. And STFU. There's life in the old dog yet.

8/20/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN431 has just been sent to subscribers. Regulating Regulus.

Jerry Lewis

Anyone who hasn't seen Scorsese's 'The King of Comedy' should do so. One of his most under-rated movies, Lewis was a magnificent foil for De Niro and showcased his talent to a whole new generation.