start here

start here

The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)

10/14/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Fernando de Szyszlo", on his passing this week aged 92. Also, during the week I've featured a few of his works in separate posts here, here and here. I'll do a few more next week.

Second Place: "The reason why Tinka Resources (TK.v) isn't up further". A short rant-ette that hit a few nerves.
 
First Place: "Re-re-reiterating on Novo Resources (NVO.v) (from IKN438)". Yeah, fashion stock wins the race, lah lah lah. I won't be on this subject any longer, my piece is said and I'm not here to chase hits. Neither do I run this blog to reap another harvest of dumbass mails from idiots, the type who actively deserve to be separated from their net worth. Go spout your inanities at CEO.ca, Tommy loves you and always will.

10/13/17

The BCSC needs to close down Asanko

They've just tipped off a bunch of sell side analysts that their resource model overstates resources at a breakfast meeting. Yet again selective disclosure of material information to friends first.

The Friday OT: Equador; For Always (live)

My brand new earworm group and when I went over to their Youtube channel, this is the first track they offer up. A beautiful thing to put in your ears, they've only had a debut album out so far (this is the last track on it) so such a great start, but above and beyond all my stars this lady can sing! She sends shivers straight down the spine. Thanks again for the intro, MB.




Youtube here, Still no spelling mistakes in the title line.

The reason why Tinka Resources (TK.v) isn't up further

I get regular mails on the whole "why isn't Tinka Resources (TK.v) moving up, what with the property looking very good and zinc at $1.50/lb and..." etc etc thing. The reason is simple, TK refuses to drop its underpants and give the Vancouver money masters the financing at this level (with the half warrant) that they're insisting upon. TK thinks that the warrants exercise in November plus the resource update and then the PEA in early 2018 will make them suddenly irresistible to the world, while the people who really run the sector are just laughing their asses off and know that they can suppress this share price from here to eternity until the company plays ball and gives them their juicy slice. You seriously think they care if TK finishes this cycle with $10m at bank and a PEA organically when everyone knows the PFS drilling and study in 2018 will cost them three times treasury? 

When TK runs its placement, the brakes will be lifted. Simple as that.


PS: The only difference between this blog and the sector voices is that this blog has the balls to publish the things other people just furtively whisper to each other.

Fernando de Szyszlo 3



A good quarter from B2Gold

Right here. Libertad sucked, Limon improved, Masbate was in line, but the win was how Otjikoto kicked ass. Then Fekola added bonus ounces.

With gold running over $1300 pre-open, if BTO can't rally on the back of these numbers there's no hope left for it.

UPDATE an hour after the open: Seriously, what's a guy gotta do round here?



Uff...

10/12/17

A Flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, Thursday evening post-bell. A trade.

My favourite bits of the Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) 2016 Sustainability Report...

...which came out yesterday and can be found on this link right here. First this guffaw-inducing segment from the intro, signed off by Ferrari Kev and his sidekick Clayton:


Then, just under their signatures, this chunk of hilarious:




Further in the document and to underscore the accidental comedy, this:


You cannot make this stuff up. The single worst Canadian mining company offender in LatAm that's so bad it's even managed to get an operating mine closed down painting itself as a paragon of CSR wonderfulness. And by the way, in this document TAHO has finally, FINALLY spoken up about the accident at Escobal which killed one of its workers.

The Clive does BNN

B2Gold's alpha male in chief with Andrew Bell, right here.

The second half of the interview is the best.

Panoro (PML.v) at 40c

That puts its market cap at over C$100m.



You gringos will buy anything.

Fernando de Szyszlo 2



After reading Caretas in Peru today, IKN can confirm...

...that Jaime Pinto is shitting his pants. Good.

I see Rye Patch Gold (RPM.v) moved up strongly yesterday...

...on the pre-announced new of a weak Q3 of production. This can only be explained by the undoubted fact that there are thousands of people who trade mining stocks who don't have the first clue about company financials. Or as The IKN Weekly put it in IKN435 dated September 17th.....

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



"...as at end 2q17 RPM was working cap negative, its debt now a clear and present issue. In its 2q17 MD&A, RPM tries to play down this working cap deficit by saying this:

However, the deficit includes $7,126,070 contingent consideration relating to the purchase of the Florida Canyon Mine and includes provisions to satisfy this amount by way of equity or equity instruments. The Company considers that it has sufficient cash resources to complete the ramp-up phase and enter into production.

Now that’s true, but personally I don’t care so much about that $7.126m line item. The thing that should worry RPM longs is the Macquarie debt and to illustrate that, here’s the 2q17 balance sheet ripped from the financials with some red ink scribbled on it:





The problem is the bottom bit. RPM has drawn fully on the $25m revolver facility, its interest rate is an eye-watering 16% to 36% (depending on the tranche) and in just six months, it’s expanded by over $13m. What’s more, $19.2m is due in the next 12 months.

Also, please note that “says who?” comment about the value of its property/plant/equipment line item, which is basically its Florida Canyon mine. We only have the company’s opinion on its fair value at this point (and that’s expanded generously since the end of 2016, too). If we take the numbers as gospel, RPM has a book value (all assets minus all liabilities) of 18.5c per share, which means it’s still trading snugly over book. That might be fine for an operating and profit-making company of a hot exploreco with an exciting asset that’s now being developed, but when it’s a company that continues to fail to deliver on production and has a whole bunch of debt on its books….well, that looks expensive even if every penny of that $107.8m valuation is justified. Add in the expansion of the share count, now 427.16m and with that $7.126m contingent liability looking likely to turn into equity and dilute things even further and you have a balance sheet wouldn’t be particularly pretty even if 3q17 turned out to be good. I was considering the stock as a purchase by assuming RPM would finally deliver on its promises in 3q17 and give us positive free cash flow from its mine. It’s obvious now that it won’t and the debt clock’s ticking is now very loud. “Not particularly pretty” has now become plug ugly and I don’t see how RPM pays down that debt in time, now we know that commercial production won’t happen until 2018.

The bottom line to this is line: It’s the balance sheet, stupid. They matter, you cannot hide them behind promises of a happy shiny future, RPM is now in serious financial straits and when that happens it’s the equity that suffers. The only people who could recommend this stock are people that don’t open company financials (or if they do, don’t know what they’re looking at). Avoid this stock.




10/11/17

Fernando de Szyszlo 1



Novo Resources (NVO.v): The drill hole at Pilbara

EDIT: Seriously, are you people this freakin' dumb? What does "I am neutral NVO", repeated time after time, mean to you? Do you have a problem with 5th grade English language comprehension? Stick your dumbass mails where the sun doesn't shine. My stars, the mining sector attracts some seriously stupid individuals.


After posting what I posted on Novo Resources (NVO.v) yesterday, I received a very interesting mail from A. Reader who told me that my post was nearly correct, because there has in fact been a hole drilled in that neck of the woods. It was sunk in 1987 by CRA Exploration and it was a deep one, too. Here follows the pages of the report published by CRA on that hole and I think anyone interested in the story should have a good read of it. Half a metre thickness? Hmmmm...

I remain neutral NVO.v.

















Paging Allan Barry Laboucan

How's your massive viral campaign to get IKN blocked, suspended and removed from the world due to the "racist stuff and lies" going, Allan?

Oh hey Allan, is that your company Alset (ION.v) at new 52 week lows of 7.5c? And as you're about to run out of cash again, when's the next Pacific Ocean dilutive financing happening, Allan? Isn't it about time you did some real work instead of flapping your unqualified gums on CEO.ca or playing endless rounds of golf, Allan?

Checking in on East Asia Minerals (EAS.v)

Here's the chart of East Asia Minerals (EAS.v) from the time IKN ran this post exposing the return of the previous scam running chief Mike Hawkins until today:



What, 45% down in a month? Is that all?

Another pump job run from the scam centre that is Tommy Humphreys' CEO.ca bites the dust. No wonder RocketRed/ (aka Mister Renneberg) was so keen on telling bullshit lies about your humble scribe, he was the one at the very centre of this pump and dump. 

"For health reasons". I'm still laughing about that one.

Get on the Alpha Mining mailing list

Good news! Rob Alpha over at Alpha Mining has now set up free the daily mailer option on his blog, so you can get his posts piped to your inbox every day instead of going over to his page. In very much the same way as the IKN blog daily mailer (loved by thousands of you) all you have to do is...

1) Go over to Alpha Mining

2) Click right here...



3) ...put in your e-mail address and the non-spam code, then hit the button.

4) Then a confirmation mail turns up in your inbox (check your spam if it doesn't). You open that, click the link inside and hey presto you're up and running. All free, gratis and for nothing.

So do it and get a decent mining brain on your side.

Lithium X (LIX.v) runs a bought deal

Oh what a coincidence that the LIX bought deal closes on the very day its annuals are due!

Tahoe Resources (TAHO): Bullets in Copters

The photo from the report


The last time we heard from the liars and idiots running Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) on the snafu at San Rafael las Flores (aka the Escobal mine in Guatemala) was September 26th when the company said, "The Company is making progress with engaging stakeholders at the Casillas roadblock."

Cue owly:

Here's the cruel reality, in this report out of Guatemala today. Your humble scribe translates:

A helicopter headed toward Minera San Rafael was attacked by firearms and hit by one bullet that put a hole into its tail, close to the rear rotor.

According to the mining company, the helicopter was carrying supplies needed for the maintenance of its environmental mitigation commitments and had to make an emergency landing inside the company's installations.

Also, the mining company said that the mine had not as yet re-started its operations, but the Environmental Ministry has ordered the company to continue with its environmental mitigation measures and due to this, the transport of fuel for electricity generation was necessary.

"These actions do not only put at risk human lives, but also the environmental commitment that we have agreed upon with the government of Guatemala as we are not able to transport supplies that are needed for the mitigation processes", said Andrés Dávila, director of corporate communication. The mining company said that even though it had shown good faith in continuing its compliance with its environmental commitments, the blockade at km80 of the roadway that runs to San Rafael Las Flores continues, which stops supplies from arriving via the road link.

Great community relations you got there, Ferrari Kev. Really making progress.

10/10/17

Re-re-reiterating on Novo Resources (NVO.v) (from IKN438)

This is somebody else's show, not mine. This published to subscribers on Sunday. By the way, interesting that NVO has removed that original video from youtube.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



Re-re-reiterating on Novo Resources (NVO.v)
Due to the continued hype and noise being generated by Novo Resources (NVO.v) and all who sail in her (or have hitched wagons on her back) and to a new raft of mails, inquiries and general prodding of your author, though slightly annoying to do here is another short note on NVO.v and the position of The IKN Weekly.

Here’s a segment of what I wrote on NVO.v in IKN426, the weekend after the whole circus started (that Youtube video (22), remember?):

“NVO is already a $150m Market cap company and that’s expensive for a junior, exciting discovery or not. I’m not saying there’s not speculative potential in the stock, I am saying it’s hardly a riskless trade by any means.”

Here’s a bit of IKN430, mid-August:

“For what it’s worth I stand by every word in my IKN426 note and it matters not one jot that the share price happens to be +200% since then. It was expensive then, it’s expensive now and I may end up telling people that it’s expensive at $10 when it rockets through that level too.”

And here’s what I wrote in IKN433 on September 3rd, the last time the stock got a mention:

“…I’d like to take the opportunity to state again and for the record that I am on the sidelines about NVO, strictly neutral, no dog in this race.”

Are we clear now? Now you may call me a fool for not getting involved with “The greatest discovery story of the last…(etc)”, call me a yellow-bellied chikkinshit coward, call me weak and jealous of missing out, call me what you want, I don’t care and what’s more I’ve been called much worse by uglier people than you. On the flipside I could start pointing at the gold fever hype, the one-way traffic of bullish opinion, the way any dissenting voice to that of the now near-Godlike Quinton Hennigh is deserving of The Spanish Inquisition, the way in which the whole geological narrative is being driven by newsletter writers who not only are not geologists but, more dangerously, think they are. I will name names on that specific matter, those names are Kaiser, Moriarty and Taylor and if you want just one example of the potential problem, look at how John Kaiser promoted Arizona Silver earlier this very year (and for my money he’s the most respected of the three). This isn’t me being catty and taking a side-swipe at people in the same sphere, it’s me knowing about one of the biggest pitfalls of this thing I do on a weekly basis and try hard to avoid (and even then come up short). For geology, either 1) be a geologist or 2) understand clearly what a geologist is saying to you when she or he opens their mouth before writing things down and publishing them. To its credit, NVO has stated on several occasions that they do not know what Pilbara etc is yet but that hasn’t stopped the shouting when it should at least have given some pause. Two words: Gold Fever.

Yes, I have been watching the hype and hoo-hah going on (it’s impossible not to if you’re an observer of the junior sector) but my position hasn’t changed a jot. I still do not understand the stock and its deposit, the only way any of us will know is once the thing has been drilled, we haven’t even had a single hole let alone the series that will be necessary, its valuation is sky high and the risk/reward leverage has climbed exponentially as a result. And once again, you the investor/trader/whatever do not need my opinion; for one nobody knows yet, for another a thousand other people are lining up to give you their opinion so one more voice is neither here nor there. I am neutral NVO, period. Any more inquiries to this desk regarding this stock will be answered with, “See IKN438”. Thank you for your attention.


Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) at Lindero: What a difference a year makes

That was then and this is now:


It took a year and a bit to show that the parameters under which FVI bought this dog of a project were just another bunch of BS lies. And the thing is, the complete BS that FVI bought into wasn't a PEA or a pre-feas, it was supposed to be a feasibility study! It's even had the Argentine Peso devalue heavily since mid-2016, lawd help this project if local costs hadn't got that much cheaper in dollar terms.

And of course, there's the dirty little secret about Lindero; FVI will tell you they're commissioning in 2q18, but the cyctle times at this heapleach are so slow that you're not going to get a year of full production until well into 2020. And they sold this to its shareholders as "first year of ops 2018...gotta laugh.

And of course, it's in Argentina, where angels fear to tread and fools rush in. In other news, nice to see Ganoza finally buy a few shares of his own company (under duress from shareholders), which takes his skin in the game from almost fark-all to not quite fark all.

UPDATED Peru prepares for the big match tonight



Peru vs Colombia in Lima. Peru wins and they quality for Russia at the expense of Colombia. Colombia wins and they qualify at the expense of Peru. A draw and anything can happen, depending on the results of the other matches.

A nation awaits. With beer.

UPDATE: In a wild and nerve-wracking night of Association Football in South America, the dice were cast, Peru went one down and equalized to draw 1-1 but it was enough for both teams. The four automatic qualifiers are Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina (Messi hat-trick) and Colombia (that point was enough), Peru scraped into the 5th place playoff spot on goal difference, while Chile finished 6th and are out of the Finals. So are Paraguay.  

Peru now plays New Zealand in a play-off for the last spot in Russia, first leg in Wellington on November 6th, second leg in Lima November 14th.

PS: Check out Messi's 3rd goal on this Youtube, minute 2:53 onward. The more you watch it the more you see that it's sheer footballing genius.

WHY so serious




Plenty of feedback from the West High Yield (WHY.v) story featured last week (and done better by Alpha Mining) and yes it is an obvious scam. Are you that stupid to believe otherwise? Anyway, mailbag came and the best was from reader SS, who brings up a previous theme but really, he's dead right and this woeful WHY.v thing brings it into sharp focus. Take it away, SS:

Hi Otto –
Just learning about this West High Yield scam now. I saw a number of headlines about it, but didn't pay much attention to it until this morning. It’s an obvious scam.  But one that issuers could have been fooled by (not saying WHY is innocent -but it’s possible and if so incredibly stupid).  But, how on earth can the exchange and the securities regulators allow this to go through?!!!
 
The amount of nitpicking these bureaucrats undertake while doing the most basic and innocuous of transactions is overwhelming and cumbersome, yet they let something so blatant trade for days after?  Given the obvious peculiarities, this thing should’ve be halted 30 seconds after that news until further investigated.
It's shameful. The governing bodies need to be called out – aggressively, and held to account.  Last thing the industry needs are bullshit artists like these stealing money from dupes.
 
 

The Jekyll & Hyde metal

You may have picked up on the fact that I'm no big fan of silver, but a trade is a trade and...


...that's looking pretty bullish to me in the short term, at least. And the move this morning is 2X that of gold.

Fernando de Szyszlo

Another light goes out.

10/9/17

There will be no more posts on this blog until Tuesday morning

For secret reasons.

10/8/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN438 has just been sent to subscribers. Lots of LatAm legalities, crushing copper comments and super sandy sales. Plain sailing.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:


Third Place: "Correcting on Golden Queen (GQM.to)". This makes me happy, when one screws up one should admit the mistake, get the correction out and make sure it's seen. All good.

Second Place: "From IKN437: "Leagold (LMC.to): WWWB? (What Will Woodyer Buy?)"". Which also makes me happy, this was the best thing on the blog last week.
 
First Place: "The perfect Christmas gift for mining investors". Yeah, come to think of it this was the best thing on the blog last week. It was also the very first of the week and went out on Sunday, which makes it a rarity (weekend traffic is light). My thanks again for reader C and to reply to a few mails, sorry I don't know where to buy one. I want one, too. In fact I'd buy a dozen and give them as Christmas presents.