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11/11/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)". Oh look, a post about a Canadian junior moving into cryptocurrencies is popular.

Second Place: "More on the upcoming scam called Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)". Oh look, a post about a Canadian junior moving into cryptocurrencies is popular.
 
First Place: "HIVE.v: Word on the street is...". Oh look, a post about a Canadian junior moving into cryptocurrencies is popular. 

So therefore...STOP! Let it be known that IKN doesn't suffer from FOMO and isn't about to get mission creep on crypto things. For sure I'll post on things when the seedier stories about the scams and rip-off merchants moving into crypto show up, but IKN isn't about to change direction just because a topic away from (real) mining is faddy and in fashion. So don't rely on this humble corner of cyberspace for your coin information from now on, thank you for your attention.

11/10/17

The Friday OT: U2; Running to stand still

The story of my week.



Great track, though. From the time the band was both relevant and damned good (you gotta be old to remember that far back). These days just a bunch of tax-dodgers and stadium players for middle-aged gits like me with nothing better to do with their cash. Youtube here.

Graña y Montero (GRAM) is dumping hard today...

...because of the Marcelo Odebrecht witness testimony. Frankly I think there's another buying opportunity here, it's mostly a question of not trying to catch a falling knife and letting the sellers sell out totally.

Good to see Rick Rule hasn't lost it

On BNN last night he reco'd EMX Royalty (EMX) as a Top Pick and it's popped nicely this morning.

Thereby bringing a bit of relief to his bagholder clients. Happy days.

Auryn Resources (AUG.v): A cash thing

EDIT: I got Goldcorpse mixed up with Kinross. Brainfart, the rest stands.

The 3q17 financials out of Auryn Resources (AUG.v) last night made for interesting reading, with the statement of cash flows really catching the eye of your humble scribe:


 
Back in January 2017, AUG raised a cool C$41.172m gross proceeds (C$38.911m net...gotta pay the middleman) at C$3.67 for the normal shares and C$5.01 for the flow thru shares (Kinross Goldcorp, hold that bag) and as that highlighted item shows, C$24.714m has been spent on exploration and evaluation already, so where has the money gone?

A bit of extra digging shows that in January AUG had the intention of spending C$15.5m on its flagship Committee Bay project in Canada, as well as C$7.5m at its Homestake project and then other stuff. Up to date they've kept the Homestake project under budget ($5.638m), but the C$22.53m dumped into Committee Bay is an eye-watering overspend. The company's cash pile is now down to C$15.357m and with C$9.3m of that already committed in Q4, the conclusion is obvious even before the drills start turning on the Peru gig.

Hey Kinross Goldcorpse! If you liked buying into this at $3.67, you're gonna love the chance to repeat at $2.00, right? Right?

West High Yield (WHY.v) to open for trading this morning

That's in about 17 minutes' time and the market is indicating 18c to 20c open right now. Which is 18c to 20c more than it's worth.

11/9/17

Asanko Gold (AKG): The managerial bullshit now smells so strong that...

...even sellside brokerage analysts cannot ignore the stench any longer. It wasn't even two months ago when the CEO of Asanko, Peter Breese, stood up in front of the audience at the Denver Gold Show and said this (exact quote):
“We published a very robust feasibility study to grow this company from circa 220,000 ounces a year to 450,000 ounces a year at the end of May, or, beginning of June.  And at the time of the publication of that Feasibility study we were under sustained short attack, so we’ve sat back and said to ourselves, and as Tara said we’re a topic of conversation amongst the investing public, we said to ourselves, what do we do about this? You know we, as a team have built perhaps 15 mines around the world over the last 30 to 40 years, and we said well there’s only one way to sort out the short attacks and that’s to show them that they’ve picked on the wrong people.  So we are looking very clearly at focusing on operational delivery.”
It's an interesting document, that Feasibility Study published by Asanko and quoted by its CEO, because it's quite clear that AKG's boss is now hoping that nobody has bothered to open it and read it. Sorry Peter, you're out of luck. In that FS AKG forecast the following production:

2017: 242,042 oz Au
2018: 267,943 oz Au

With me so far? Good, because the first thing we need to know is that AKG is lagging massively behind its own FS expectations. We won't know until the end of the year of course, but as the company produced a total of 153,497 oz gold in the first three quarters of 2017 it's a fair guess they're going to come in around 205,000 oz to 210,000 oz. In other words, a big miss compared to the FS that Breese quoted so merrily a few weeks ago and if they're lucky, AKG will squeeze into the bottom end of the 205koz to 225koz range they revised downwards after the 2q17 earnings.

Now we skip to the news today. They said nothing about this just two weeks ago on earnings and ConfCall day, suddenly on the back of an analyst and investor site visit to their operations AKG has released this document and everso everso sneakily, on page 13, they stick in another production downgrade:

2018 Mine Scheduling Dynamics

• Nkran

• Practically, the deposit is limited to 3Mtpa rates

• Always anticipated cyclical ore yields

• Geotechnical redesign of oxides slopes have added waste strip ~4Mt

• Currently 50% through the pushback investment Cut 2, this continues through 2018

• Oxide reserves - 1.3Mt reduction in available oxide ore tonnes planned from Akwasiso & Dynamite hill

• Granites - Restricted throughput rates due to high Bond Work Index

• Multiple Ore Sources

• Nkran

• Akwasiso established June, limited oxides, 50% granites, 1.5 g/t grade, but with some 2 g/t areas

• Dynamite Hill establishing currently, +2Mt ore with 500,000t oxides @ 1.5 g/t

• Stockpiles (3Mt @ 1.1 g/t)

Implications

• All ore sources required to meet the 5Mtpa feed requirement

• Stockpile feed required to offset oxides reductions

• Mill feed grade consistent with reserve grade ratios

• Bond work index – granites blended at limited rates into feed

• 2018 production expected to be similar to current 2017 range

There is so much to love in that bullet point mess it's difficult to know where to start, but let's go with the last bullet. Ottotrans time! "Oh, by the way...remember that 267k oz gold we said we'd produce in 2018....errr, it's 210k max now". Or how about gobbledygook such as "Geotechnical redesign of oxides slopes have added waste strip"? Stick that through the Ottotrans and you get "The short attackers are right, our pit walls are farked and strip rates are going even higher, so don't expect those ounces to do anything like make a profit now, yeah?" And yes sir yes madame, you are correct in pointing out to me that this is the company with a crapload of financial debt to pay back from....errr....its cash flow.

Which brings me to the sellside anal yst reference in the top sentence, because AKG may still be able to pull the wool over the eyes of your average sellside dumbass in a suit but the sharper ones have started to work it out. Step forward and take a bow Jeff Killeen of CIBC who wrote in his AKG update report today:
"Asanko has unexpectedly reduced 2018 production guidance through release of an updated site visit presentation. The deck suggests 2018 production will be similar to the 2017 range (205koz-225koz), which is materially below our estimate of ~246koz and well below the Q2/17 technical study that guided for ~267koz in 2018. Adjusting our model, we see a negative ~14% impact on production and an ~18% impact on our 2018E CFPS."
And ends the note with a flourish, too:
With potential for further negative reserve revisions on the horizon and operational performance issues to date, we continue to expect AKG shares to underperform.

Correct, Mr. Killeen. Way past time that the serial BSsers get called out by the Canadian brokerages so well done you. My only beef with your note is that you have a CAD$1.00 price target on the stock, as that's precisely one Loonie too high.



Most of the B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) 3q17 financials were in-line...

...with expectations, which isn't a shocker because the company pre-announced production for Q3 as well as sales and revenue so even the dumbasses in suits you know as sellside brokerage analysts could get close to the numbers before today's NR. But this...

"In October 2017, subsequent to the third quarter, the Fekola Mine produced 33,946 ounces of gold in the month (significantly surpassing budget of 15,100 ounces) and is now expected to achieve commercial production (four months ahead of original schedule) by the end of November."

...is another story. Expect BTO to rally today and don't say you weren't warned.

11/8/17

The last honest economic study

Let's take a trip back to 2013.

After the Argonaut Gold (AR.to) PEA for its Magino project this morning in which the company told us with a straight face that it has a 19.5% IRR (and just love that 5% discount on the NPV, guys), a NR that could only solicit our pal the parrot...



...a couple of pals and your humble scribe were chewing the cud on the woeful state of economic studies in general when one of them asked (and I quote), "Has there ever been a negative feasibility study?" The memory cells went BEEEP! at IKN Nerve Centre and after a couple of minutes of Google search we were all laughing hard at potentially the last ever fully honest Feas Study from any publicly traded junior mining company. Step forward and a round of applause for International Tower Hill (ITH.to) and its July 2013 FS on its Livengood project, a document so good it included this table in its NR:



Yes indeed, a negative IRR at U$1,400/oz gold, thanks you thanking you oh thank you ITH. But hey, you do get a +17.8% IRR, all you need is....a gold price $400/oz higher than it's ever traded. Details.

We should of course mention that just five months after this FS came out, the ITH CEO and three other members of the board of directors were fired. Today ITH is back in the fold and insists that Livengood is economic at current market prices. The old management were stupid enough to be honest, y'see.

More on the upcoming scam called Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)

Seriously, the Deslauriers brothers make Frank Giustra look like a piker. Mind you, the Bhartis pere et fils are in one this one from the ground level too, birds of a feather etc. Check out the way in which they've put together the capital structure at this thing the despicable Canaccord is now flogging to the world.


So once again in the very near futures, when you retail saps are buying these guys willbe selling. You get worthless paper, they get your dollars. And yes, you're right, Deslauriers + Canaccord is exactly the same combo as the other recent bandwagon scam, Cannabis Wheaton (CBW.v).



Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)

People, when I get no less than four mails in one morning on one company and the mails are along these lines...

"...Canaccord is leading a financing for Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC). This is the crypto-scam company set up by the DLE brothers, but like a supergroup they added Andy DiFrancesco to beef up the guitar solos and accelerate the movement of money from your wallet to theirs. HIVE looks like a blue chip compared to this thing."

...there may be a story brewing for IKN. Stay tuned and if you want to join in the mailfest, you know the address.

Tinka (TK.v) opens up 6.8% at 79c today...

...on the back of its resource update NR, here. Can't blame the buyers, TK has delivered a big up on its original resource.

UPDATE: Make that 87c

11/7/17

And the Deepgreen deal collapses

Remember this post? And this one of course (even better). Seems things didn't turn out quite the way Bri-Bri imagined.

Vancouver, British Columbia, November 2, 2017 – DV Resources Ltd. (“DV” or the “Company”) (TSXV – DLV.H) announces that, due to certain conditions precedent to its proposed business combination transaction with DeepGreen Resources Inc. (“DeepGreen”), which was originally announced by DV on May 30, 2017, remaining unfulfilled, and by mutual agreement, DeepGreen and DV have allowed the amalgamation agreement to lapse as of October 31, 2017.
DeepGreen has advised DV that it has determined to raise capital privately and postpone its going public process.
The Company further announces the resignation of Brian Paes-Braga as Director, and Melinda Coghill as CFO and Corporate Secretary. Jasvir Kaloti has been appointed CFO and Corporate Secretary of the Company.

Bobby Genovese news

IKN receives mailbag:

"So Bobby G’s team of lightweights Bruce Reid etc haven’t made their 31st October $1m payment to the Bunker Hill Mine owner, apparently extending the deadline with another interim payment, and trying to run a highly discounted private placement without mentioning that pretty material fact? Say it ain’t so…"

How's that SEC prosecution going, Bobby?




HIVE: You must read this link

It's not going to happen very often on IKN, but this humble corner of cyberspace strongly recommends that you read this piece by Lord Haw-Haw this morning:




Honestly, I've read it four times so far. Just the most incredibly, amazingly, stupendously stupid thing I've ever seen come out of the Vancouver cesspool. And of course we now know the "anonymous" Short Report at the weekend is fully in line with Fiore policy. The moment when the people who normally giggle behind Frank Giustra's back start laughing in his face has finally arrived.

UPDATE: Reader M notes that the article has 903 words and the disclaimer has 613. Wonderful.

The likely reason Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) down heavily today...

...isn't the zero news from Escobal, that's baked in. It's more likely this table from the financials:


La Arena was the only division that made money.

Expensive hobby, mining.

11/6/17

HIVE.v: Word on the street is...

...that the anonymous Short Report that hit the wires last night on the company was commissioned by Frank Giustra and authored by Tommy Humphreys.

In need of a liquidity event, gents?

UPDATE: We note Short Report author Lord Haw Haw informs us today regarding HIVE that, "Insiders and management of the company are currently prohibited from selling into the market." For the record, Frank Giustra is neither a registered insider nor management of HIVE. Just saying.

Argentina: Chubut's mining scene after Das Neves (from IKN442)

This is a short section from yesterday's edition of The IKN Weekly. The subject; whether the Chubut province of Argentina, home to Pan American Silver's (PAAS) Navidad project among others, is about to unfreeze its mining potential now that anti-mining governor Mario Das Neves has passed away.


Argentina: The death of Mario Das Neves

Though it’s somewhat crass to start by acknowledging the death of the Chubut Governor Mario Das Neves with a quick nod and a line of script, but then move straight into what it might mean for the mining industry in the Chubut province as well as wider Argentina, you will forgive me for the necessary evil.



Mario Das Neves was one of the loudest anti-mining voices in the country and nothing less than a scourge for the mining companies looking to set up business in the Chubut province, such as Pan American Silver (PAAS) at the world-class silver/lead/zinc Navidad project, Yamana (AUY) at the Esquel gold project in the Western Andean foothills of Chubut or any one of several juniors with uranium assets there. His death would therefore seem at first sight to be a positive check mark for the mining camp, but it’s unlikely to be as simple or easy as that because of who the new governor of Chubut is. The previous vice-Governor, one Mariano Arcioni, has already been sworn in and is currently in the process of deciding on his new cabinet of regional ministers. They will be officially decided in his first cabinet meeting tomorrow Monday and though we already know three of the ex-Das Neves cabinet have had their resignations accepted, we won’t know the full make up until then.



However, we do know that in previous declarations at least, Mariano Arcioni takes a very similar line to that of his now deceased boss on mining. For example, earlier this year when the National Minister for Energy and Mining, Juan José Aranguren, was pushing Chubut to permit and develop Navidad (Macri and Ross Beaty see ey to eye on most things) the then Vice-Governor Arcioni was quick to respond to media channels (21) with, “We are not going to let anyone force any project upon us (the Chubut people) that goes against our provincial sovereignty”. And once again in this simple statement, be it from the mouth of the governor or whoever, we see the power of the provincial politics to green or red light any plan or initiative promoted by the national government on a nationwide scale (mining or any other). Another statement on mining made by the new Governor of Chubut came mid-2016 (22) and was again centred on Macri’s desire to get Navidad going (we’ve already noted how much of the national project asset book Navidad represents, it’s too big to ignore for the country government). This time Arcioni said, “At this time open pit mining using cyanide is prohibited (in Chubut). The law is that and until certain safety measures regarding water and controls are guaranteed, it’s an issue that’s far in the future to debate. Despite the President’s desire, today in Chubut it’s a long way off”.



We need to watch carefully this week for any signs that the new governor might take a different line to the mining question now in power (was he simply toeing the Das Neves line before?) and that starts with the unveiling of his picks for Chubut regional ministers tomorrow Monday. However, if he takes the same line as before, we still shouldn’t hold our breath about Chubut joining the more pro-mining provinces of Argentina.


Chart of the day is...

...the Gold/Silver ratio, 12 months:



How's the "Silver to outperform gold in 2017" forecast working out for you, silverbugs?

Let's not worry too much about Keith Neumeyer and his "going back to 15-to-1" call, eh...

WHY to die

A couple of weeks ago in this post, we had a good old laugh chuckle yok and guffasabout the blithering idiots who couldn't see that West High Yield (WHY.v) and its magnesium stupidity was the most obvious scam story of the year.

Today the music stops, WHY about to die. Check out the neat and correct resume of the WHY.v NR over at Alpha Mining, then watch the fun over at the TSXV later as WHY.v does its Stuka dive bomber impersonation...without the pull-out move at the end.

11/5/17

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN442 has just been sent to subscribers. Thirty pages and 14,500 words. Plus plenty of number. And charts too. And footnotes of course. In other words, a pretty standard and classic old-school formation.

Sutherland Springs

On October 2nd this post went up, entitled "This Modern World". And here we are again, it took less than five weeks.

 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


This Modern World

It never gets old. Just replace the word "Tucson" for "Las Vegas". Or Miami. Or Aurora. Or Columbine. Or (etc):
 

And change the number of dead.