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12/9/17

Angry Geologist does Garibaldi (GGI.v) again

I've stated my position clearly enough, but this is a detailed and careful analysis of the latest drill hole that came out this week and worth your eyetime. Stop wasting your time at IKN and read something interesting instead on this link right here.

12/8/17

The Friday OT: Pulp; Common People

There's this advert on TV for Canada Dry this end of the world that uses the Pulp song 'Disco 2000' as the backing music, which gave me a dose of nostalgia and had me running to Youtube to check it out as a possible Friday OT. Which isn't going to happen because 'Common People' is a better track altogether. And the video might look clunky these days, but it was quite the zeitgeist thing at the time.



And "I took her to a supermarket" is still one of the best pop song lines ever.

Youtube here.

12/7/17

Totally OT: “I Made My Shed the Top-Rated Restaurant on TripAdvisor”

Busy person doing busy things today and this has nothing to do with anything normal to IKN but no matter, it simply must be shared.



Wonderful on so many levels, do your funnybone a big favour and read this. The woman sat next to me on the plane this morning started giving me funny looks and shuffling to the other side of her seat I was laughing so much. Deeply indebted to reader T for the heads-up.


Posting will be light for the next couple of day on this blog

For secret reasons.

12/6/17

Core Gold (CGLD.v): Avoid like the plague (from IKN446)

This in last Sunday's edition of the Weekly

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Core Gold (CGLD.v): Avoid like the plague
Like a bad penny, it turns up again. Once called Dynasty Metals and Mining (ex-DMM.to), the Ecuador gold producer is now named Core Gold (CGLD.v) and is under new management, headed up by one Keith Piggott (last seen turning Goldgroup Mining’s (GGA.to) share price from dollars to pennies after ruining the Caballo Blanco project in Veracruz). Last week we got two piece of news from CGLD, the first being very flashy trenching results on Thursday from its ‘Linderos’ exploration project (21) including 21m of 18.51 g/t gold. This was enough to pop the stock on Friday morning, but once the close came CGLD gave us its second piece of news (22), that it was taking out a U$15m debt facility as well as selling another 4.33m shares at 30c a shot. Talk about not hanging around! Talk about coincidental timing!

I was also impressed with what CGLD plans to do with the $15m loan it expects to close at the end of 1q18 (nearly four months? Rather weird). After earmarking U$4.5m to pay off its current due loan to Vertex (accruing at a 16% interest rate and half of it already two months past due date) plus another $0.5m for fees, it plans to spend $4m upgrading its production facility (even though the real plant bottleneck is the fact it can’t get its rock out the ground quick enough) and another $6m on “Corporate development initiatives and general working capital including exploration”, a happy catch-all for “whatever we like, stop asking questions”. So let’s see how an extra $15m in debt (at a 12% interest rate) would fit into its current balance sheet:




As at 3q17 CGLD was running a working cap deficit of $16.731m (even worse when you consider most of its current assets are run-of-company inventories). This has been boosted by a recent $3.5m placement (at 30c) so it does have a little more money now, but operations are still breakeven at best and are certain to stay that way, because the lion’s share of the money it owes is to its own workers and suppliers. That’s aside from the other liability line items which are mostly financial debts owed to several entities (Vertex first in line).

The proposed $15m debt deal is, therefore, a refi that simply adds more onto an already creaking balance sheet. Its liquidity and working cap problem isn’t suddenly going to go away (if the workers hear about a millionaire stash of cash they’ll want their repayment…or else) and anyone buying this stock today is betting on trenching results. From this company and track record.

With 106.8m shares out and a 34c share price before Friday’s raising announcement (which if fully taken would bring the count to 111.1m S/O), CGLD is currently valued at CAD$36.33m by the market which is approximately $36m more than its true value. Now that of course does not preclude the potential for this stock to move higher on some kind of promo push by the company and/or market voices, but the combination of the wealth destroyer known as Keith Piggott in charge and the money pit known as Elipe SA in Ecuador is more than enough for any serious investor. Run away from this deal and don’t ever look back, there are literally hundreds of better opportunities in this market no matter how good the veins under those trenches turn out to be. Or if you don’t believe me, try taking a hint from the ex-CEO of Core (when it was called Dynasty) Robert Washer, who has diligently sold 270,000 of his large share pile into the open market in the last six weeks. He has lots more too, so don’t let him sell them to you.



Tinka Resources (TK.v): Buzz Lightyear explains the latest NR



NR here.

12/5/17

And while Alset Minerals (ION.v) hits new 52 week lows...

...its CEO and head liar Allan Barry Laboucan still has nothing better to do with his time than flap his gums on CEO.ca 24/7/365. Or at least when not playing golf or "testing" the local tequilas.


Hey Barry you waste of space, how's that campaign to close down IKN going for you? It's been nearly three months, so still working on it? Or trying to sweep your blowhard buffoonery under the carpet again while cutting yourself those monthly paychecks for doing absolutely nothing?

Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) in trouble with Peru's Environment Ministry

Why they bought White Elephant we know by the name of Coricancha is beyond me.

UPDATE: What? A link to the news? Oh, okay.

No doubt about the main metals story today

Copper's dump under U$3/lb:


The wires are trying to blame a small rise in LME stocks, but that's BS because it's on the back of a big dumpage. It's more like the over-egging of the bull case, copper is higher but can't hold the top prices forever. Also, a few shorty moves shoving the metal under the 3-line makes for good headlines and China isn't stupid,they prefer to pay less for copper than more.

12/4/17

Junior mining and Tinder: Swipe right

To begin it must be stated that I do not and have never had the Tinder App or an account with Tinder, to the point where even though I know what it is and how it works I had to Google "Swipe Right" to check whether I'd got the term for acceptance correct. My personal life has no need for its services. I also hasten to add that to the best of my knowledge the person who sent this screenshot into IKN Nerve Centre, Reader M, is a single guy with no serious ties and every right to use this useful, popular and wholesome App in order to improve his social life.

So with context clear I'd like to say that there's something deeply satisfying about seeing a junior mining company advertising on Tinder.



Especially one with this type of price chart:




My new theory about B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG)

On considering the combination of...

1) The news out of BTO this morning.
2) The share price reaction to this news.

...I have formulated a new theory about this company, which goes like this:
"If B2Gold announces tomorrow morning that it has discovered the lost city of El Dorado, its shares will trade unchanged on the day on average volumes."
Thank you for your attention.

A last word on Garibaldi Resources (GGI.v), from IKN446

A short piece cobbled together for part of the latest edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN446:

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Garibaldi (GGI.v): A final comment
“A belief is like a guillotine, just as heavy, just as light.”
Franz Kafka

I was going to let the whole issue of Garibaldi Resources (GGI.v) and its self-proclaimed discovery at E&L Nickel Mountain drop after my quick word in this space last week, but it just so happens that since then I’ve done something I rarely do these days; I’ve paid attention to the chatrooms and bullboards of GGI and spent the week reading them closely (NB: no writing on them, I gave that up long ago). Due to that (this section is called ‘Market Watching’ after all) a few words here because even among the world of juniors this stock has gone off-scale in the number and nature of its True Believers.

Bullboards tend to be cruddy places at the best of times, either slagfests between people with opposite views (“you are only long/short this stock because your mother slept with the postman”) or circlejerks that provide all the bias confirmation you’ll ever need to stop you selling out of your mistakes. However, the evangelical tone and sheer weight of ignorance being propounded by those who would be your thought leaders regarding GGI is a whole different league. There is no debate and there’s no argument possible, nothing will change the unshakeable belief (of people who are obviously already bought in and have no arsenal left except words) and constant verbal onslaught that this is the next Voisey’s Bay or whatever else. There are many examples of the constructs and lines of attack being used but perhaps the best is the elevation of the consulting geologist to GGI to Godlike status, as the words of Dr. Peter Lightfoot are now revered as holy scripture and that any other geological opinion aside from his is to be immediately discarded. People, he’s a consulting geologist! I’ve met and talked with a dozen of them, of course they’ve forgotten more than I know about their specialist subject but for crying out loud they have a job to do, a paycheck to pick up!

The fervour and tone of True Believers about GGI, a company that uses classic marketing, photos of core to whip people into a frenzy before making them wait months for real assays (that then fall short on several counts (25)), run by people with a proven track record of hype-then-disappointment with a need to raise capital and with a carefully considered plan to use the Northern winter season as an excuse in order to play out the promotion as long as possible (plenty of time for placement buyers to sell) stacks up to red flag after red flag. Yes, of course the next drill hole may turn this speculation into something more solid (it’s not called The Truth Machine for nothing, after all) but even after considering the normal odds on world class discoveries, chances aren’t great. Add in the BELIEF stoking an outsized market cap and the risk/reward balance for anyone thinking of getting in now is nastily skewed. And believe me, Dr. Peter Lightfoot will continue to be a world-class nickel geol without a blemish on his name no matter how this story plays out, his reputational hit if GGI withers and dies will be plain straight zero. He’s a geologist, not a market mover-maker-shaker, he doesn’t give a fig about how much money you lose and neither do his peers.

And that’s it for GGI, except to say that while searching the Google machine for the exact wording of the Kafka quote I also came across something Carl Sagan once said on the same subject. It struck me as uncommonly wise (as was Sagan of course) so it gets to be the end of this little note.

“People are not stupid. They believe things for reasons. The last way for skeptics to get the attention of bright, curious, intelligent people is to belittle or condescend or to show arrogance toward their beliefs.”

Words from which I can learn something. It also reminded me of bullboards again; look if you must, but don’t touch.

There will be no more on GGI in The IKN Weekly.



Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 102

 

We're back with another happy installment of our occasional series, designed to try and cut through all that wordy word stuff that mining companies thrust upon us and get to the real message underneath the NR. Today's example comes from Orex Minerals (REX.v) and is entitled, "Orex Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire the San Luis del Cordero Silver-Copper-Zinc Project in Durango, Mexico".

This is what they wrote:

VANCOUVER , Dec. 4, 2017 /CNW/ - Orex Minerals Inc. -- (TSX-V: REX -- OTCQX: ORMNF) ("Orex"), is pleased to announce that they have signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Exploraciones del Altiplano SA de CV ("Altiplano") to acquire 100% of the San Luis del Cordero Project in Durango, Mexico . This project is a skarn and epithermal vein hosted silver-copper-zinc district, located 155 kilometres northeast of the City of Durango.
Orex's President, Gary Cope says, "Acquisition of the Cordero Project gives Orex a third quality asset, with upside exploration potential, in the prolific Silver Trend of north-central Mexico ."
Terms of the Agreement
This is a non-binding LOI and we are currently drafting a formal agreement. Terms of the proposed agreement will consist of the following annual phases and payment schedule, with all amounts in $US:
On signing the agreement = 100,000 shares and $100,000 .
On the first anniversary = 200,000 shares and $150,000 .
On the second anniversary = 300,000 shares and $200,000 .
On the third anniversary = 400,000 shares and $550,000 .
On the fourth anniversary = $1.5 million (of which 30% can be in shares).  Ownership of the property would then be transferred to Orex.
There will also be work commitments for the first two years of $400,000 in Year 1 and $600,000 in Year 2. There is no residual Net Smelter Return (NSR).
The Cordero project has undergone several phases of exploration, with multiple targets yet to be explored. Mineral concessions cover 2,825 hectares and include the full extent of the known mineralization. Old mine workings and mineralized showings wrap around a quartz-feldspar-porphyry intrusive. Diamond drilling of 62 holes from the period 2000 to 2016 total approximately 16,400 metres.
Altiplano possesses a Technical Report on a Resource Estimate for the project, compliant with NI43-101 and dated 2014, containing an Indicated Resource of 662,600 tonnes grading Ag 121 g/t, Cu 0.78 % and Zn 1.06 %, for a silver-equivalent of 240 g/t and 5.1 million ounces silver. In addition, there is an Inferred Resource of 2,785,300 tonnes grading Ag 144.4 g/t, Cu 0.75 % and Zn 1.45 %, for a silver-equivalent of 273 g/t and 24.4 million ounces silver.
For the purposes of silver-equivalent in the 2014 report, metal prices of Ag= $19 /oz, Cu= $3.00 /lb and Zn= $0.90 /lb were applied. The technical report was written by T.W. Hodson, P.Geo., an independent Qualified Person, and has an effective date of 1 October 2014 .
Ben Whiting , P.Geo., Vice President – Exploration for Orex Minerals Inc., is a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101 and takes responsibility for the technical disclosure contained within this news release.
ABOUT OREX MINERALS INC.


And this is what it means:

"We would like to take this opportunity to confirm to the market that Sandra Escobar is a POS."

B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): This is good

Here's the NR, here's how it starts:

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 4, 2017) - B2Gold Corp. (TSX: BTO) (NYSE AMERICAN: BTG) (NSX: B2G) ("B2Gold" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Fekola Mine in Mali achieved commercial production on November 30, 2017, one month ahead of the revised schedule and four months ahead of the schedule announced in the Optimized Feasibility Study ("OFS"). Ramp up to full-scale production at Fekola remains ahead of schedule with gold production well above budget in each of the ramp-up months, beating original recovery, grade and plant availability estimates in the OFS design. To November 30, 2017, the Fekola Mine has produced approximately 80,000 ounces of gold1, approximately 158% above budget (31,000 ounces). Gold production from the Fekola Mine in 2017 is now forecast to be between 100,000 and 110,000 ounces, far surpassing the upper end of the original guidance of 45,000 to 55,000 ounces. Based on current assumptions and updates to B2Gold's current year guidance and long-term mine plans, the Company is now projecting consolidated gold production in 2017 of between 580,000 and 625,000 ounces.


Graña y Montero (GRAM): Three ex-directors have just been thrown in jail

The Odebrecht corruption scandal claims its latest victims, as three ex-directors of Peruvian construction company Graña y Montero (GRAM) have been jailed in pre-trail custody (due to flight risk, along with one other director of a separate Peru construction company. A fifth accused from a different company has been charged but given house arrest for health reasons. They are charged with directly aiding and abetting Odebrecht in the U$20m bribe handed over to the then ex-President, Alejandro Toledo.

Hilarity ensues.

Lydian International (LYD.to) news

It's been a long time since this name popped up on the IKN radar, in fact you have to go back to 2015 and this post which commented on the financing deal LYD ran and the way in which, by doing so, totally it hosed its shareholders.

It would seems that IKN's opinion is shared by others. What follows is a mail intercepted by IKN last night from a source which must remain anonymous. Its author is Tim Coughlin, one of the founders of LYD and along with Peter Mullens the driving force behind the original discovery. Coughlin addresses his mail to Douglas Tobler, the current COO of LYD and from what the mail tells us, apparently LYD had floated an idea to name one of the conveyors at the Amulsar mine after Coughlin in recognition of his work. Let's see what Coughlin's opinion of that idea is and please note, one specific section has been redacted to remove names of people.

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Dear Doug,

Hayk advises that there is a proposal to name the conveyor after me (?)

Thanks, but no thanks.

I still live in a world where founders and founding shareholders are held in the highest possible regard. You, in-fact, owe your job and your outrageous salary and annual free shares to those people (although being fair-minded they would never have approved such a corruption). Yet you and your "team" in a fit of selfish panic, at the very bottom of the market (to the day), managed to effectively give the company away and erode all that hard work and all that shareholder value from what should have been an exemplary project.

(A number of people mentioned in the mail) year-on-year invested the high-risk money to move the project through its difficult early years, despise your practices. We paid for every share, you denuded them of value with what must be close to the worlds worst mine financing arrangement ever and then, in an arrangement which should have faced much closer scrutiny from the regulator, you enlist the help of your new owners to award yourselves your RSU's; free shares, every year, in a scheme voted through by the two institutions you effectively sold the project to.

I am happy for Armenia and I know that country better than any of you, but I do not agree to having my name on any installation of the bastard you are building.

до свидания и трахаться




IKN back and we particularly like the flourish of Russian at the end. Do like your humble scribe and stick it through Google Translate.

12/3/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN446 has just been sent to subscribers, it includes a full write-up on Eros Resources Corp (ERC.v), the stock alluded to in this post on Thursday morning.