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Christopher Hitchens on Vladimir Putin

A nine minute segment of a speech and Q&A given by a Hitchens at the height of his powers, in Canada in 2005. The first six minutes give necessary background (including the Berlin Wall and Serbia), the last three minutes are impressively perceptive on the "KGB Weasel" Putin. Hitchens called it first and well.

The Friday OT: Smashing Pumpkins; Zero

Because zero:

Youtube here.

Fun Asanko (AKG) things

On checking out the 4q17 financials and MD&A out of Asanko Gold (AKG) today, I couldn't help but wonder how it managed to mine just 802kt of ore but mill 1087kt. The norm at the company, as you can see below, is that the company mines more than it mills.

The difference goes on the low grade stockpile and gets added to assets at the company. So you'd expect that stockpile to drop in value and sure enough...

...carried stockpile inventory dropped by U$4.5m during Q4. You can expect that stockpile number to drop further in the next two quarters too, what with AKG telling us how its' going to have to concentrate on cutting back the pit walls. That means the low 1.5g/t grade average will continue. As will the losses. 

There was also that weird thing about how AKG claimed mill throughput of 1087kt, 1.5 g/t and 94% recoveries. If you do the math on that they should have produced 49,282 oz but somehow managed to claim 51,550 produced ounces. That's 2,268oz magically created out of nothing. Clever trick, especially when there was another 2,047oz of gold magically created in the same way during first three quarters of last year.


IKN Welcomes Brent Gilchrist, president of JDS Resources

Hi Brent,

Thanks for signing up to the mailing list today March 15th, so good of you to take an interest in this humble corner of cyberspace. Now you're here, perhaps you could enlighten on just why your company managed to underestimate capex at VIT.v's Eagle project to the tune of around 47%? And all that stuff you guys are trying to do at Curraghinalt, too. Just drop me a line, it'd be great to hear from you. Anyway, thanks again for signing up and here's a link you may be interested in reading.

Kisses, Otto.

Mo' B2

It's not exactly setting the street on fire, but...

...if you sit B2Gold (BTG) next to the Gold and Silver Index (XAU) on the one minute intervals and the last two day to show how the earnings numbers were received last night, that's not bad. As noted to one mailer this morning, I've seen worse reporting days.

Peter Arendas snowflake alert (Victoria Gold Part Deux)

After this humble corner of cyberspace did some 'splainin' to Peter Arendas, self-appointed expert on mining numbers and stuff over at Sinking Alpha, somebody pointed out the post and he decided to act...and comment:

Peter Arendas, Contributor
Comments (963) |+ Follow |Send Message |
Author’s reply »
Yes, I made a mistake and only mechanically decreased the NPV by 5%. Although I reflected the impact of the royalty sale on the attributable gold production and AISC, I neglected the total impact of the royalty sale on the NPV. After I used the gold price of $1,300 and the new 5% NSR in Victoria's NPV model presented in their feasibility study, the resulting after-tax NPV(5%) should be around $370 million (I'm not familiar with the Canadian tax system enough to determine the exact impact of the royalty sale and the 2017 tax changes on Victoria's tax obligations which means that the actual number may differ slightly). I submitted a correction of the related numbers, it should be visible soon.I apologize for the mistake, however, I must say that I absolutely don't like the blog author's arrogant writing style. If someone makes a mistake, you can notice him also without personal attacks, in a more cultivated way.

Oh the poor dear, has no trouble about spouting BS, pumping stocks in public forums using false information and potentially leading thousands of naive sheep up the proverbial garden path, but doesn't like his thin skin being pierced. Well Peter, it's true I'm an arrogant piece of crap but it's also true that I'm not nasty and horrible to just anyone. I save that for people who deserve it, such as you because you may think you've fixed your BS anal ysis now but it still wildly overestimates the NPV of Victoria Gold (VIT.v). This is one reason I asked you whether you actually know what NPV stands for.

You are seriously telling us that the Eagle project will be built for CAD$370m? They've just raised CAD$505m, didn't you see that? Well in fact you did and somebody else pointed it out to you in the comments section, but lo and behold that fact didn't fit your prejudices so you were moronic enough to defend your position with "Well they might not spend all that cash on the capex"! Dude, have you ever met a mining company CEO in your life?

A few facts for you, Peter:

1) VIT raised C$505m to build Eagle because they need C$505m to build Eagle. Period.
2) That C$370m (U$288m) number you seem to be fond of is a work of fiction, made up by JDS and published in cahoots with VIT. It's fraudulent. One of these days JDS is going to get slapped with a lawsuit and go bankrupt after losing the case, because they do this shifty move all the time and you're simply a fool if you haven't noticed it yet
3) As they've already spent C$38.4m on Capex at Eagle in 2017, you're staring down the barrel of a C$543m capex project here. And even that may turn out to be generous, because I'm not including the $20m contingency bridge loan they've set up or their treasury position.
4) And here's how I framed that fact to subscribers of The IKN Weekly last Sunday evening in IKN460: "That’s an overrun of C$173m, or a whopping 46.75%. And as according to JDS every 5% extra spent on capex means C$27m less on the NPV, the subtraction is C$252.45m".
5) Got that, Peter? Y'see, the problem is that you cannot simply ignore a capex overrun. You can try of course, you can even publish about it (either due to dumbass ignorance or nefarious reasons, I'm going to assume the best of you and say you're the former) but don't start whining when your gross errors and miscalculations are brought in front of your eyes. 
6) So let me help you with the next correction you need to make to your utter work of fiction. You're claiming a U$370m NPV for VIT.v at U$1.3k/oz gold. You're going to need to subtract around U$197m from that now. And that means your NPV per share is down to 22c. And you're looking really stupid now.

Have a nice day, Peter.

B2Gold ( (BTG) reports its 2017 financials

Fair to say they're not desperate for cash:

First of a squillion charts I get to play with this weekend. Anyway, go check out the BTO filings yourself, on SEDAR this evening.


NR headline of the day

Only in Canada.

Peat Resources Limited Announces Shareholder Vote to Change Name to Cobalt Blockchain Inc. and Other Results from its Annual and Special Meeting

Two scams for the price of one. And no children were harmed in the production of this DRC cobalt, pretty promise. Buy now! Hurry!

A song for March 14th

Kate Bush's Pi

Enjoy some tasty baked goods today, people.

Parsing the First Quantum ( NR on the Panama Cobre strike

Here's the NR, below comments from your humble scribe:

TORONTO, March 14, 2018 /CNW/ - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. ("First Quantum" or the "Company", TSX Symbol "FM") today reported that the Cobre Panama project is currently experiencing industrial action which has reduced the level of work being performed on the project. 

This action was started by a small number of personnel and their outside union leadership on March 9, 2018. The dominant union, which represents the majority of workers, is not involved in the action. Currently, development activity is continuing in two of the four main construction areas.
The project's security team is working with the authorities to ensure the safety of its employees and assets.
Cobre Panama has received significant support from the government including visits from senior Ministers to assist in reaching a resolution. These efforts are continuing.
Further updates will be provided as warranted.
On Behalf of the Board of Directors of First Quantum Minerals Ltd.                     G. Clive NewallPresident

1) The industrial action began in January
2) After a brief interruption, management and workers sat down and on January 18th hammered out a deal
3) One stipulation of the deal was that nobody would be fired for their militancy in the lead-up to the January stoppage.
4) First Quantum promptly fired 34 people for being "union ringleaders".
5) The union represented by those 34 fired workers has 2,000 personnel on site. It's the second largest representative union on site, but refuses to deal with them directly. It says it will only deal with the largest union (with around 3,500 workers on site).
6) Therefore tells us that 2,000 of the 7,000 total workers is "a small amount".
7) There are now 3,500 workers on strike due to the heavy-handed management who couldn't resist breaking their own word. In other words, the strike has spread due to solidarity among the unions.
8) Well done, Clive Newall.


Stephen Hawking

A brief history.

Further thoughts on the Tinka Resources (TK.v) bought deal

Hi, I'm a loyal retail shareholder! Just one moment, let me adjust correctly...

Thank you for the way you look after me.

Трамп пожаров Тиллерсон

Serves Rex right for preferring the Brits over Russia, silly man.

Tinka: A bought deal at 48c

With a half warrant. Freakin idiots.

Link here.

My stars there are some dumbasses on Sinking Alpha, Victoria Gold (VIT.v) edition

Seriously, how the blinking flip can you write this in an anal ysis of a company...
"Victoria Gold will also sell a 5% NSR royalty on the future production from the Eagle mine. The royalty will be sold for C$98 million (~$75 million) to Osisko Gold Royalties.
 ...and then write this just a few lines later?
"At a gold price of $1,300/toz, the after-tax NPV(5%) was estimated at $442 million (C$567 million) and the IRR at 32%. However, after the 2017 tax rate reduction, it increased approximately to $460 million. As 5% of the gold production will be sold to Osisko Gold Royalties in the form of NSR, the NPV attributable to Victoria Gold's shareholders should be around $437 million."
Riddle me that again, Sinking Alpha mining expert Peter Arendas (who pretends to be a PhD)? You are telling me that:

1) You recognize Sean Roosen is prepared to pay U$75m for an NSR.
2) That NSR reduces NPV of a project as pertains to VIT.v by U$23m.

So Sean Roosen has turned into a source of philanthropic charity money for needy and deserving junior mining companies, is that right? I will therefore continue with questions:
Do you understand what "NPV" stands for?
Do you know where to apply an NSR reduction on a financial model?
Are you seriously this stupid about financials?
If you are this stupid, why are you trying to fob yourself off as an expert?
And let's not even start on how the capex blowout changes the NPV (hint; by a lot). If it weren't for the fact that there are people who are going to take your complete dumbassery at face value and invest in VIT.v on the back of your words, this would be funny.


Louis Lobito Little Wolf James: A question

Is it just me, or does he sound exactly like Jared Kushner?

There will be no posts on this blog today

For secret reasons.


The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN460 has just been sent to subscribers. Another sub-standard edition.