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5/12/08

How long before Venezuela gets into the USA's axis club?

Thursday, I reckon.

On Thursday, we have the much-hyped Interpol report on the much hyped laptops recovered from the Colombian operation in Ecuador that killed a few FARC and a few civilians. From what we've been led to believe by leaks to the press (gosh...I wonder where they came from?), the evidence will be used to turn Hugo Chavez into a terrorist-loving warmonger who is a danger to the future of the whole human race. Or in other words, the same message as always from the USA, but this time we got evidence!

So what are the chances of a black ops move by the USA to 'take Chavez out'*? Well right now it's 'possible', not probable. The BS rhetoric from the USA has been upped a few notches in recent weeks, and then there's all this thing about the USA deciding to patrol LatAm waters (i.e. Venezuela) with its 4th fleet for the first time since I-dunno-when can only be called coincidental by total damnfools. The boats start touring July 1st. We also have reports of Chavez going to Moscow next months to buy U$2Bn (with a "B") of armaments, including submarines (of the diesel variety, but would represent a substantial upping of Venezuela's defence capacities). Then you have a Bush admin in its last months that has little to lose and a Bush Sr./Panama/Noriega-like victory against the forces of evil and drug nastymen to win.

A full on invasion/war with Venezuela is extremely unlikely; for the most basic point, the USA would not want to risk turning off 12% of its oil supply. But some kind of aggression between Colombia and Venezuela in the territories currently controlled by the FARC? Yep, that's possible. Then comes worldwide condemnations, embargoes etc etc and civil uprisings in Venezuela due to the sudden deterioration of the economy? Yeah...all that's a possible.

Like I say, all the above is just in the "possible" column, not the "probable" one. This Otto is going to see how things develop before stoking his own paranoia any further.


*In the words of Pat Robertson, and he wasn't talking about taking Hugo out to the cinema and then a pizza and a cold brew later.