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7/17/08

Merval likes Cobos

Merval five day chart

The Argentine market is rallying on the Cobos drama from last night. Banks and decent stocks like TEO are moving up nicely.

Volumes are still low, so I'd look for a retrace in stocks like GGAL, TEO, BMA etc and maybe look for a short term trade. But there is a lot of uncertainty in the air in Argentina right now, and the country is waiting to see how Klishtina reacts to the heavy defeat handed to her last night by her own Vice President. Those who go long will be looking for her to eschew party politics and say something "Presidential" along the lines of "we have heard the voice of the people and it is my duty to listen to the............etc etc".

I think, on balance, a few long positions in Argentine equities is a good risk/reward play today. Top pick is still Telecom Argentina. Short term trade, no farm bets, DYODD, watch closely how things develop.