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9/29/08

Reaction to the Ecuador referendum result (and a word on Cornerstone)

Correa supporter celebrates getting to within one metre of Studmuffin

Correa calls for unity, peace, love, 'not the end but the beginning' and every other cliché you've come to expect from a politico that whips his opposition's ass in fine style. What he actually said was, "I call on all Ecuadoreans of good will and faith to put their shoulders and hearts together and build together the Ecuador that we have been fighting and hoping for and which starting today is approaching reality."

Jaime Nebot (the face of the opposition and Guayaquil's mayor) says he's willing to sit down with Correa. Well, after getting his ass whipped soooo badly what else could he say?

Simon Romero writes fruitfly level analysis copy on his laptop in a bar in Caracas (and don't deny it, Simon...you were spotted).

Meanwhile, Ecuador exposed stocks like Corriente (CTQ.to) (ETQ) and Dynasty Metals (DMM.to) jumped at the bell but then immediately sold off. The news is positive for them, no doubts about that, but the greater fear in world markets is outplaying the local political factor this morning. So be it.

Meawhile, here's an under-the-radar play on Ecuador that is worth a second look. Cornerstone Capital (CGP.v) has been added to the S&P factual stock stable this morning, and you can get your copy of the file right here. Totally free. My stars, I look after you guys.

Cornerstone isn't a bad play on Ecuador right now because:

1) It's cheap. Real cheap. Beaten down with the others, but not rebounded yet.
2) It has plenty of cash at bank to fund its planned operations ($4m or so as at 2q08 filings)
3) It has plenty of interesting/prospective concessions in Ecuador, and now that the new mining law almost certainly won't limit any company to just three it will benefit from the news of the final publication in October. Trust Otto on that one.
4) Perhaps most importantly, it's in JV in Ecuador with Newmont (NEM), and once mining exploration gets underway again NEM can decided whether the projects at CGP.v are worthy of it spending $4m as a 51% buy-in. IF CGP.v gets its free ride from NEM at the Ecuador projects, expect the share to pop back to the 40c pre-stoppage levels of March.

This one is a high risk play...be very clear about that. However it's a good looking microjunior that has a nice chunk of cash at bank (important) and plenty of possible blue sky, so the high risk is offset by the high possible reward. DYODD please. I disclose that I do not own (and in fact I've never owned it), but it's one of those stocks I've always had an eye for.