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10/13/08

So how were the markets down here today?

I'm not into doing these "stock market roundup" kind of posts, basically because if you care enough you can plug your keywords into Reuters or Bloomie or DJNW or whatever else and find it all out easily enough. But just for once won't hurt because it's not every day you get returns on main regional indices such as...

Brazil up 14.66%
Chile up 13.01%
Peru up 15.88%
Mexico up 11+%
(Colombia and Argentina were closed because some dude sailed over here in 1492; those bourses get their fun tomorrow)

....and other moves such as the Brazilian Real upping 8.2% against the greenback (from R$2.326 Friday to R$2.146 at the official close today), the Mexican Peso up 5.79% and other suitably massive currency moves in all the other LatAms (which is exactly as I mentioned this morning in this post...ahem)

Amongst the stocks, check out the moves in SQM (yes J.A.!), TEO, all the Brazilian Banks, PBR (the ADR finished up 30%), RIO and all the other big boys. And that shiny new ADR from Colombia, Ecopetrol, has a sparkling day, too. So all in all, though the "record points score" on the Dow will catch the morning headlines we had our own full-on relief rally down here, too.

As for myself, I'm still in whuss mode and didn't buy or sell anything today...I'm certainly not going to chase this crazy market. As mentioned before, I'd much prefer to play it safe, miss the first part of a true bull run (if that's what this turns out to be, which I doubt) and pick up the safer returns. As it happens I'm going to be a bit of a killjoy and say I expect a sell-off at some point, and then afterwards look for some trading opportunities. In fact, if we don't get a re-test it wouldn't be very healthy for the longer term. However, I am cautiously optimistic that the worst of this mess is now past; today was a classic "just what we want to see" bigboy rally off of the previous day's panic/forced selling. I'll be looking for a significant move in the three month T-bill tomorrow which should hopefully add real liquidity to the market.

Final point to squeeze in; the wider economy is still a mess. Don't confuse what happened today with the blue funk that will be hanging round the world in six months' time; totally different subject.