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12/17/08

False Positivos, Brazilian style

It's not just Colombia that will lead people to the slaughter with 'false positives'. Check out how Bovespa quoted computer maker Positivo (POSI3.SA) has been thrown around by da boyz.

Now follow the bouncing ball, ladies and gentlemen:

1) Positivo Soars on Report Dell, Lenovo May Buy Company (Update3)
Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Positivo Informatica SA, Brazil’s biggest computer maker, soared the most since its initial public offering in 2006 in Sao Paulo trading on speculation Lenovo Group Ltd. and Dell Inc. may be interested in acquiring the company. Positivo rose 30 percent to 6.16 reais, the biggest gain since yada yada continues here

2) Lenovo’s Amelio Expects Industry Consolidation ‘Soon’ (Update1)
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Lenovo Group Ltd., China’s biggest personal-computer maker, expects PC companies to consolidate “soon” because of the global slump in stock prices, Chief Executive Officer William Amelio said.

“With equity values down significantly, there will be consolidations in this industry,” Amelio said in Shanghai today. There is “no news to share on” a possible plan by Lenovo to buy Brazil’s Positivo Informatica yada yada continues here

3)Positivo May Buy out Minority Shareholders, Itau Says (Update2)
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Positivo Informatica SA, the Brazilian computer company that more than doubled this week on takeover speculation, may buy out minority shareholders to proceed with a sale, Itau Corretora said. Positivo gained 16 percent to 10.44 yada yada continues here

4) Brazil’s Positivo Rallies for Fourth Day on Buyout Speculation
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Positivo Informatica SA, the Brazilian computer maker that doubled this week on takeover speculation, gained for a fourth day after Lenovo Group Ltd. said it’s in “preliminary” talks about potential investments.

Positivo climbed 6.3 percent to 11.10 reais at 9:45 a.m. New York time in Sao Paulo trading, extending its four-day advance to 6.35 reais.

Lenovo, China’s biggest personal-computer maker, hasn’t started any negotiations on possible acquisitions or agreed to any transaction terms with third parties, the company said in yada yada continues here.

5)Lenovo Says It’s in ‘Preliminary’ Acquisition Talks (Update3)
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Lenovo Group Ltd., China’s biggest personal-computer maker, said it’s in “preliminary” talks about potential investments, after the company’s shares rose 27 percent yesterday on speculation it will acquire Positivo Informatica SA. Lenovo hasn’t started any negotiations on possible acquisitions or agreed any transaction terms with third parties yada yada continues here

6) Positivo Plunges Most Ever on Report Lenovo Won’t Bid (Update2)
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Positivo Informatica SA, Brazil’s biggest computer maker, fell the most since shares began trading in 2006 on a report that Lenovo Group Ltd. dropped its pursuit of the company. Positivo slumped 23 percent to yada yada continues here

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Check those links and you'll find 'em all pumping the hell out of nothing; Unibanco, Citi, Itau, Goldman, you name the bank or broker with presence in Sao Paolo, they were all shouting their mouths off. All except for one. Agora's analyst Alan Cardoso quietly pointed out that there was no substance nor logic to the rumour on December 12th, but his voice was drowned out....until today. Kudos to Agora, but round trip sales commissions to the others. Believe me, it sucks being honest in this game.

Charles de Gaulle was right about Brazil. I'll leave you with this classic market cartoon that you've probably seen before, but it's a good one anyway.