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3/9/09

Peru: Does this look like a solid economy to you?

Words kept to a minimum this time as the charts can largely speak for themselves. This chart shows how Peru is now running a commercial trade deficit with the rest of the world. Not good.


This next chart shows that even though there's a fast-growing deficit, imports are actually dropping! It's the enormous cut in exports that's doing the real damage.

Here's a closer look at how much imports have dropped. Peru imported $400m less worth of goods in January 2009 compared to the same month of 2008.

But the equivalent chart for exports below is simply frightening. That's a drop of nearly one billion dollars in exports compared to the same month of 2008. This is a 100% non-sustainable situation for an emerging market country that depends on selling to the world. This cannot be stressed too strongly.

If we aggregate monthly imports and exports it gives a good idea of the enormous drop Peru has seen in trade with the rest of the world since the middle of 2008.

The Garcia administration is almost certainly most irresponsible government in Latin America. It refuses to admit there is a problem when it's staring anyone with a modicum of numbercrunching ability in the face. Peru's impex trade with the rest of the world has dropped by over $2.5Bn PER MONTH since last August and the country is now running a significant fiscal and trade deficit. This kind of obvious structural weakness will not be patched up by Carranza's much-trumpeted U$3bn stimulus...and half of that has been spent already!

Your choice: Stop believing the BS soft soap that Garcia, Carranza, S&P and Fitch tell you about Peru right now, or stop believing them when it's too late. But don't tell me I didn't warn you.

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Stop Peruvian Stupidity