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4/16/09

Another screaming "Copper has topped" signal


I really should STFU about this because so far the market has thrown my idea straight back in my face, but this one is so obvious and so clear and SO classic that I'd be remiss to not mention it.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the UK Daily Telegraph has already been featured on this humble corner of cyberspace, this because he's a world-ranking dumbass who makes a great living by screaming "it's the end of the woooorld" at his equally annoying readership. Anyone remember the time in 2007 when AEP predicted that China was about to dump their dollars on the world and cause the collapse of the US economy?

So anyway, today the dumbass really shows how much he knows about these things: NOTHING. His report entitled "A 'Copper Standard' for the World Economy" falls directly into the classic trap of regarding base metals as an asset class. Surely you remember all that talk this time last year from young'n'spotty fund managers in expensive suits who were promoting "copper as a hedge" against currencies? Those managers are now found flipping burgers (or should be, at least). As for AEP, he finishes his most ridiculous of arguments with this paragraph:

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Beijing may yet buy gold as well, although it has not done so yet. The gold share of reserves has fallen to 1pc, far below the historic norm in Asia. But if a metal-based currency ever emerges to end the reign of fiat paper, it is just as likely to be a "Copper Standard" as a "Gold Standard".
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That line of reasoning is:

1) Laughable. Repeat after me these six simple words, as if you don't know this you need to now. They will save you a lot of hardship going forward: COPPER IS NOT AN ASSET CLASS.

2) If necessary repeat it again. And again. Until it's nice and front'n'centre in your cranium.

3) A sure sign of copper topping out here. When the utterly ignorant promote a metal, commodity, stock or medium of exchange of any sort (esp. the ignorant who pretend to be the font of all wisdom), the more knowledgable make for the door and leave them holding a very large bag.

Yes, Virginia, I'm still bearish on copper.