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Peru's 2011 Presidential Race

Peru pollsters CPI came out with a new voter intention survey for the country's 2011 presidential race this morning. Here's how the scene is looking:

Mayor of Lima Luis Castañeda is still frontrunning, with daughter-of-a-convict Keiko in second place (and losing touch slightly). Then comes Nationalist/Lefty Ollanta Humala (though more popular in the rural areas than the urban places where this survey was taken) and in fourth place ex-Prez Toledo (who hasn't even said if he's a candidate yet).

With 5th placed Lourdes Flores now decided upon running for the Lima Mayor job instead of the big chair and then the other candidates not to be taken seriously, it looks like the next President of Peru will come from those first four names on the list. The last point is that it's notable just how many people there are disillusioned enough with the whole political scene to have already decided on "will spoil ballot", even at this early stage. In Peru the vote is obligatory, but there's nothing stopping you from writing silly stuff on your ballot sheet when in the darkened room and annulling your voice.

For what it's worth, if I had to bet (and you gave me decent enough odds) I'd put $5 on Toledo.