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I say things on Twitter

3/12/10

Rick Rule has good advice for you

Read the whole report right here, but this part has me saying yes, yes and thrice yes:

Another point he makes is that "paper always triumphs over gold. The only limit to the number of share certificates that Canadian juniors can issue is the standing inventory of timber between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. They can print dreams on pieces of paper as fast as you can buy them. What happens is that as demand for juniors picks up, the volume of pulp reduced to share certificates and printed with lies and sold to investors can expand geometrically."

As Rick sees it, the only way to make money in this sector is by "pawing through the frauds to find the needles of value in this fraudulent haystack. Not an easy thing to do."

As part of that process, he explains, "Whenever I buy a stock, I have an absolute reason for buying it. I have an informal target, particularly with regards to the juniors. Value is added by the probability of answers to some questions. Before I buy the stock, I say, 'What is the question?' 'How does the management team propose to answer it?' 'Is that efficient?' 'Do they have enough money to do that?' 'What is the likely value of yes?' 'What is the probability of yes?' 'And how long will it take to get that yes?'"

Generally speaking, Rick says that he personally will not buy a junior stock absent "a reasonable possibility of an 18-month double and. . .that a succession of 'yes' answers couldn't give me a tenfold return."

Applying a similar philosophy in reverse, Rick says, "Knowing when to sell a stock really is a function of understanding why you bought it. For example, in the crash 18 months ago, I bought a couple of stocks selling at half cash. Because they didn't have much in the way of properties. . .they would be fairly valued when they were selling at cash. So when the market prices went from half cash to the price of the cash—when my expectation was met—I sold the stocks. I don't regard stocks as pieces of paper that trade. I regard them as fractional ownership of businesses, and when the price of that fractional ownership comes to reflect my value of the business, I'm a seller."


Link to article. Fully recommended reading for mineheads.