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5/7/10

Ventana Gold (VEN.to), reader feedback and the difference between what goes on here at the blog and what goes on in The IKN Weekly

This morning I received one of the nicest mails ever from a long-time reader and subscriber to The IKN Weekly. The dude in question has been a fan of and investor in Ventana Gold (VEN.to) for a long time and we've swapped ideas on the stock on more than one occasion, but today he told me something I hadn't known. When the Ventana property problems hit back in November, your author ran an analysis of the situation in IKN31 and offered some practical advice. It turns out that 'Subscriber X' (as we'll call him) took that advice and, without ever mentioning it, sold the majority of his VEN stock. He then went about repurchasing at much lower prices earlier in 2010 and has made a big difference to an already winning position. I've been given permission to excerpt from his mail (and excuse the missing bits, but there's some sensitive information edited out by necessity):

"....a key factor in my Ventana trade was your analysis in that edition (ottonote: IKN31). General market consensus at the time was resolution would occur in days or weeks. You saw it differently, presented a solid case and I ran with that call. I sold .......... and then bought back (a couple of months later).........when prices were at lows. The insight you offered (in IKN31) made me a lot of money. Can I pay in advance for the next ten years?!".

(answer: no you can't :-).
As I say, that sell-buy move by Subscriber X was unknown to me until today. The dude (and believe me, he really is a 'dude') deserves full credit on the deal too, as it was all off his own bat. As for the advice proferred in IKN31, here how the discussion in the issue concluded, as it fairly sums up the position taken at that time:
"If I had to guess, I’d say that the most likely outcome is an equitable settlement that takes months. Not weeks and not years, but maybe 6 to 12 months. But that’s just my wild guesstimate and I’d need a lot more on-the-ground information before making anything more than a simple finger-in-the-air guess. But I will say that VEN will have to cut a deal with the locals at some point or other. Not much doubt about that one.

........

"By way of disclosure, I am not long or short VEN and intend to stay that way. With that said, my best guess is that the stock has further to drop before we get resolution on this matter. DYODD."
In the end, the deal didn't quite take six months, as start-to-finish of the problem turned out to be 5 1/2 months. But hey, the IKN analysis (based on facts and opinion extensively explained in that issue) was much closer than the talking heads back in November and December who were assuring the market that it would take just a couple of weeks to resolve, that any price under $10 should be snapped up and only a fool would sell this news. We were also right about a deal being cut and that the arbitration moves wouldn't amount to much and wouldn't bring about a final result (yet again, against the grain of popular opinion at the time).

The greatest thing about Subscriber X's long mail, the thing that gives me the greatest pleasure about it, was that he was smart enough to take the information offered up by The IKN Weekly and use it in his own way. In other words, a shining example of the best type of subscriber possible. Readers and subscribers know that this humble scribe has no direct exposure to Colombian junior mining through personal choice, but that doesn't stop us from analyzing the country and its development in an ongoing and level-headed way over at The IKN Weekly. This is one of the main differences between the ranty blog and the more measured tone of the Weekly (something that subbers tell me should change on the blog, but i don't care so much). The IKN Weekly doesn't treat people like sheep, telling them what they should or shouldn't do at any given moment; we try our best to offer up the facts before personal opinion and allow people to use the insight to form their own opinions.