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10/10/11

The South America World Cup Qualifiers: Round Two


Wow, matchday two already! Yep, tomorrow Tuesday the futbol is back on, with four matches to choose from and some decent bets available too. Here are the games and the odds supplied by Ladbrokes dot com:

Bolivia (5/4) Draw (23/10) Colombia (2/1)
Chile (4/7) Draw (13/5) Peru (5/1)
Paraguay (6/4) Draw (11/5) Uruguay (17/10)
Venezuela (6/1) Draw (3/1) Argentina (4/9)

(By the way, there's also Mexico vs Brazil tomorrow, but you bet on friendlies at your own peril).

First the good news, as our bet Friday paid off in style and Peru beat Paraguay 2-0. This means our original $100 virtual betting bankroll is up to $156 (and thanks for the feedback from last week's post, including the guy (reader 'HG')mad enough to take my call at face value and put his cash on my brainwanderings...don't make it a habit, dude). Thus we got money to burn and we're gonna burn it on three bets.

The most interesting fixture is Chile vs Peru and although going to Santiago and winning is always very tough, even for the top ranked teams like Argentina or Brazil, the 5/1 offered by Ladbrokes is too tempting to pass over (I'd personally handicapped it at 3/1 before checking their page). Peru played well in Lima last Friday, Chile played poorly in Buenos Aires last Friday, so the away team is going in with its tails up and the home team are under pressure to perform. The home advantage in Chile is very strong, however, so even with last week's games in mind Chile is clear favourite for this match and there's a lot of rivalry between these two sides, so passion will run high

To the betting! We're going to hedge our bets on this one and put $10 on the draw at 13/5 (which would pay $36) and then $10 on the Peru win at 5/1 (which would return $60). Therefore a Chile win sees us losing $30, a draw gives us a $16 profit and a Peru win triples our overall wager.

The other bet tomorrow is for Argentina to beat Venezuela in Venezuela. It's a short price for a good reason and we're putting $50 on that at 4/9, for a total return if successful of $72.22. To sum all that up:
  • $10 on a Chile /Peru draw, price 13/5, total return envisaged: $36
  • $10 on Peru to win, price 5/1, total return envisaged: $60
  • $50 on Argentina to win, price 4/9, total return envisaged: $72.22

Which leaves $86 in the pot for another day. And let's see how we get on.

UPDATE Tuesday PM: And now you know why I don't do these things for a living. All bets lost and just $86 to take to the next round, mid-November. Humph.