The XKCD radiation dose chart

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This is excellent. Click and learn

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Humala 2nd place in tomorrow's Apoyo poll?

I'll tell you what I've picked up, no more and no less, then it's your choice to believe or not. About half an hour ago (7pm EST Saturday 19th) somebody told me that Ollanta Humala was being put in second place in the IPSOS/Apoyo opinion poll to be published Sunday March 20th for the Presidential vote on April 10th. My source isn't totally convinced of the veracity of this intel because according to said source it came from a friend who was told by a member of the Humala campaign inner circle who in turn claims to have been given an early sneak preview of the numbers that will get published tomorrow. However, my source is sufficiently intruiged with this and gives it enough substance to have passed it on. In the same spirit, this post gets written.

That's all I know up to now (apart from the name of my source and don't even think about asking). Let's see how the IPSOS/Apoyo poll turns out tomorrow morning (one of the best polling firms in Peru as regards accuracy and non-bias, fwiw). If indeed Ollanta Humala is in second place behind Alejandro Toledo, there are going to be a lot of shockwaves. Watch this space.

PS: The integrity and trustworthiness of my source is unquestionable. A straight shooter and one of the good'uns of life.

Putting Libya's position into perspective

No better explanation than this:

VeeeATCH! Is the world ready?

YAY and about time too, so please follow the following instructions carefully, IKN readers:

1) Click through on this link and make the blog that's waiting for you part of your weblife as from today. Use bookmarking, use RSS (my fave), use the twitterfeed or use the link over there on the right of our humble page as from today.

2) End of instructions.

Peruvian death squad members in The UK?

Here's how British newspaper The Independent kicks off this very strange story about a possible perp of human rights crimes that include mass torture and murders who's turned up running an Italian restaurant in Sleepyville England. Click through for the rest.

The high street in Tiverton, Devon, is just like that of any other small market town – with a tea shop, a barber's, an Indian restaurant and a second-hand bookseller – except that at the local Italian, the man tending the bar and waiting tables is on bail for alleged torture and crimes against humanity.

Il Gatto Nero was closed for business for two days this week, prompting the landlord to fear that his tenant Rodrigo Grande, a 46-year-old Peruvian, had "done a runner". In fact, Mr Grande was 15 miles away at Exeter police station, being questioned about his alleged role in the torture and murder of hundreds of Peruvian civilians in the 1980s and early 1990s, when government-backed death squads moved to quash the Maoist insurgent movement known as the Shining Path.

While Mr Grande was being questioned, Metropolitan Police officers searched both his restaurant and his rented home nearby, removing mobile phones and computer equipment. He is now on bail and expected to present himself to police in London in July.

Mr Grande, who is 6ft tall and was dressed in jeans and a cardigan when located by The Independent, protested his innocence yesterday. "They wanted to speak to me about when I worked as a police officer in Peru. I have done nothing. I have done nothing," he said, refusing to say more about the matter.

CONTINUES HERE

A quick and general mailbag comment

One of the best side benefits of running this blog is the stimulating  exchanges I get to have with very smart and insightful people via mail. This week's mailbag has been a shining example and I'd just like to send a generalized 'thank you' to the people who've taken time and sent me their observations, critiques, thoughts and suchlike recently. You know who you are and I'm very grateful for the chance to exchange with so many bright minds.

Want to help the Japanese? Then donate to Mexicans

Los Topos (the mole men) are the world famous voluntary brigade (that's right, they don't get paid for risking their lives and saving others) of Mexicans that fly out at a moment's notice to dig other people out of collapsed buildings in the event of an earthquake, so not surprisingly right now they're in Japan and adding to their previous count of thousands of lives saved in all parts of the world. Evergood Mexico site The Mex Files has more on their tasks at this post today and also gives out a paypal address to donate cash to Los Topos that IKN repeats right here:

donativos@brigada-rescate-topos.org

I've used that PayPal payment address this morning and, if you want to help the Japan relief effort but haven't worked out a good way of doing so yet, perhaps you'd also consider this most excellent cause (and if you live in a earthquake zone the way I do there may even be a moment when the Topos change your own destiny...you never know).  There's a bank account that accepts donations to Los Topos over at the MexFiles post, too.

The Friday OT: XTC; Generals and Majors

This quality slice of 80s pop chosen to commemorate what's about to happen in Libya.

Song trivia: The promo video was shot at the last minute at the country mansion of Richard Branson and yes, that's Sir Richard himself heavily featured in the video. He later ripped off the band who then went to court and got back the royalty money he was skimming from them. Hey, all's fair in love war and kapitalism, right?

Song non-trivia: For those who think bandpop is always superficial and facile music, check out the musicianship on this track. Nothing easy about this tune, it just sounds like it when you let the finished product wash over you. As RB at 10% would say, "CHOOOOOON!!"

Chernobyl + Fukushima + market greed + technical anal(ysis) = this chart

I've noticed how chartists love to do these things....

....and how badly their logic pans out in the end, too. H/T to zipper theory, a smart market player to follow on twitter.

Aristide money quote

This came out his lips about two minutes ago:

"In 1804 Haitian people marked the end of slavery. Today we mark the end of repression and coup d'état."

Ouch, suck it Hillary. Haiti about to live in another round of interesting times, methinks. For background to Aristide's arrival in Haiti today, here's a link.

What Goldman Sachs thinks about gold right now

If you want to read a copy of the nine page report out of GS yesterday then mail me (for some reason I can't get it to download into the normal filesharing site) but here's the text from the front page that gives the quickread of contents below the fold. Suffice to say that Goldman likes gold (and who am I to argue?).

Gold set to rally as events send US real interest rates lower 

Optimism over the state of the global economic recovery at the start of the year, which drove US real interest rates sharply higher – and gold prices lower – has been tempered by the ongoing events in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Japan, sending the 10-year US TIPS yield down to near 80 bp, setting the stage for the next gold price rally.

We expect gold prices to rally toward our 3-month price target of $1480/toz, and continue to recommend a long gold trade. While the protests and threat to oil supplies in the Middle East and North Africa drove COMEX gold prices to a new record high of $1437/toz on March 2, the events in Japan have paradoxically sent gold prices back below $1400/toz despite the ongoing decline in US 10-year TIPS yields. Given the decline in US real interest rates, we see the recent retracement in gold prices as offering a good buying opportunity, and maintain our long gold trading recommendation as we expect gold to rally to our 3-month price target of $1480/toz.

We see strong upside to gold prices in the near term, but continue to expect rising US real rates to lead prices to peak in 2012. We expect gold prices to move higher throughout 2011, but continue to believe that gold at current price levels is a compelling trade, not a longterm investment. In particular, we expect that as US real interest rates rise with the recovery in the US economy, gold prices will likely reach a peak in 2012.

We expect gold to rally following the recent events, but the PGM outlook is increasingly tied to the speed of Japan’s recovery. The sell-off in PGM prices accelerated after the Japanese earthquake, with platinum prices down 5% and palladium prices down 9% this week. While PGM prices softened with the rise in oil prices accompanying the MENA events, the recent declines reflect the potential loss of autocatalyst demand from idled automobile manufacturing in Japan. Not only does Japan account for 12.6% of global automobile production, it also accounts for a large share of global industrial PGM consumption: 16.4% for platinum and 18.1% for palladium in 2010.

Mo' Greystar (GSL.to)

As well as the more...errr....what's the word here?....err...strident views put forward about Greystar (GSL.to) at this humble corner of cyberspace (check here for 'em all) over at The IKN Weekly we've also been following the case closely, but the news and views have been far more focussed on what the affair might throw up by way of investment opportunities. Here follows the last in the series that was part of IKN97, last Sunday. A few notes afterwards:

What you now need to know about Greystar Resources (GSL.to)

This is the last segment we’re running on GSL and it won’t take long:

1)      The decision on its Environmental permit approval is scheduled to come on (or perhaps before) Arpil 15^th 2011.

2)      The company will be denied its permit. To update the quantative call on this, I’d call it a 98% to 2% chance of a bad day for the company.

3)      If it moves up from its current $2.78 and into the mid $3’s between now and early April on silly gringo speculation of a GSL win, it may be a decent short oppportunity.

4)      However it’s not a company destined to go to $0.00. It currrently holds around $1.10/share in working capital and there are plenty of its resource ounces that lie under the Páramo altitude limit that’s causing it all the permitting problems. I’ve seen estimates of up to 3m oz Au held by GSL that could be worked into a brand new mining plan that certainly couldn’t be presented to the world overnight but would give an asset backbone to the company.

5)      As it happens I am not short GSL but I do know a market player that was short GSL recently. Last Tuesday I wrote to him on a purely friendly basis and suggested that there was a bottom in the GSL downspike. As it happens he’d covered the day before and taken his profits. Smart guy you are, XXXXX.

IKN blog back. You'll note that certain things didn't happen exactly as stated in the text read by subscribers last weekend. For example the permit wasn't officially denied in April, instead GSL.to withdrew its EIA/EIS application in March because it knew the game was up all by itself. Also, you'll note that the spec bounce over $3 didn't happen, so the shorting opportunity didn't show up either. The point here is that political risk issues are rarely fixed on rails and the story will emerge in its own way, but by getting the basic call right you either 1) save money for yourself and others (i.e. your author has no position whatsoever in GSL.to, not long not short, and sincerely hopes that subscribers aren't long after all that they've read these last few months) or you 2) get a call out there that makes money for others (i.e. the redacted first name at the bottom of that IKN97 text). 

So this morning GSL is halted on the TSX and LSE pending news and anyone that knows how to use Google will know what the news coming contains, we're just left wondering how much spin the GSL management will put on the story...and whether they do the decent thing and resign their asses out of the cushy jobs they've spun themselves after doing absolutely nothing of value and spending umpteen millions of dollars of shareholder cash for the last 15 years. I'll probably stick an update on this post later when the GSL NR hits.  DYODD, dudettes and dudes.

UPDATE 10:44est: There's a rumour in the village that the upcoming GSL NR will flatly deny that the company is withdrawing the permit application and will call BS on the Colombian politicos' words of yesterday evening. We'll see how this one plays out and leave you with a quick quote of "Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice....."

Update 2: An hour and a half later and it turns out the rumours were about 3/4 1/2 correct. Here's the link to the GSL NR just out, I'll leave it to you to read and decide.

Chart of the day is....

...gold.

Crisis, what crisis? And now for today's Japan music.

We'll get something a little boppier up as the Friday OT later, but this one catches a lot of feeling about wastelands.

Greystar (GSL.to): Bad news for Nicholas CampbellSoup of Canaccord

And thus Greystar (GSL.to) bows to the inevitable and withdraws its plans to develop the Angostura gold deposit in the Páramo de Santurban region of Colombia:

Reuters got it in English here.

How you feeling, Soupy? Looks like you're going for a quick doublefail in Colombia with your very silly "got 10m oz" call on Batero (BAT.v) the other day, too.

PS: Oh yeah, nearly forgot. Don't just laugh at Nicholas CampbellSoup's Colombia thoughts, cos you'd  also be wise in the future not to take investment advice about junior mining companies from the people at Amber Capital LLC, of 990 Third Ave, Suite 200, NY NY USA. After all, they decided to up their holding to 10% of this dog this month. Hopefully, they weren't playing sillyfools with your money, gentle reader. NR excerpt right here for your dee lek tay shun:

"After giving effect to the acquisition noted in item 2 above, the Offeror beneficially owns and controls 8,422,343 common shares in the capital of the Company, representing in the aggregate approximately 10% of the outstanding common shares of the Company (based upon the 84,218,363 common shares stated by the Company to be outstanding as of November 9, 2010)"

DYODD

Bombing for peace

In 2009 Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Is it just me, or has the world gone absolutely fucking crazy?

Peru Presidential Election: The battle is for second place

We're now just 3 1/2 weeks from the first round of voting to decide who becomes the next President of Peru. With a voting system that allows a winner to be declared if any candidate gets 50% +1 vote, we're now in an almost certain situation where the top two voted will go into a run-off for the job.

There are five live candidates left. Here's a quick rundown on each, plus a rough average of where the last couple of reliable polls put their numbers. I'm also adding what I consider each candidate's percentage chance of making it into the 2nd round (NB: not to become President but to get through to the run-off).

Alejandro Toledo: Polling roughly 26% and even though that number has dropped slightly form the 28% or thereabouts of a few weeks ago he's still a racing certainty to lead the voting on April 10th. The big question now is who will he be up against. The answer will come from one of the next four names. Otto's call on Toledo's run-off chances: 99% (not 100% because never say never, but apart from real weirdness happening, he's there).

Keiko Fujimori: Polling roughly 19% or 20%, Keiko enjoys a hardcore of pro-Fujimori voters (mostly from the lower social strata) that have kept her numbers steady. I see Keiko as setting a benchmark for others to beat if they can, because if not Keiko will make it into the run-off. Otto's call on Keiko's run-off chances: 50%.

Luis Castañeda: Polling roughly 17%. He was leading the polls most of the way through 2010, was neck and neck with Keiko for a long time and now he's fading. His campaign has been a poor one and his decline comes as little surprise considering what the Peruvian public has seen from him. A spent force and not presidential material. Otto's call on Castañeda's run-off chances: 5%.


Ollanta Humala. Polling roughly 15%. By contrast, Ollanta has conducted an effective and impressive campaign and the last couple of weeks have seen his numbers rise from roughly 11%...he's on a roll. He's kept the hardcore left wing policy choices out the limelight, has avoided wearing army fatigues and casual clothing this time and opted for plenty of suits and ties, he's had a pro-poor people message that the lower economic strata have believed (unlike Castañeda, who comes across as saying any old thing to make himself popular). Ollanta has been at his best in street level campaigning and may surprise a lot of people with the size of his vote in provincial/rural Peru.Otto's call on Ollanta's run-off chances: 35%.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski: Polling roughly 11%. PPK is also on a polling roll, having seen his numbers move up from the rough 6% level recently. however there's a big gap between him and Keiko (and the other two) so unless the Castañeda campaign goes into out-and-out freefall and potential Castañeda voters turn to PPK as the useful vote alternative, the breach looks too big at this late stage to cover. However, PPK's campaigning has also been good, especially since changing tactics a few weeks ago and hammering on his strong points (economy above all).Otto's call on PPK's run-off chances: 10%. 

Conclusion: The most likely scenario is Alejandro Toledo vs Keiko Fujimori in the run-off, although be clear that Toledo vs Humala wouldn't be a big shock to me any longer (it would have been 6 months ago, which is a back-handed way of congratulating Humala on a good campaign no matter whether one agrees or not with his politics). Castañeda is likely toast, PPK is moving too late (though another move up to 15% or so in the next set of polls is very possible). Then in round two, Toledo wins.

A Flash update...

...was sent to subscribers about 15 minutes ago (just after 10:30 EST).

UPDATE: New subscriber 'RJ' who joined March 11th, your mailbox is still full and the mails sent to you are still bouncing. Please get in contact (and pls contact even if you're receiving correspondence, because this situation concerns me)

The most obvious spin-out in the whole of South America's mining scene is now happening

And about time too. We'll have a look at this at the weekend, subbers. Here's how the NR starts, click to continue

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 03/17/11) - Minera Andes Inc. (the "Corporation" or "Minera Andes") (TSX:MAI - News)(OTC.BB:MNEAF - News) is pleased to announce that it intends to complete a spin-out its Los Azules Copper Project into a new publicly traded company.

The Los Azules Project is a 100% owned advanced-stage porphyry copper exploration project located in the cordilleran region of San Juan Province, Argentina near the border with Chile. It is one of the world's largest undeveloped copper deposits with an indicated mineral resource of 137 million tonnes grading 0.73% copper, equivalent to 2.2 billion pounds of copper, and an inferred mineral resource of 900 million tonnes grading 0.52% copper, equivalent to 10.3 billion pounds of copper. Exploration and infill drilling continues with five drills currently operating at the Los Azules Copper Project.

-- Management believes now is the time to unlock the value and potential of
Minera Andes' world class Los Azules Copper Project.
-- The spin-out of the Los Azules Copper Project allows Minera Andes
shareholders CONTINUES HERE

Laura Meckler of the WSJ, winner of this week's coveted award

This is the condescending drivel written in the lead para of her note this morning:

"With the Middle East in turmoil, Japan’s nuclear reactors at least partly melting down and Congress in the midst of a budget battle, President Barack Obama is going to … Latin America."

Let's be clear before continuing that this is not about Obama's job choices, because he's turned out to be a tosser too. Oh my stars, I'm so tempted to come out with a whole line of words that I wouldn't use in my mother's presence. But I'm going to keep it steady, make it clear this is just another slice of the normal "our backyard" piffle that your idiots in power up there still cling to and then tell the ridiculous excuse for a journalist named Laura Meckler to...

Chart of the day is....

...gold, which is doing just fine so far this week.

It must really be pissing the "gold is dead" braindead brigade that in the middle of an enormous market wobble, gold hasn't seen much more than 3% off its price at at moment.

Wednesday Dance-Out: Calle 13; Baile De Los Pobres

Blowing away the cobwebs of another grotty market day, LatAm's hottest new band and their new album is just great great great and getting mountains of airtime Chez Otto.

And now, a quick Spanish lesson:

Title: Baile de los pobres = The dance of the poor people

Line One literal translation: "No tengo mucha plata pero tengo cobre" = "I don't have much silver but I have copper"

Line One real translation (taking into account Spanish slang): "No tengo mucha plata pero tengo cobre" = "I don't have much money but I'm vulgar".

Dedicated to reader 'RB', who likes his Indian fusion music (but i bet he's never heard it fused with Cumbia)

Uranium in China, dumbasses in Canada

Just so you know, here's a chunk from Scotia's Mining Scoop e-mail this morning (IKN puts the fun bit in bold type):

"More on Uranium Sector - These recent events are likely to lead developed nations to take a more cautious view regarding nuclear power, the governments of China , Russia and South Korea have all stated that the events in Japan will not affect those country's long term nuclear programs. However, China has suspended approvals for proposed nuclear power plants and is making a comprehensive safety check of atomic plants following Japan 's nuclear crisis, the State Council said overnight.  ‪The Council meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao declared through a Statement that: “We will temporarily suspend approval of nuclear power projects, including those in the preliminary stages of development, pending the ratification of a new Nuclear Safety Plan and the revision/improvement of the Medium to Long-Term Nuclear Energy Development Plan… We must fully grasp the importance and urgency of nuclear safety, and development of nuclear power must make safety the top priority. We will use the most advanced standards to proceed with a safety assessment of all nuclear plants under construction.  Any hazards must be thoroughly dealt with, and those that do not conform to safety standards must immediately cease construction.” China Strategist to Scotia Capital notes that the drafting and approval of a new Nuclear Safety Plan will likley take close to one year.  Germany plans to shut down 7 nuclear reactors for a period of 3 months, pending a safety review would, in our estimates remove up to 1.0 Mlb of uranium demand in the context of a global market of roughly 195 Mlb. Remember that Asia (specifically China) and Eastern Europe (specifically Russia) represent 95% of the expected growth in reactor units between 2010 and 2015, and 86% of the expected growth between 2010 and 2020."

Nice quote, yeah? But afterwards Scotia goes and messes it all up by laying on the Kool-aid for its worried U longs and saying:

"And although Chinese approvals may be delayed, Scotia Mining Sales does not think this will materially change the long term goal of increasing reliance on nuclear power vs. coal."

Yeah, right. Move along now, nothing to see here, all the world's gonna love having a nuke plant built next door in the future because the designs they use are infallible, aren't they? So here's a link that only those working at Scotia Mining Sales are allowed to click...nobody else (apart from Lobito and Marin, anyway). Oh, and by the way spot U prices are now at $55/lb, from $60 yesterday and $69/lb this time last week. But who's counting, right?

UPDATE: My stars, a lot of people work at Scotia Mining Sales, don't they?. Just 30 minutes after the post went up and 73 clicks registered on that link already. Mind you, two of them must be my resident Casey Research staff member readers, so that explains a bit I suppose......

UPDATE 2: I wonder what sort of ridiculous BS spin the dumbasses trying to sow Hope™ from their comfy desks in Vancouver and Toronto are going to put on this NR?:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA AND JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA, March 16 /CNW/ - Uranium One Inc. ("Uranium One") today announced that JSC Atomredmetzoloto ("ARMZ") has notified Mantra Resources Limited ("Mantra") that ARMZ believes that the recent serious events at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Japan are likely to have a material adverse effect on the business, results of operations, assets or liabilities, financial position or prospects of Mantra.  As such, ARMZ considers that the condition precedent in the Scheme Implementation Agreement dated December 15, 2010 between ARMZ and Mantra relating to a material adverse change is not capable of being satisfied.

ARMZ has indicated to Mantra that it intends to continue discussions with Mantra in an effort to explore how the transaction between two companies may proceed by way of an alternative approach.

Uranium One will provide further updates as additional information becomes available.

Is the message about U getting through yet? DYODD and don't believe a word that comes out of the mouths of liars who rely on your money for their salary. And hey dudettes and dudes, I was calling on this theme Friday morning before the word 'meltdown' had even started trending. It's called straight talk, a old fashioned concept that's good for your bank account.

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 36

Today's attempt to decipher mining-news-release-English into something that sentient beings have a chance of understanding comes from the IR department of Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN.ax) (PDN.to):

This is what they wrote:

PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA--(Marketwire - March 16, 2011) - Paladin Energy Ltd. (TSX:PDN - News; ASX:PDN - News; "Paladin" or the "Company") expresses its deepest condolences to the people of Japan following the tragic events of Friday 11 March 2011. "We are very saddened by the catastrophic events and extreme loss of life following the dual natural disasters of an earthquake and tsunami", stated John Borshoff, Managing Director/CEO of Paladin. "We are encouraged that Fukushima plant managers are making public safety their highest priority and although the situation remains of grave concern it seems to be progressing slowly towards stabilisation of the damaged reactors".

Paladin has had numerous queries regarding its business with Japan and the impact of recent events. While the Company endeavours to work with all participants in the nuclear sector and is developing a regional diversified sales portfolio, it does not currently have a commercial relationship with Japanese utilities. Paladin has a strong balance sheet with US$251.8M in cash as of 31 December 2010; is on track to produce 6Mlb to 6.3Mlb U3O8 in FY 2011; and commissioning of Langer Heinrich Mine Stage 3 expansion to 5.2Mlb U3O8 will occur in April giving the Company an installed capacity to provide 8.5Mlb U3O8 pa.

Paladin continues to believe that the medium and long-term outlook for nuclear power remains positive and that recent events could further exacerbate the supply situation, ironically putting Paladin in an even better position with respect to global demand. There are more than 440 nuclear reactors operating safely around the world and growth of the fleet is assured with the 62 reactors currently under construction, with further expansion forecast from the emerging nuclear economies.

Paladin will hold a conference call regarding the Japanese nuclear situation on Thursday 17 March details below (continues here)

And this is what it means:

We're fucked.

UPDATE: Two images to share. First this one, the intraday chart of PDN.to so far:

Then this one (Mex guise by reader request):

Thorium and soda served, the end

So I took down the advert advertising adverts last night...

...y'know, that blurb above that offered up the space for sale. I got enquiries from two non-miners in the end but after the second one it began to dawn on me that I don't really want to take any old advertiser on the blog any more just for the money. After all, that's what I had with Google Adsense all that time and it was one of the main reasons for getting rid of it.

So I'll just leave the space empty from now on, or perhaps return that "what they're saying about IKN" sillypiece. But I will say that as long as they want the slice of real estate I'm more than happy to have a site sponsor in Verdmont Capital. Not only does the company sector match what happens round here, but they have an excellent reputation and it's good to hang around good people. And weirdly, the boss guy there seems to enjoy reading this humble corner of cyberspace (no accounting for taste, is there?).

End of another bit of in-house navel gazing. Getting bored yet?

the Flash update subscribers seemed to like yesterday...

...yeah, here it is. Just cleaned out a couple of minor typos and redacted a ticker symbol we're currently buying, the rest is as stands for your enjoyment or boredom or whatever.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Good morning, half an hour before the opening bell.

I'd like to make a few market comments and revisit my playbook for gold as seen in IKN97.

A word or two on potential selling. It's worth reflecting that an exit strategy in troubled times is not a bad thing. However, making up reasons for sudden selling on the spur of the moment is nearly always a bad investment tactic (its common name is "panicking"). I'd also like to make it clear that I am currently not a seller of my portfolio stocks, however I'm currently not a buyer, i wasn't a buyer yesterday bar a very small starter position in XXX.v (liquidity was poor in XXX, i held back) and I'm not looking for bargains this week. I do have a thought-out strategy for liquidation if it becomes necessary, but there's no way I abandon value position with gold still very high (1400 might have gone this morning, but 1300 is enough for me on most issues).

However I am not you, you are not me and our circumstances are different, of that I'm sure. I'd only suggest that you think through any exit strategy and not rush into one. If after reasoning you believe that selling is the best call for you today, that's fine.


I'd now like to re-check on the "gold playbook" that was featured in IKN97 in light of the Japan events. Here it is reprinted with newly added notes and then more commentary afterwards. The Sunday lines are in bold type, the new comments are in red.

First up the very short term that favours gold.

Check, but it really was very short term and lasted precisely one day. Yesterday.

Second up the short-term that starts to worry about the velocity of money, factors in the (what I believe are wholly false flag) signals from the Fed and their pals that QE3 isn’t going to happen, starts to buy the deflation angles and drops some.

Check. This is happening now. It's happening more quickly than I thought it might, but still fits logically into the "very short term" then "short term" as laid out on Sunday. What we're seeing this morning is a deflationary episode and that, ladies and gentlemen, is based on deceleration of money (aka world economies)

Third up, short-term phase two which is strong market support that’s driven by Chinese bullion purchases and keeps gold from dropping to the levels expected by the bears.

This may now happen simultaneously with stage four below, due to what I see as a condensed timeline.

Next, the medium term that sees more quantative easing because there’s no way round it, the world of finance policymakers (start with Bernanke, check off the list at your leisure) will need to offer up all the financial liquidity it can muster.

It's notable that today the Fed FOMC happens. With the Bank of Japan pumping liquidity into its own economy and the Fed's recent history of doing the same to avert crises, iIwouldn't be at all surprised to see Bernanke and his friends taking measures to halt the deflationary pulse in its tracks. This is a tough call and it's a dangerous to try and second-guess the Fed, but what I would suggest is that there are plenty of big money people thinking the same lines this morning, which will quickly become an desire or even expectation of a Bernanke put and not just a hope. If the Fed then does not deliver, things could get smelly later this week.

And that’s as far as my playbook goes for the moment, leaving the long-term gold calls in the hands of those who like using the word Weimar to explain their bad grasp on economics. The bottom line on gold is that I expect it to be choppy in the near-term, but nothing drastic to the downside and a decent shot at holding $1400 and then moving higher.

As is clear today, my decent shot at gold holding 1400 has gone. I'm checking on Kitco as I write now and have seen 1382 followed by 1388 a couple of minutes later, so volatility is clear.

Then the medium term sees it higher no doubts. In other words, I’m a holder of gold bullion and plenty of junior exposure to the sector and it’s going to stay that way.

This has not changed

The bottom line to the playbook is that things are happening faster than I imagined but at least the train of logic is holding together so far. The Fed meeting today will have many eyes upon it and as we know Bernanke doesn't even like the sound of the word 'deflation', let alone its potential effects and the ball is now in his court, I see no reason to panic out of long positions until we know more from there. However there are wild cards in this week's scenario, not least of which the nuclear power plant situation in Japan. It pays to closely observe newsflow at the moment and to remember that playbooks are not orders set in stone and can be changed to adapt to dynamic circumstances.

Finally and to repeat the same sentiment, if you sell today that's fine by me and you won't hear a word of complaint as long as you are being a rational person about your sales and not just kidding yourself into one while you panic. In the words of John Donne, 'know thyself'.

Best, O

Chart of the day is....

..wheat, daily candles.

After all, a guy's gotta eat, right? And Bernanke won't admit there's any inflation in the system until we slap him in the face with a loaf of ten dollar bread. DYODD

Reading material

Here's an interesting article. Written in 1989 by Michael Lewis (of Liar's Poker fame), its title is an uplifting and cheery, "How a Toyko Earthquake Could Devastate Wall Street and the World Economy".

Guaranteed to make the winter evenings fly by. Sakes served, the end.

News roundup (no silly parentheses today as every time the word Japan floats back into my brain all the jokes disappear)

We're keeping it LatAm-focussed, but remember what's important in life and what's not. I really think you'd be much better off reading other websites today and not this one, as all LatAm has to offer is minutae.

Best political quote of the day is Alejandro Toledo's "Not all Apristas are corrupt." His new tactic is clearly "Remember folks, I'm the one you vote for if you don't like Alan" which is a smart strategic move.

Guatemala's youth killings. Central American Politics has the latest figures and they're not nice at all.

Today's good market link is Cam Hui over at Humble Student of the Markets and his "A test of the Bernanke put" because Cam is being as insightful as always. This is good.

For Spanish speakers looking for more insight on the Argentina political events and guidance to the 2011 Presidentials later this year, today's post by Abel is unmissable.

Today's action in gold

I'm impressed with gold's resilience this morning. Five minute candle chart here:

If it holds current levels the We-All-Gonna-Die brigade will be washed out the market without too much damage and what's left can only be good. Oh yeah, I'm watching FOMC this week. Are you watching FOMC this week? Will Bennyboy turn the spigot or won't he? Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieures...

Market quote of the day

From Jonathan's 'Gold This Morning', quite superb:

"I have already digested the pretense and artifice of talking-head claims of the evacuation of Tokyo and QE 15 and we shall just have to stand aside and wait for the reality of our facts."

Read the whole thing here.

A Flash update...

...was sent to subscribers about ten minutes ago (i.e. just before 9am EST and a good half hour before the opening bell).

UPDATE: On a difficult day I'm going to shamelessly toot horn a bit. Some reactions to the Flash update from subscribers via reply mails (which are never solicited but always welcomed):

"What an excellent report!  Nice job."

(subscriber PB)

"GOOD"
(subscriber DS)

"Thanks. This is exactly what Iexpect from my investments’ Godfather....(in the Latino-Catholic sense, not the gringo sense)"  (subscriber JO)

"Very thoughtful. Thanks."
(subscriber ES)

"Great email.  Sometimes you need to be as much market psychologist as you need to be equity analyst."

(subscriber PB)

"Thanks for your opinion, appreciated as always."

 (subscriber JE)

"Thanks, agree and appreciated!"

 (subscriber HB)

 "Good alert."

(subscriber LB)

Away from those one line replies I've also had two or three longer mails that pick up on the  market craziness and panic noted in the Flash update sent this morning. One also said that I should reprint the Flash update on the blog here, which i may do later (but prefer that the people who kindly hand over 25 dollars of their hard-earned per month benefit first in line...it's only fair, after all), perhaps after the bell today to show you what goes on in the Weekly service. It's not just a Weekly letter, y'see. DYODD and take a word of advice from Douglas Adams:

Your humble scribe may be a market whuss, but on the other hand he's not hard-wired to panic, either.

Chart of the day is....

...the T-Bonds, near-term action today, March 15th, The Ides of March:

Caesar:
Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear.

Soothsayer:
Beware the ides of March.

Caesar:
What man is that?

Brutus:
A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.

Julius Caesar Act 1, scene 2, 15–19

Monday music

Artist: Thom Yorke
Track: Black Swan
Album: The Eraser
Year: 2006

Your humble scribe is naturally drawn to Yorke's music as he tries to digest Japan. And running a blog means not having to suffer alone.

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 35

The latest in our occasional series that tries its darndest to translate corporate babble into real English takes in this afternoon's NR from Western Uranium Corp. (WUC.v):

This is what they wrote:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 14, 2011) - Western Uranium Corporation (TSX VENTURE:WUC - News; "the Company" or "WUC") is pleased to announce that the Board of Directors of the Company has approved, subject to regulatory approval, a change of name of the company to Concordia Resource Corp.
The proposed change of name reflects the Company's strategy for expansion through acquisition and exploration globally, and through a shift in focus from uranium into a more diversified exploration and development company.

And this is what it means:

"Miss Jones?"
"Yes Mr. Flood?"
"That's the last freakin' straw! Get on to the lawyers and get that godforsaken word out of my corporate title NOW!"
"Right away, Mr. Flood."

DYODD, dudettes and dudes.

Goodbye, Luis Castañeda

Luis Castañeda was the Mayor of Lima and is now one of the candidates for President of Peru in the April 10th vote. He's also dead in the water as a serious candidate after the publication of this report from new Lima Mayor Susana Villarán on the way he spent Lima's cash during his time running the city.

The report is in Spanish, it's long and I can't be bothered to translate, but I don't think that matters so much because you'd need to know some Spanish to be interested anyway. Suffice to say it catalogues overspending on public works, a total lack of transparency in accounts and substandard constructions done during Castañeda's time. The whole thing reeks of just the type of slush money corruption that Peru is so famous for.

Castañeda has been fading in the polls recently (see yesterday's post) and this report and press conference going on right now is more than enough to put the final nail in his ambitions. A good thing too, because the last thing Peru needs is another shady moneygrabber at the top. DYODD.

Uranium: Another sort of meltdown

Here below is the section in IKN97, out yesterday, on Uranium and how we expected it to get hit today, but we also consider the medium-term and that doesn't look so bad.

Enter the wild card

Last week’s massive earthquake in Japan now presents one of those “now what happens?” events for world markets. Though not an ideal situation, part of analysis is to separate human distress factors from the cold, clinical world of money and markets and think about the financial consequences of moments such as this. Here, in a preliminary way, are a few thoughts on what might be in store for the metals end of business (the one junior miner portfolios care about):

1)     Uranium will sell off in the very-short-term and with it we’ll see selling of U producers and junior exploration plays. But let’s keep things real and note short, medium and long term scenarios (i.e. all with the potential for making or losing money) before we start running around waving our hands in the air. Short-term I expect U-exposed issues to drop, whether the exit be orderly or full-on dumpage, whether it be for knee-jerk or rational reasons. It matters not whether the sell-off is for rational or irrational reasons, from smart profit-taking of winning positions or from the we-are-all-gonna-die brigade. U will drop. Medium-term, my personal opinion it that it depends on which way China jumps. On that I call that China will keep on its aggressive U development on track, note how well the Japanese reactors have stood up to a 9.0mag quake on their doorstep, calm its own people (the only opinion that really matters to its Politburo) by noting the lack of tectonic plates where it’s planning to build its next generation of power suppliers, put a backbone in to the market and U gets back its mojo. Longer term is more of a world scale rather single country scale and the Fukushima situation gives energy policymakers another reason to look beyond uranium as mass scale generation of choice and towards alternative energy sources. This might be played up by sector interests in the coming weeks (solar companies may tell you to love solar now, geotherm likewise), so join any budding hype on those if you feel the need (repent at thy leisure afterwards...switchgrass, anyone?). So in other words, my only real call is for a short-term knee-jerk reaction to last week’s events and a wholesale dumpage of U stocks, which is a pretty pathetic analysis. As the timeline lengthens it’s tougher to make a proactive money call. My best guess is that uranium business might see some of the froth blown off but if bargains may appear at the quality end of the market they should be good trades for those with patience. Final point: As for the ‘sleeper facto’r of uranium stocks hardly moving last week even though talk had started to build about Japan’s nuclear power problems, it’s worth checking this screenshot below showing how the word “meltdown” didn’t trend much until after the Friday markets had closed. Then suddenly it was featured in between 1 and 3 of every 1000 tweets...and that’s a lot of tweeting, people. So get ready for your dose of irrational.

As for gold (and therefore the other PMs or pseudo-PMs that follow its lead), my current playbook...

IKN Back: The gold/PM and then base metals thoughts are being kept for those on the subbers' list, but suffice to say the first part of those playbooks seem to be happening as well. DYODD, dude.

Argentina 2011 elections: "A crucial triumph" for Cristina

Argentina's daily of record, La Nacion, is calling yesterday's win by Lucía Corpacci as just that and who am I to argue?

Argentina's politics is a veritable quagmire that's difficult to escape once you're sucked into it, but however hard it is to explain to outsiders, it's the most fun possible for South American politikwatchers. So to events and putting yesterday into a nutshell, what happened was that Corpacci won the vote to be the next Governor of the province of Catamarca (up Northwest on your map of Argentina), winning out from the incumbent Governor Eduardo Brizuela del Moral.

So, provincial election in way-out-that-waysville and what's the big deal Otto? The big deal is that Corpacci is a staunch Kirchnerite and this vote was seen by one and all as the first real test of Cristina's candidacy strength in the upcoming October 2011 Presidentials. Catamarca yesterday was a sort of New Hampshire Primary, if you like. Not the same because Cristina wasn't up on the ballot explicitly, but be in no doubt that Catamarca knew exactly who they were really voting for by making Corpacci their new Governor.

As thus, let Cristina's opposition tremble even more. She's already way out ahead in the polls and this weekend is yet another strong sign that re-election is the way of 2011. And she hasn't even officially thrown her hat into the ring yet, either.

Chart of the day is....

...natgas, monthly.

Japan's going to have to import a whole bunch of this stuff.

The IKN Weekly, out now

C'mon, admit it. You remember queuing all excited like at the store to get yours too, dontcha?

IKN97 has just been sent to subscribers. IMPORTANT: New Subber 'RJ', who joined up March 11th, your mailbox is full to the brim and won't even take a one line message, let alone an attachment. Please get in touch.

A Japanese reader writes in

These are the people that really matter, a ordinary guy out there who's concerned about how things are developing, but keeping it real and trying to get informed. Thanks Ryu, good of you to take time out and write in. Hopefully, others will benefit from your vigilance, too. Here's Ryu's mail:

Otto,

Hi, my name is Ryu from Japan. I've been reading your blog for quite a while now and really enjoying it. Anyway, I'm in the western part of Japan so I'm affected by the recent earthquake. But, the situation in the nuclear power plants in Fukushima is really concerning. So, I'm trying to get information as much as possible. Yeah, your blog posts are helpful, too. So, I've been looking through the web and would like to share some stuff I found.

Japan Visual Journalists Association's members have been in the town of Futaba,  where the Fukushima No.1 Power Plant located. The members are the well-known  photojournlists like Takashi Morizumi and Ryuichi Hirokawa. And, here's what  they found so far. Well, it's in Japanese, and what it says is that at 10:20am, March 13th, they  measured radiation at the front gate of the town hall with three kinds of  equipments (BEIGER COUNTR DZX2, VICTOREEN 209-SI, and MYRate PRD-10), and the  amount of radiation is well over the limits they can detect. The journalists  also went to the general hospital, and the result was the same.

Another good source of information is Citizens' Nuclear Information Center's  website. They had a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of  Japan, and you can watch the video. It's in English as well. Here's the direct  link to the video:

I'm just a guy who is very concerned with the situation and hoping it won't get  worse. I just wanted to share the info so maybe someone can find it useful. If  you need more precise translation for the articles, please let me know.

Regards,
Ryu

UPDATE: Ryu shares more. Thanks man:

You may have noticed already, but Citizens' Nuclear Information Center has its dedicated English site.
http://www.cnic.jp/english/

Also, a non-profit group called Green Action is blogging about the nuclear situation in English. They interviewed Japan Visual Journalists Association's journalists who went to near the Fukushima Daiichi. Unfortunately the interview video is in Japanese, but they transcribed and translated in English. It's better than my summary.

http://www.greenaction-japan.org/modules/entop2/

So, you can share the links on your blog if you'd like. Thanks for your attention, and I really appreciate you and people from all over the world expressing their support. I hope the situation will be like what the article, you posted the linked to, said.

Best,
Ryu

The smartest post on the Japan nuclear situation

Go read this now. Deep understanding and excellent explanation of what's going on at Fukushima et al, written in non-technical terms that anybody can understand. This is what the interwebnetpipes is made for. Simply outstanding.

Peru Presidential Polling: Getting close for second spot

The new poll from the PUCP polling company is out for the April Peru Presidential elections and things are getting interesting:

Toledo still leads, but he's seen a couple of points taken from his popularity rating. Second is the steady-as-she-goes numbers that Keiko Fujimori enjoys and now a clear third is the wilting campaign of Luis Castañeda. Then comes the fun, as both Ollanta Humala and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski have made up ground on the two battling it out for the second spot in the run-off, with both having found some momentum. In particular, Ollanta Humala has got to within four points of taking second spot. 

If we check how the PUCP poll has developed over the last five polls....

...the trends get clearer. Castañeda has faded, and Ollanta and PPK have found new favour. One thing we haven't seen so far is a bunch of negative attacks on Ollanta Humala, as up to now the top three have kept their insults largely for one another. With one month to go, there's a mighty scrap on now so expect to hear a lot more about Ollanta in these final weeks (and not all of it will be pretty).

I still say Toledo wins (as least worst, not as best), by the way. All data from here.