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Peru polls on the day before the election (UPDATED)

Despite their publication in Peru being against the law in the last week of an election, the pollsters have been out and about and telling foreign journalists about their results. These then tell the non-Peru world and..oh my stars! the 21st century world of the interwebnetpipes that news blackout sure works well.

So today pollster Datum has just called Ollanta Humala ahead with 50.8% of valid votes, with Keiko Fujimori on 49.2%, according to Reuters. The poll was taken on June 2nd and third, 5015 people gave their opinions and the margin of error is +/- 1.4%. 

Meanwhile, we're waiting for Peru's most respected pollster Ipsos/Apoyo to give its last poll at 6pm local time (7pm EST), about two hours from now. We hear it will include opinions up to 1pm today, so fresh as a daisy it will be. Your humble scribe will update this post when that report is available.

Update: Big news out of Ipsos/Apoyo this afternoon. Just a couple of minutes ago, Peru's most respected pollster called Ollanta Humala ahead with 51.9% of valid votes and Keiko Fujimori on 48.1%. The poll was taken today, June 4th, from 4000 people and has a margin of error of +/- 1.6%. This means that it's the first time for weeks that Ollanta Humala has shown a polling result that beats out the margin of error. Data from this Reuters news report.

Not the best planned robbery of all time

Here we go with a direct translation of this report from Argentina about an incident in the city of Rosario last Monday..

Rosario: Thieves Rob a Cybercafé But Are Detained Later Due To Leaving Facebook Page Open

Two young delinquents who had assaulted a cybercafé in the Santa Fe city of Rosario were arrested and taken into custody after one of them forgot to close their Facebook account, which led to their identification. One other remains at large.

The incident occurred in the early hours of Monday morning, when the three thieves entered the cybercafé located on the corner of Paraguay and Catamarca Avenues and, after using the computers there while waiting for all the other clients to leave, one of the three threatened the staff with a gun and took one cellular phone, 320 pesos (U$80) and an identity card, after which they fled.

A little later when police arrived  and, while making an inspection of the shop, found that one of the computers that had been used by the thieves had not been closed down and managed, via his Facebook account, to take down the details of his name, address and the address of the school he attends.

On Wednesday afternoon police officers went to the Comercio Nº2 JJ de Urquiza High School, located at Palestine Ave 1551, and arrest Federico Barbosa, 18, who had taken the ID card and cell phone of the staff member. Then one of the other youths who had participated in the theft was also arrested, whilst a third still remains at large.


The Friday OT: The Verve; Bittersweet Symphony

This is the Friday OT because:

1) I heard it in the cool café in town this morning and it sounded great after all these years (and the owners of that joint have seriously good taste in music, btw, tonces salu2 al Pepe y Claudia)

2) You try to walk down a street like this round here and you'll either get arrested or beaten up.

3) It's one of the best intros to any song I can think of right now.


Mixed Friday thoughts

Tweet of the day goes to Peruvian reporter Pedro Rivas Ugaz for this tweet that translates as, 
"Darling I had a nightmare. I dreamt that Keiko Fujimori and Ollanta Humala were the only candidates left in the second round run-off."
 My stars, it's nearly all over and they'll all STFU soon. Be thankful for small mercies.

Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) is getting the NOBS fundies treatment this weekend, subbers. We'll also be making a pretty specific recommendation on the stock that will depend on news flow in the next five to six days (not three days). Until then, no rush.

McDonald's added more jobs than the USA in May. Seriously. The only question left is to wonder how they're going to keep adding liquidity to the market without calling it QE3. I'm sure they'll find a way...that bank reserve ratio, for one thing.

Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v) is up this morning on this news, which goes to show yet again how stupid people are conned by crooks. Yeah you might think 20.35m of 2.27g/t gold is good, but you'd be harder pressed to like the reality, which is two skinny veins and a 16.8m remnant of 0.321 g/t Au. A stock strictly for Casey Research sheep.

In Peru, they're so desperate to stop Humala that they've wheeled out the crazy loophead Roger Noriega to say that thanks to his extra special secret intel that he can't talk about, he knows that Chávez has handed over U$12m to Ollanta in the last six months. Two Weeks Notice points out just how silly Roger really is.

The gold/jobs Friday guessing game

Guess when the US jobs number came out, simply by looking at this 5 min chart of gold futures:

If you guessed 07:30am, you guessed well.

Chart of the day is....

...the Presidential approval ratings for Chile's Sebastian Piñera, out yesterday.

 That question says, "Independently of your own political position, do you approve or disapprove of the way on which Sebastian Piñera is running his government?"
At 36% approval and 56% disapproval in the Adimark/GfK poll (one of Chile's more respected pollsters) it's easily the worst he's polled and worse than anything suffered by his predecessor, Michelle Bachelet, even in her dog days of the Santiago public transport system snafu (remember that?). According to the pollsters, Piñera's been hit by the HydroAysén project issue, the subsequent images of social disorder (and tear gas attacks used to quell them) as well as a lacklustre May 21st speech. Read the whole report by downloading it from this link right here.


Let's all laugh at the poor people...

...who buy Casey Research stock picks.

As Casey Research has an extremely selective memory when it comes to its track record, this chart is offered up  as evidence of the the snake oil salespeople's true abilities. We could have gone for Ram Power (RPG'to), that excellent Marin Scumball Katusa "top pick" of course, but let's keep it topical and go for the most recent Casey recos.

And while we're on the subject of Lobito those still left in his other recent underperforming dogpick, Gold Bullion Development Corp (GBB.v), would be wise to exit before the Vancouver junior mining conference and bunfest this weekend. Just sayin'.

UPDATE: And it just gets better. Today Lobito has called "buy second tranche" on EAS.v and notes that although the recent 43-101 resource was a total PoS and he's in the hole to the tune of 30% he can only "see an opportunity".  So pathetic it's almost funny, now all we need to watch is the initial price switcheroo that Casey Research constantly uses to scam its clients. Will they dare to shift the "initial price" to today's $3.57 in future episodes? Watch this space.....

The Ipsos/Apoyo survey PDF: Download it here

On this link is the PDF from Ipsos/Apoyo, published this morning, that puts Keiko Fujimori in a slight lead against Ollanta Humala for the Sunday June 5th Presidential run-off election in Peru. It's worth underscoring that Ipsos/Apoyo is generally considered the most reliable pollster in Peru and has a decent track record of prediction.

Here again is the paste of page 1 that gives an overview of contents (and yeah, it's in Spanish):

La principal consecuencia del debate presidencial habría sido una mayor definición de los electores a favor de ambos candidatos y una disminución de la propensión a votar en blanco o viciado.
��Con respecto al simulacro anterior:
��Keiko Fujimori ha incrementado su intención de voto de 43,5 a 45,8% gracias su recuperación en Lima y a un avance en el norte.
��Ollanta Humala ha incrementado su intención de voto de 42,6 a 43,9% debido a un crecimiento en el oriente.
��El voto en blanco y viciado ha disminuido de 13,9 a 10,3%
��En términos de votos válidos, Keiko Fujimori tiene ahora 51,1 y Ollanta Humala 48,9%. La ligera ventaja de la candidata de Fuerza 2011 estátodavía dentro del empate estadístico, considerando el margen de error de esta medición que es de +1,8 puntos.
��Esta medición no incluye la intención de voto de los peruanos que residen en el extranjero. Se estima que este electorado podría añadirla entre 0.5 y 1% de votación a Fujimori. Tampoco mide con precisión la intención de voto de los lugares más alejados de la sierra y selva rurales, que podrían ser algo más favorables a Humala.
��Cabe recordar que este encuesta no es una predicción. En el simulacro, los electores indecisos (alrededor del 10%) han expresado una intención de voto que podría cambiar el día de las elecciones.

New Peru Poll: Keiko Fujimori 51%, Ollanta Humala 49% according to Ipsos/Apoyo

This just off the wires (again as yesterday there's no link yet, this is pasted from the Reuters subscription service..there will be links available later for sure). The difference with this poll is that it's done by Ipsos/Apoyo, generally regarded as the most trustworthy in Peru.

It's going to be very close, but the Lima stock market is rallying hard on this news all the same. Here's the paste-out:

For Related News, Double Click on one of these codes:[C] [D] [E] [M] [O] [T] [U] [MTL] [GRO] [SOF] [OIL] [MNI] [NAT] [ELN] [NAW] [G] [PE] [LATAM] [EMRG] [POL] [VOTE] [PRO] [GEN] [PIL] [CTXT] [MIN] [MET] [GVD] [DBT] [FRX] [NSS] [CMPNY] [LEN] [RTRS]

Update: Here's the summary page of the Ipsos/Apoyo survey. It's in Spanish but it's all there. Basically voter intention is now 45.8% Keiko vs 43.9% Ollanta, with spoiled ballots down to 10.3%. The "valid votes" number is 51.1% Keiko vs 48.9% Ollanta. Ipsos/Apoyo also notes that Keiko can enjoy a boost of between 0.5% to 1% from Peruvians living abroad.

There were 3000 people interviewed for this poll, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8%
La principal consecuencia del debate presidencial habría sido una mayor definición de los electores a favor de ambos candidatos y una disminución de la propensión a votar en blanco o viciado.
��Con respecto al simulacro anterior:
��Keiko Fujimori ha incrementado su intención de voto de 43,5 a 45,8% gracias su recuperación en Lima y a un avance en el norte.
��Ollanta Humala ha incrementado su intención de voto de 42,6 a 43,9% debido a un crecimiento en el oriente.
��El voto en blanco y viciado ha disminuido de 13,9 a 10,3%
��En términos de votos válidos, Keiko Fujimori tiene ahora 51,1 y Ollanta Humala 48,9%. La ligera ventaja de la candidata de Fuerza 2011 estátodavía dentro del empate estadístico, considerando el margen de error de esta medición que es de +1,8 puntos.
��Esta medición no incluye la intención de voto de los peruanos que residen en el extranjero. Se estima que este electorado podría añadirla entre 0.5 y 1% de votación a Fujimori. Tampoco mide con precisión la intención de voto de los lugares más alejados de la sierra y selva rurales, que podrían ser algo más favorables a Humala.
��Cabe recordar que este encuesta no es una predicción. En el simulacro, los electores indecisos (alrededor del 10%) han expresado una intención de voto que podría cambiar el día de las elecciones.

UPDATE 2: Download your copy of the Ipsos/Apoyo PDF from here

Update 3: And the fun just keeps on coming. We now have pollster CPI calling Humala ahead by 50.5% to 49.5% of valid votes, with a sample of 2200 people and a margin of error of +/-1.8%. 


Oh my stars! What a horrible feeling

I actually agree with Andres Oppenheimer...ugh, icky feeling of spiders crawling crawling all over me and hot'n'cold flushes and everything. Here's how LatAm's normally most annoying columnist finishes his admittedly good piece on the Peru election:

My opinion: I know I’m going to disappoint many of you by saying this, but I’m skeptical about both candidates’ claims that they will respect Peru’s democratic institutions. I feel like Fernando de Szyslo, Peru’s best-known living artist and one of Mario Vargas Llosa’s best friends, who said in an interview with the daily El Comercio: “I’m sorry, but I can’t vote for any of them.”
I guess that many Peruvians feel the same way, and will vote exclusively on pocketbook issues. The poorest of the poor will vote for Humala, and the emerging middle classes for Fujimori.
On Sunday, we will find out whether, after two decades of growth in which poverty rates dropped from 54 percent to 31 percent of the population, Peru has already become a middle-class country, or whether a majority of Peruvians feel they have been bypassed by their country’s prosperity.

Chart of the day is....

...a reader request. It's the amount of money that Google Adsense adverts make for this blog per month.

For what it's worth, 2009 averaged out at U$153 and bits, per month 2010 at $203 and bits per month. As for that big drop this year, that's explained by the couple of months I decided not to run the Adsense ads here and they were only on the RSS and email digest feeds during that time. In the end $200 a month isn't enormous money but it does cover household bills so it does come in useful. But the main reason I like Adsense and the reason I've gone back to using the ads here is that it helps the blog pay for itself and makes it useful in its own right. That's just me and my warped sense of values, though.

So now that's all out the way, anything else you'd like to know while we're at it? My shoe size, perhaps?*

*Good morning Vancouver :-)


A tornado crosses the Connecticut River at Springfield, Mass

Totally OT, totally impressive.

Eurasia on Peru's election

Political risk people Eurasia are calling it all the following way. FWIW (not much) I don't agree with their call (and notably they've been calling it for Ollanta for weeks now, when most people were sticking with "too close to call") but WTFDIK and they could be right. Here's the mailer sent out to its private clients that was published today just before 1pm EST:

The latest polls suggest the 5 June second round runoff between nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala and center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori will be very tight. However, we still believe Humala holds a slight edge and is thus favored to win the presidency. While Fujimori is ahead in most polls, her lead has narrowed, which suggests negative campaign could be finally hurting her. In addition, Humala looks likely to win a larger share of undecided voters, who are mostly poor and therefore tend to be less concerned about the risks commonly associated with Humala. Despite the tight race, the risk of serious post-election political instability is low, even though a slow counting of votes could generate significant noise in the weeks following the election.
Most of the polls released over the weekend show center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori slightly ahead of nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala, but her lead has narrowed from last week. The latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll shows support for Fujimori at 41% (down from 43% in the previous poll) and support for Humala stable at 39%. In an Ipsos/Apoyo vote simulation, Fujimori had 50.5% of valid votes (down from 51.4% last week) and Humala 49.5% (up from 48.6%). A Datum vote simulation shows Fujimori with an almost five-point lead (52.3% vs 47.7%), but Fujimori's lead has narrowed slightly from previous polls. Another vote simulation conducted by the Catholic University of Lima (PUCP) shows the two candidates practically tied; Fujimori has 44.2% support and Humala has 43.7% (50.3% vs 49.75 in terms of valid votes). And an Imasen vote simulation shows Humala leading 50.8% versus 49.2%. The average of these polls (expressed in valid votes) shows Fujimori leading 50.6% versus 49.4%. Sunday May 29 was the last day pollsters could release their results before the 5 June run-off, although polls may be leaked later this week.

These results suggest the race will be very tight, but we remain of the view that Humala has an edge. Fujimori's narrower lead in polls suggests that negative associations related to her father's track record for corruption and human right violations, which have intensified in the past few weeks, could be hurting her bid. The increase in Fujimori's rejection rate over the course of May is further evidence that that this is occurring. In Ipsos/Apoyo's 9 May poll, Fujimori's rejection rate stood at 34%; it has increased is subsequent polls and reached 39% in the 29 May poll. In the meantime, Humala's rejection rate has fluctuated around 40%. Earlier in the month, his rate was five points higher than Fujimori's, but the difference has narrowed to just one point - the 29 May Ipsos/Apoyo poll shows Humala's rejection rate at 40%. The latest polls did not capture the impact on voters of last Sunday's televised debate. The impact will most likely be very limited, but if anything the debate will probably help Humala at the margin. He was able to expose clearly the negative aspects of Fujimori's father government and tie her to his administration. While these issues constitute a significant liability for Fujimori, they haven't received much media attention yet. From the perspective of undecided voters, this is what probably stood out in the debate.

Such campaign dynamics will help Humala gain a higher share of support from undecided voters, whose profile suggests many will lean towards Humala. Undecided voters are concentrated among poor, who tend to be less concerned about the risks commonly associated with Humala (that he will be a radical) and more sensitive to accusations of corruption. According to the latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll, the highest rate of undecided voters (9%) is in the "D" class which represents about a third of the electorate. Rates are just slightly lower in the other socioeconomic classes, but this indicates that poor voters constitute a majority of undecided voters. According to the PUCP poll, which we view as credible, the rates of undecided voters are comparatively higher among the poor. There are 8% of undecided voters in the "D" and "E" social classes, while only 4% of voters in the "C" class and 5% in the "A" and "B" classes, respectively, remain undecided. Additionally, the number of undecided voters could be higher that polls suggest. A poll conducted after the 2006 shows that 15% of voters chose their candidate on Election Day. With undecided voters more likely to lean towards Humala, this could tilt the election in his favor.

Despite the tight race, the risk of instability stemming from potential questioning of the electoral result is probably low. The more worrisome scenario here is one in which Humala loses by a very narrow margin. Some of his advisors expressed concern about the risk of fraud and could therefore raise doubts about the result. But Peru's electoral authorities are fairly independent, so the risk of widespread fraud that could justify serious questioning of the results looks low. In addition, Humala's willingness to question the results probably won't be strong. He has made the strategic decision to move closer to the center of the political spectrum, so serious questioning of the result could undermine the credibility of his move and thus his chances of winning future elections. And if he does decide to question the results, his ability to conduct nation-wide protests that paralyses large cities will be limited given that his supporters are concentrated in rural areas and probably lack the party structure and cohesion to sustain widespread protests. Fujimori has affirmed emphatically that she will accept the result. Despite the low risk of serious questioning, a slow counting of votes and/or potential requests of recounting could generate significant noise and doubts about the final result during the weeks that will follow the vote.


Erasto Almeida
Analyst, Latin America

latest Peru polling news off the wires: Technical dead heat June 1st, according to Datum

Polls are still being taken in Peru, but due to the laws there they're not allowed to be published. This is a paste off the Reuters wire service just a few minutes ago (so no link, sorry, this isn't the Reuters internet service but the paying client wire). 
11:26 01Jun11 RTRS-Datum poll shows tie in Peru race - source 
(Note: Election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior to June 5 voting)   
LIMA, June 1 (Reuters) - Peru's presidential race has tightented to a "technical tie" with a slight advantage for right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori, a source briefed on a survey by Datum said on Wednesday.  Datum's previous poll released on Sunday said Fujimori had a lead of 4.6 points over left-wing Ollanta Humala in a mock vote it organized, greater than the margin of error.  Polls by other survey firms on Sunday had shown a technical tie between the candidates.

Update: We got a link for that Reuters story on the open net now. Here it is (Spanish language). Meanwhile, a source that's proven pretty accurate in previous times tells your author that the Datum numbers, due out tomorrow, are 50.3% Keiko and 49.7% Ollanta.(scrap that, apparently not the right numbers now...working on it. folks).

Today's junior mining company share price future predictive market quiz question

Considering the effect that stocks such as Great Panther ( (GPL) or First Majestic ( (AG) saw when they got listed, what do you think is going to happen to the share price of Fortuna Silver ( when it announces it's getting listed on the New York Stock Exchange?

I'm expected that announcement soon, by the way.

Yeah really. And yes, I'm long FVI (if you don't know that, you're new round here and so "welcome!").

keiko win = up, ollanta win = down...faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieures....or not

Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.
Hamlet, act 3 Scene 1, LL 82-87

Or Dirty Harry if you like: Feeling lucky, punk?

But what we can say is that ignorance in Peru is evident at every turn. For example, reports of investors this morning asking whether it's true that Peru has suspended all mining concessions. People, if that's the level of your worries, do yourself a favour and leave South America well alone, because as day follows night a dumbass will always be parted from their wedge.

Chart of the day is...

...a ten day comparative between Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v), Minera Andes ( and Candente Copper (

Because I may still feel grotty, but there's enough juice in tanks to follow the trades. DYODD.


Otto Rock is unwell

I have a cold, which is hardly life-threatening but seriously takes the edge off the desire to write. Back with you all anon.

Quote of the day.... awarded to Colombia's Minister of Mining, Carlos Rodado Noriega, who had this to say about the inflience of narcotraffickers in gold mining sector of Colombia:

"We are certain that the gold business is used in an illegal way to launder assets."

A Flash update...

..went out to subscribers just before the bell this morning. Consider this post belt'n'braces, guys.

Why I think Keiko Fujimori will win the Peru election

Before going any further and to stop my mailbox getting filled up with mails in Spanish that cast allusions on the marital status of my parents at the moment of my conception, I'm not a fan of Keiko and feel no sympathy towards her. Neither am I a fan of Ollanta Humala. In my opinion neither candidate left in the running for the Presidency of Peru will make a good President or be good for their country. Basically, I have no dog in this race. So with that said, why do I think she wins?

1) A high proportion of the undecided votes are in the higher socioeconomic groups. This has been noted by all the polling companies in their recent surveys.

2) In other words, due to the close numbers that the two candidates are polling and the significant percentage of undecideds still out there, those are the people that are left to decide who wins. It's commonly called "the Lima vote" in Peru and the basic idea all through round two has been one of whoever wins Lima, wins the job.

3) Every time Ollanta Humala has made progress in the polls, the Lima Stock Market has suffered. True yesterday, with its 5.17% drop, after the weekend polls showed Humala closing the gap between himself and Keiko Fujimori to within the margin of error on most polls and even holding a slight lead in one of them.

4) The live TV debate was generally viewed as a tie by observers in Peru (bar the rabid supporters on either side of the fight).

5) In the end the middle class in Peru is much like any other middle class around the world. They're obsessed by money and either getting rich or staying rich.

6) It won't have escaped their attention that, so far at least, Humala up = stock market down, their all-important pension fund down, Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) currency down. Neither would it have escaped their attention that Keiko up = indicators positive.

7) For many of these middle class, the idea of announcing that they will vote for another Fujimori is too embarrassing to be made public, but they plan to do it anyway in the privacy of the voting booth. This is the so-called "hidden vote" factor.

8) So all in all, if it's true that the higher socioeconomic levels in Peru have the deciding vote in this election, Keiko Fujimori is in a strong position. This also explains why La Republica this morning, the only serious newspaper in Peru that supports the Humala campaign, is trying to convince its public that investors are calm and relaxed about the Humala manifesto when all evidence points to this as being a total crock.

In other words I think Keiko wins this election because, when push comes to shove, human beings are greedy and self-serving. And money talks, bullshit walks. Sad but true. DYODD.

Charts of the day are....

...the Argentina Peso versus the US Dollar, 12 months...

...and the Brazilian Real versus the US Dollars, 12 months....

After returning from a State visit Charles De Gaulle once famously said about Brazil that, "Ce n'est pas un pais serieux". Just goes to show how times change...or how perhaps he should have visited Buenos Aires on the same trip and got a bit of context.


So what does the Peru stock market think of the latest round of opinion polls?

It thinks this:

Down 4.68% in the first three hours of the week, all stocks taking a bath.

A better way of scaring the middle class into voting for Keiko is difficult to imagine. Money talks, BS walks, part 14,392 of a continuting series. Data from here

How good is Tom Tomorrow?

This good.

Get the full page version right here.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Jeesh Lobito, is that all you got these days?

Wow, looks like you're losing your touch, dude. Time was when people actually listened to you....


Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and protests in Puno: latest

The latest from Puno is that the strike/protest/roadblocks have been suspended by the local protesters in the region, in the words of this report out a couple of hours ago "at least until after the second round Presidential election vote", which is this Sunday June 5th.

The decision to suspend the protest activities was taken this morning, Monday May 30th, by the activists. Apparently there are a couple of roadblocks left in place, but those are expected to be lifted in the next few hours as well.

UPDATE: Interestingly, that report linked above seems to have been pulled by the website. Following the Google feed, there are now conflicting reports on whether the protests will go ahead or whether they'll be suspended today. But either way, BCM.v at Santa Ana isn't going to have a happy time of it. That was explained yesterday in IKN108.

Chart of the day is....

...the US Dollar since 2002.

Strong dollar policy's working, I see.

Man, I just have no idea whatsoever why commodities have been rising in the last decade.

To know more about Crocodile Gold's ( Mario property, optioned to Fortuna Silver ( today...

...go here for the overview of the 43-101 technical report on the property that was published in 2007

But in summary it's big, under-explored and has already returned very decent drill numbers for zinc, lead and silver. Also, if you check out the MEM resume on environmental matters for the Mario property, you'll find out more about its exact location and see that the locals are welcoming of new mining activity in the area. Overall, it reminds me a lot of Caylloma


Two charts from IKN108

Just to give you an idea of how important tonight's live TV debate between Ollanta and Keiko is for the presidential election in Peru, with the big vote next Sunday June 5th now just days away:

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN108 has just been sent to subscribers. Just sayin'