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Spooky Leo Messi Witching Hour Type Video Thingy

Lionel Messi must be getting into the Halloween spirit. On scoring his first goal versus Mallorca (from the penalty spot) tonight, the dude turned towards a nearby camera and did this:

He then went on to score three goals in the match, as seen here.

Anyway, good excuse to feature Barça on the blog now complete, oh yes indeedy you have the nice weekend

B2Gold ( My kind of gold mining company

It's been raining hard in Nicaragua recently, with severe flooding that's affected hundreds of thousands of people. So when I read this note today, I remembered just why B2Gold ( is the type of mining company I like to be involved with (as though not currently long the stock, I've been a happy shareholder on several occasions).

Executives of the Canadian mining company B2Gold handed over a donation of $750,000 in cash in answer to the call for aid made by President Daniel Ortega due to the emergency caused by the intense rains in the last few weeks.

Dale Craig, country manager of B2Gold Nicaragua, handed over the money to Guillermo González, Executive Secretary of the National System for the Prevention, Mitigation and Disaster Attention (Sinapred) and explained that this help is destined to alleviate the near-term needs of the affected population.

"We respond to this call with our best wishes that this donation can contribute to the government's efforts through Sinapred, to respond immediately and effectively to the population faced with the intense rainfalls that still persist in various zones in Nicaragua", said Craig.

B2Gold is a producing gold miner with its HQ in Vancouver. As well as the La Libertad mines located in the municipality of the same name in the department of Chontales and the El Limón mine in Malpaisillo, it has other exploration activities in other zones of Nicaragua as well as in Colombia, Costa Rica and Uruguay.

Check out the original note here, including nice photo of the cheque handover. And a big round of applause to, doing the right thing.

What Kind of Buddhist was Steve Jobs, Really?

By far the most interesting article written this year on Steve Jobs is right here, on this link. It matters not whether you agree in whole, in part or not at all, either. Great writing makes you think. Or maybe that's makes you think. Or perhaps it's makes you think.

Hell, great note whatever. Read "What kind of Buddhist was Steve Jobs, really?". You'll be glad you did.

UPDATE: Yes I know I should stop thinking.

President Rafael Correa of Ecuador has the highest approval rating of any President in The Americas

As seen here from independent beancounters Mitofsky, it's at 75%. And this is why:

The funniest thing is seeing how the episode is twisted by English language press, however.


The Friday OT: Pulp; Common People

Back in the 90s I had to sit through a lot of Britpop because friends would insist that run-of-mill musicians were great new talents. They weren't, but Pulp stood out from the rest of the genre because Jarvis Cocker wrote great lyrics.

But in this song the music lives right up to his high wordsmith standards and as such sits right at the top of the pile. Gotta love the way it slowly builds to the end crescendo. Gotta adore the video.

Gotta enjoy Pulp.

Nobody Expects the Spanish Christian Music Inquisition

Neca eos omnes. Deus suos agnoscet
 Nothing much changes over the years...

Today's preferred news story down this neck of the woods comes from the city of Piura in Peru via El Comercio:

Piura: Violence Due to Postponement of Christian Music Concert

The crowd at the concert in the Miguel Grau stadium broke chairs and gathered at the hotel where the Christian singer was staying to protest.

Friday October 28th, 01:58am

The crowd at the concert of Christian musician Jesús Adriám Romero caused acts of violence due to the postponement of the event at the Miguel Grau stadium in Piura.

Some concert-goers smashed chairs and others protested at the hotel where the artist was staying. The exact reasons why the concert was postponed are still not understood, according to RPP News.

Some accounts state that the artist refused to participate due to sound quality problems. However, others state that he didn't want to go ahead with the concert because not enough tickets had been sold. Meanwhile, the singers representative Arón Pérez said that the concert had been postponed until May next year for security reasons.

CIBC on silver today

Here's the link to the report by Brian Quast and team. Here's the front page bullet points ripped from the report:
  • Our analysis of the silver space leads us to reduce our cash flow multiples; our 2011 silver price also falls to $37.50/oz. from $40/oz. The upshot of this is that we are downgrading PAAS and MFL to SP from SO and FR to SU from SP, while upgrading THO to SO from SP, as of October 27.
  • Cash flow increases in the space have not kept pace with silver price movements, despite being leveraged to the silver price. We believe smelters, foreign exchange, and input costs do not adequately explain the lack of cash flow growth.
  • While the performance of the silver producers has been generally abysmal, the group now trades at extremely discounted valuations and is overdue to re-rate. At spot prices, the group trades at 7x 2013E CFPS, despite an average reserve life of 15 years.
  • Our top picks in the silver space are FVI and SSRI, even though we recognize that there are strong headwinds for SSRI in the next six months. Our top pick in the gold space remains CGA, as its mill is about to return to full steam.

In which your humble scribe learns some basic mathematical principles such as addition

In this post from Weds 26th, your author spoke of how Minefinders had seen about 1.7m ounces of gold "disappear" from its resource/reserve count at Dolores. So yesterday reader "T" (we'll call him) mails in to note, in the nicest possible way because T is a nice person, that your humble scribe is a dumbass on math. Part of the mail exchange included this screenshot that shows your author's math (total 4.44m on the left) versus the reality (on the right).

Yes indeed, somehow or another I managed to miss on adding 800,000 ounces to my total, so in fact MFN at Dolores doesn't have 1.7m oz Au disappeared, but 900,000 oz....not so bad, right?

The exchange with T went on to discuss the relative merits of MFN the company, with both grade and the silver resource featured (T is a smart dude, by the way). But here I'd like to go on a different track and note the error in my calcs was eventually found; i'd trusted the auto-addition feature on Excel without noting a bad input line. In the end it's not a biggie, but it is a cheap-priced, salutary reminder to your humble scribe to check his freakin' work on occasion and not just rush to publish.

IKN thanks T for the feedback and bows deeply to the gods of math. Ain't no arguing with the numbers.

Chart of the day is...

...copper stocks and ratio of cancelled warrants (i.e. the copper that's actually leaving warehouses to go to end users) as featured in this most excellent article by Andy Home of Reuters.

Said it before and it gets said again here: There's no better voice in the copper field than Andy Home and if you care about Cu he's quite simply required reading.

UPDATE: He also nails zinc , read this article today.


Memo for copper bears

That clear enough?

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 47

Here we go again, the series that shows NRs written in junior mining English and then converts them into normal English. Today we got some Golden Tag (GOG.v)

This is what they wrote:

Press Release Source: Golden Tag Resources Ltd. On Thursday October 27, 2011, 9:57 am EDT
MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - Oct. 27, 2011) - Golden Tag Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:GOG - News; "Golden Tag") owning a 50% interest in the San Diego Property, Velardena, Durango State, Mexico wishes to provide an update on the Phase 5 Program of Exploration. The San Diego project is a joint-venture with Golden Minerals Company headquartered in Golden, Colorado who owns the remaining 50% interest in the property.
The joint venture Phase 5 program commenced at the end of March 2011 (GOG News Release: February 22, 2011) and to date over 10,200 metres of diamond drilling in 12 drill holes have been completed. One remaining deep hole, SD-11-46, is still in progress. The Phase 5 program since commencement has been managed by an independent Consulting Group as Operator, reporting to the JV Management Committee. Since July over 4,500 analytical results on samples, standards and blanks have been received from the laboratory with a further 1,000 samples currently at the laboratory for analysis. Additional samples will be sent for analysis as hole SD-11-46 is being completed. Core logging and required QAQC on laboratory results that have been received, have not yet been fully completed. On September 29th the Consulting Group terminated work on the property. The JV partners have re-staffed the program, which is now managed on the ground by Ms Kateri Marchand P.Geo, who headed the previous four phases of work on the property. Core is being reviewed and logged. Additional infill sampling is also being completed.
Eight holes or almost 85% of the drilling has occurred in the south property area to evaluate and test for indications of skarn related mineralization as encountered in the last phase 4 program in 2008. These holes cross the southern target area over a vertical height of up to 600 metres with some holes at 300 to 900 m below the valley floor elevation. Drilling has confirmed extension of the San Jose and Trovador veins to the depth of phase 5 drilling. These veins dip steeply north and lay respectively 100 and 200 m south of the sub-vertical Montanez vein. These two veins sequentially converge with, and intersect the Montanez Vein and the trend of the Central Corridor at depth. Although the geology of the property at depth is complex, it appears at this stage that it hosts a large hydrothermal system extending at depth over a distance of at least a kilometer (and open) that contains broad zones of Ag-Pb-Zn stringers, veins and carbonate-replacement type mineralization. With several styles of mineralization occurring in the new South Area, it is essential that sampling is thorough and representative and that assay results are carefully evaluated and interpreted in their proper context. Initial results from the program are now planned to be released in the next two to three weeks.

And this is what it means:

ECU Silver really were the worst freakin' idiot asshats that you could possible imagine as a JV partner.


Handy earnings season tip for mining company NRs

With 3q11 results now starting to arrive from those junior mining companies that close their quarters end September (i.e. most of them), IKN offers up this handy hint on the news releases that will accompany the numbers. Ready? Here it comes....
If you have to read down to paragraph eight of a NR before you find out the net earnings number, the company had a crap quarter

And as an example of that, check out Oceanagold's ( ( earnings release on this link. What you'll read is record EBITDA and how revenues were better than this or that other quarter. What you'll have more trouble noticing is how

1) Gold production continues to drop

2) Cash costs are zooming higher

So do yourself a favour and DYODD, dude. Yeah?

Yesterday's Flash update

When this below went out, yesterday afternoon, the stock in question (name withheld) was trading at 75c. It closed at 90c.

Now this morning we have several companies with Argentina exposure coming out and saying that the move is no biggie for them (Extorre, Crown Point, Orocobre are just three with news releases before the bell today).

Just sayin'


Good afternoon, just gone 1:30pm local time with less than 90 minutes of the market session remaining.

News today from Argentina is that the government has changed the rules for O&G and mining companies and now requires companies in both sectors to repatriate 100% of revenues from exports (previously, O&G was 30%, mining was 0% repatriation obligation). Thoughts:

  • Yes it's somewhat negative for the mining sector, but it's not as big a deal as is being made out by the headline-screamers (the Bloomberg reporting on this event (link) has been particularly shock-horror and poor quality, as is the norm for Bloomberg reporters in South America who are duty bound to "make market moving news" else face dismissal)
  • The move is more to ensure dollars are deposited inside the Argentine system (therefore propping up the Peso) than anything else. The country is NOT stopping companies from transferring or remitting cash once the money is deposited inside Argentina, though it does mean remittances will be larger and face higher taxes.
  • Note that sectors such as agro have managed to grow, expand and make excellent profits for its players in Argentina (see BG to begin with) under the same rules now being applied to the miners.
  • Overall, the panic selling in Argentine exposed junior mining companies today has been way overdone and buying opportunities are now available.

We at The IKN Weekly own just one company with Argentina exposure at present, (company name and ticker removed) It's a bit of a risk, because we're still waiting on the 43-101 report that's perhaps three weeks overdue now and the report on the metallurgy in particular will be vital for the wellbeing of the project, but I'm going to add to the position at the current discounted prices today. Despite this risk, reward outweighs in the equation quite easily as I expect Argentina mining shares to bounce back once the headless chicken brigade have done with their blind selling.

Bottom line: The Argentina news today isn't great but it's not a project killer either. The selling is way overdone in XXXXXX (and other Argentina names) and I'm adding to my position and taking advantage of this opportunity to average down. The position still won't be very large after this addition and I'm not going to buy enormous quantities today....just enough to take advantage of the low price and bring down the cost average.

Chart of the day is...

...crude oil, monthlies:

xLooks remarkably like the trend is still your friend, no?


Life sentence

Judgment was passed just a few minutes ago and was greeted by loud applause from the crowd packed inside the court. Acosta, Astiz and Cavallo (and others) will rot in jail until they die. Good.

News here

A Flash update...

...was sent to subscribers a few minutes ago, just after 2:30pm New York time.

Minefinders (MFN) (; "Scuse me, I seem to have mislaid one point seven million ounces of haven't seen them lying around anywhere, have you?"

Minefinders (MFN) ( filed its new 43-101 resource report for the company's flagship Dolores property yesterday (get your copy here) and after fiddling around with the numbers a while, your humble scribe put together the following two tables. The first one comes from the previous 43-101 and you'll note
  • the cut-off is 0.3 g/t
  • grades are much higher
  • contained gold is 6.34m oz once you tot up all categories of reserves and resources

But then we move to the second table, which is the compilation of the gold ounces from the most recent report and we have:
  • a lower cut-off of 0.2 g/t (which you'd normally expect to improve the ounce count)
  • grades significantly lower
  • contained gold down by 1.9m oz to 4.44m oz
Since the time of the 2008 43-101 MFN has mined out around 140,000 oz gold, but even when we take recovery rates into account it means that around 1.7m oz of gold has somehow disappeared from the Dolores rock. Reminds me of the old joke:

Mining Manager: "How big is the resource?"
Independent 43-101 compiler: "How big do you want it to be?"

dyodd, dude

Metanor (MTO.v) and Jay Taylor: It's deja vu all over again

MTO share price, 9th April 2008 to date

Your humble scribe couldn't help but consider the possibility that, unbeknown to himself, somebody might have slipped him an LSD tab back in his (somewhat mis-spent) youth and was suffering one of those flashback thingies. Yesterday, October 25th 2011, according to this link newsletterist Jay Taylor initiated*coverage with a buy recommendation on überdog gold joke stock Metanor Resources (MTO.v). In his "initiating buy" reco call, Jay Taylor highlighted that:
  • The company's Bachelor Lake property would enter into production by mid-2012.
  • Production would be 60,000oz gold per year at a cash cost of $464/oz
  • Once pre-sold ounces were backed out and a gold price assumed, Taylor said MTO.v would be good for 27c/year in cash flows, which compares very favourably to its current PPS of 36c (last night's close)
  • Other good things 
  • That the stock should offer a double or triple to its current share price

 All this was very bizarre for your humble scribe, cursed as he is with a memory. And it only took a tad of Googlerating before this article showed up, dated April 9th 2008 (yeah, two thousand and eight) which featured:
  • A newsletter writer named Jay Taylor pumping a stock called Metanor Resources (MTO.v)
  • That in 2009 (yeah, two thousand and nine) MTO.v would enter into production
  • Production would be 45,000oz gold per year at a cash cost of $310/oz
  • MTO was a low-risk stock, as it was already in production and a growth story to boot
  • Other good things
  • And of course Taylor's prediction that MTO.v would double or even quadruple its share price

Now isn't that an amazing coincidence? It kind of makes you wonder shy Jay Taylor is so keen on pumping this dog of a stock that's lost a mere 65% since that 2008 reco. Well, it does me at least, cos I'm like that.

dyodd, dude


Chart of the day is...

...the US  Dollar index, daily candles:

Want some deep, incisive commentary? Ok. It got to 80.


Music for a Tuesday

This track's been going round my head all morning and as it totally rocks, we share.

My stars I adore how it closes (minute 3:00 onwards). Please play at volume setting eleven or not at all.

International Currency Reserves of LatAm Nations per Capita

Wonk out!
  • Countries that have lots of currency reserves are stronger, macroeconomically speaking. Check
  • LatAm countries have been squirrelling money away for the last decade, thanks mainly to high commods prices. Check
  • LatAm economies are generally thought to be in good shape because of their macro monetary policies. Check

But on being inspired by this article at AmerciaEconomia this morning that tells how Mexico's International Currency Reserves hit a new all time record this week (U$138.901Bn), your humble scribe got to wondering just which countries in LatAm, (well to be honest South America plus Mexico, I didn't check on the CenAms) have the most reserves per head of population, because it's one thing saying that Brazil has the most cash stored away but it's another thing to know how far that cash would stretch in a pinch. So on checking out all the relevant Central Bank websites (most of which have the intl reserve number dated to the week) and then the good old handy-dandy CIA World Factbook for the latest population estimates (most good to July 2011, so that works), here's the chart and the table that got done Chez Otto:

So it turns out that Uruguay is in the best shape of all on this metric, followed by Chile, Brazil and Peru. Then come five countries all in reasonably good shape, all having over U$1000 per capita in reserves. Paraguay is a bit marginal but OK I suppose, with the only weak link in the whole region being Ecuador.

Here's the table that generated the above chart.

Your daily dose of WorldGonnaEndWeAllGonnaDieMayanRaptureSecondComingBuyGoldAndGunsAndBigBagsOfRice stuff

This report of the Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia is brought to you by your caring and loving IKN to make sure the bejeepers get scared out of you at least once this week. Here are a couple of excerpts:

It's a mystery they've yet to solve.

Uturuncu is a nearly 20,000-foot-high (6,000 meters) volcano in southwest Bolivia. Scientists recently discovered the volcano is inflating with astonishing speed.

Uturuncu is surrounded by one of the most dense concentrations of supervolcanoes on the planet, all of which fell silent some 1 million years ago.

Supervolcanoes get their name because they erupt with such power that they typically spew out 1,000 times more material, in sheer volume, than a volcano like Mount St. Helens. Modern human civilization has never witnessed such an event.

"These eruptions are thought to have not only a local and regional impact, but potentially a global impact," de Silva said.

De Silva said it appears that local volcanoes hoard magma for about 300,000 years before they blow — and Uturuncu last erupted about 300,000 years ago.

"So that's why it's important to know how long this has been going on," he said.

The whole report is right here, so go read

Deal or no deal?

No deal. This hot off the wires, 4 minutes ago:

2011-10-25 13:37:17.492 GMT


-0- Oct/25/2011 13:37 GMT

UPDATE ten minutes on: But then there's this:

EU Leaders’ Summits Will Take Place Tomorrow, U.K. Says
2011-10-25 13:47:47.959 GMT

By Gonzalo Vina
    Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Both European leaders’ summits
scheduled for tomorrow will take place as planned, U.K. Prime
Minister David Cameron’s office said.

Link to Company News:{2539Z GR CN }

For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP}

The newswires are a very confusing place sometimes. As a second update, Briefing dot com is also reporting the meeting will go ahead as scheduled now, so overall i think you can ignore this post.

So what does HSBC think about gold miners right now?

It thinks this:

Gold mining: Q3 earnings previews : Expect Q3 to show strong earnings improvements y-on-y; upgrading Royal Gold to Overweight from Neutral on poor share price performance
price performance
* Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen during Q3, up 13% and 1%, respectively, boosting revenues
* Due mainly to higher gold prices, gold companies will likely report strong increases in earnings vs. Q3 2010, and also relative to Q2 2011
* We are reiterating our positive view on the sector; we are also upgrading Royal Gold to Overweight from Neutral after a recent drop in share price

Sector rally in prospect - With a large move in gold prices during the quarter, averaging USD1706/oz, up from USD1509 in Q2 and USD1227/oz in Q3 2010, we forecast a significant rally in the gold sector stocks and note that delivery of higher Q3 earnings may act as a catalyst to refocus investor attention on the attractive value in the sector.

Costs drivers slow, although perhaps more in Q4 - This quarter a reduction in oil prices and weakness in producer (non-dollar) currencies will have had some positive effects on overall costs. However, accounting timing may push the full effects more into Q4.

Rising tide has not lifted all boats - Despite the 39% increase in gold price since Q3 2010, many of the gold stocks have not moved up much and some have been hit by substantial declines. The market has severely punished companies that disappoint. Companies that have delivered have also not shown stellar performance. We continue to view the entire sector as offering significant upside and reiterate our strong sector buy call. We are reiterating our Overweight ratings for Agnico-Eagle (AEM) (, Barrick Gold (ABX) (, Goldcorp (GG), Kinross ( (KGC), Newmont (NEM), Randgold (RGLD) and Yamana ( (AUY). We upgrade our rating of Royal Gold shares to Overweight from Neutral as the stock price has recently dropped and maintain our TP of USD89.

We have made minor changes to our models that include an update to the average spot prices for precious- and base- metals, producer currency exchange rates, and oil prices, in addition to other minor model changes.

And you too can read the full 25 page PDF report by clicking right here

I hadn't noticed how popular the e-mail digest had become...

...before checking back office a few minutes ago, but it turns out that over 1000 of you have signed up for the service now. That is rather indeed a very lot in your humble scribe's considered opinion, so I thought I'd take space here and point it out as an option to more people because it's an easy no-fuss way to get your IKN dosage every day without the bother of coming back to the site all the time. All you do is:

1) Click here (or on the link at the top right of the page there) which takes you to the free subscription page (yup, totally free)
2) Put in your mail address in the space provided and add the anti-spam code word

3) Get a mail in your mailbox with a link in it
4) Click the link. Done!

And as the whole thing is run by Feedburner, part of Google Nation™, you're 100% guaranteed not to get spammed afterwards...because they're all nice people at Google. You then get all the IKN posts that were written the day before in a handy single mail early each morning. 

So now you know.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio over the last three years:

xJust thinking out loud, more than anything else.


An important musical moment: Tongo does Justin Bieber's 'Baby'

Tongo is a famous singer in Peru (but just why I've never really understood). Justin Bieber isn't

Here are the lyrics, Tongo version:

WOOOUU WWAAA JAMM (x3) yut not yur loming ,hay nut chut jenger, yak cha me never , an-mita braa-aaa, you huaman love ,you huaman jam , hay WIN WIN

clever ever ever diam par, arwining arpin jertru or plenying wi gerlfriend, want da senying or tur tur may yun CHULUMAYS ay far far fanrou fanrou fleita AN AWAR LA BEIBI BEIBI BEIBI hoooular BEIBI BEIBI BEIBI hoooular ,ha cunchu MAAA mi MAAA (repeat)

The main reason why OWS will fail

Winter's coming.

And when it does, the portion of the 99% that wants to be one of the 1% will go home and turn on The X Factor or Dr. House or E! Entertainment Channel or the Monday Night game. 

And that's a lot of the 99%.

Why doesn't Marin Katusa talk about Ram Power ( any longer?

It's strange how the twisting, frontrunning, self-serving scam runner and scumbag Marin Katusa of Casey Research has stopped talking about Ram Power (, isn't it?

  • After all, he called RPG as his top pick for 2010.
  • And he pumped it all through the year while it slowly but steadily dropped from $4 to $3 to $2.

So how are things going these days over at


But don't worry about Marin folks, as he's already trousered the fat finder's fees he made from the private placements. Getting rich instead of you is almost as good as getting rich because of you....perhaps....not.

Reports of copper's death...

...have been greatly exaggerated.

dyodd, dudette, dyodd, dude.

UPDATE: Two hours after the bell and Cu is really motoring now

IKN recommends: Bear Shaped Sphere

Bear Shaped Sphere is a really great travel blog run by Eileen Smith, who's a resident of Chile but trots all around The Americas and then writes about it. Excellent script and photography too, anyone interested in LatAm is bound to get a kick out of it.

Here's the link again, just to make sure you go visit. Now go visit.

Chart of the day is...

...the Argentine Presidential election results:

Cristina whupped some serious bigtime ass yesterday.

When asked why CFK won by such a big margin, Les Luthiers responded, "Es lo que hay".


An excerpt from IKN129

Just for the blinking flip of it. The ticker symbols are blotted out, of course.

dyodd, dude.

The IKN Weekly, out now

Just another straight dirt track road

IKN129 has just been sent to subscribers. It's rather large.

Wondering why the current Chilean government is the most unpopular in modern history?

Check out Robert Funk's post today, entitled "Pressure". Excerpt:

"...the Minister of Justice announced that promotion of judges would depend on a review of how they are sentencing those arrested during the student demonstrations." Continues here

Y'know, 20/20 hindsight and all that, it's clear that Allende didn't stand a chance. Not in Chile.

Never doubted it for a minute

winnah winnah chikkin dinnah

In fact, IKN has been calling this result ever since Nestor died. Here's Reuters:
Center-left Argentine President Cristina Fernandez was headed for easy re-election on Sunday with 55 percent of the vote, according to sources with access to an exit poll funded by the government.
Her nearest competitor was Socialist provincial governor Hermes Binner with 14 percent of the vote, the poll showed several hours before voting booths were to close. CONTINUES HERE

UPDATE: The results are in now and here's a longer write-up on the Cristina win from the same Reuters team in Buenos Aires.