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12/13/12

Primero (P.to) (PPP) shares will drop on today's news

Just last week (December 5th to be exact), your humble scribe was chewing the cud regarding the prospects of Primero Mining (P.to) (PPP) with longtime reader and mailpal 'GC'. Here's a slightly edited version of one of the mails sent from this desk to GC's:

It's an interesting one. P failed to buy Young Davidson, openly states it wants to grow via M&A, but with a mkt cap of ~$600m and working cap of ~$100m options look limited. So they try for a like-sized goldie and try to pay with 100% paper? Immediate share price drop. However, if I were the P CEO I'd be dying to do an all-paper deal as the stock is still currently valued up to the hilt and there are plenty of beaten down prices out there. But what to buy? Explorecos are the cheapest, but they weigh heavily on balance sheet until up and running. And i don't see many pure Au plays out there with the price tag P can afford. 

So today we get this news, as P has decided to go the all-paper exploreco-with-prospect route. The only question is whether P shares will manage to stay above $6. I reckon it's a 50/50 chance.

UPDATE: It wasn't a difficult call, P.to now down 6.3% in early trading. But even with today's drop, having stared at the price action in P for a few weeks and for a small part of that time having shorted the stock for a small trading win (now closed, currently no position) I'd still venture to say that it's one of the most artificially inflated stock prices in the junior world right now, the epitome of style over substance.

Update 2: Pretty close original guess, in fact. It got to $6.03 before the BS spinners kicked in and pushed it back up.