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Argentina 4, Ecuador 0

The Albiceleste kicked serious butt tonight and cheered your author up no end. Messi was superlative and clear man of the match but we'll feature a photo of El Kun scoring the first goal, just for the look on his face:

And life goes on.

UPDATE: Ok, an extra. The goals on video:

Damn, that felt good

Five days of metals and miners: June 2nd

The regular Saturday slot: The last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).

Friday was good.



Reluctance, by Robert Frost 
(first verse, dedicated to EW)

Out through the fields and the woods
And over the walls I have wended;
I have climbed the hills of view
And looked at the world, and descended;
I have come by the highway home,
And lo, it is ended.

The Friday OT: Paloma Faith: Stone Cold Sober (Live Abbey Road 2009)

I remember hearing this track and watching the official video a couple of years ago and thinking "...not bad...bit pop-ish for me...image overdone...i wonder if she can really sing..." in the way assholes like me get all pretentious about....ugh...modern music. Then last week my brother (who is never wrong) sends me this:

And holy moley, she may well be packaged for ThisModernWorld but maaaaan this lady can SING. She gets full respect from her band too. So get with this too.

It really is about time that the Canadian mining community told people like Kendra Low to go fuck themselves

The following has been forwarded to this humble corner of cyberspace by seven eight readers so far, therefore it's time to give it an airing at this humble corner of cyberspace. And before we excerpt then ask readers to link through to read more, there's space for a message for Kendra: Maybe people would take you more seriously if you took that stupid fucking black goth nail varnish off your fingernails, you freakin' knownothing dumbass with a sense of entitlement bigger than freakin' Howe Street and all the dickheads that inhabit that nest of vipers.'s the excerpt:

Baja Mining Corp. is facing a lawsuit in the Supreme Court of British Columbia from Kendra Low, its former corporate secretary and the daughter of former company president John Greenslade. She complains that the company wrongfully dismissed her from her $250,000-per-year job and that it defamed her by saying she was underqualified and overpaid. She seeks $375,000 in severance pay plus damages for defamation.
The suit comes three weeks after the end continues here

dyodd. Disclosure: No position in at all. And Kendra Lowe can really, really really go fuck herself one hundred times over. It takes a special type of assholery to stand out amonst the parasite assholes of the Canadian junior mining world  but she got that talent.

Join the IKN mailer list (it's free)

Here's a polite, cordial and humble invitation to join the free IKN mailing list. What you do is click here, then put in your e-mail address and fill in the non-spam line (the service is run by Feedburner, so 100% guaranteed no spam afterwards, these people are nice people). You then get all of the IKN posts for one day delivered to your mailbox the morning afterwards, wrapped with a bow and no need to come to the site to read the posts any longer.

So if you enjoy the blatherings around these parts, the email service is a quick and convenient way of getting them all without the bother of all that internetwebpipes browsing and stuff. So join the thousands (literally true, which surprises me more than you) who already get the morning mailer today, it's 100% free and mail-safe too. Here's the necessary link again, just to make sure.

Calculated risk on the May jobs report

Don't mess with the rest, stick with the best, Calculated Risk is the place to be for this report. Linked here is Bill McB's first reflection, you'll get more later so go back to the main page, right here.

Meanwhile, gold has popped hard on the prospect of QE3 not just being back on the table, but front and square in the middle of the table, piping hot served fresh from the oven with gravy and everything

Here's the 5 min chart, shows the pop clearly

Chart of the day is...

...12 months of gold (via GLD), silver (via SLV) and the S&P500 index:

If you were wondering why silverbugs haven't been as annoying and shrill they normally are recently...


Fortuna Silver ( Caylloma news

This reported in Peru's national daily, La Republica, this afternoon right here (although it should be pointed out that the photo used in the report isn't of what's going on there and merely used as a representation). For the record, Minera Bateas is Fortuna Silver's ( (FSM) wholly owned subsidiary that operates the FVI Caylloma mine. Also fwiw, your humble scribe will be analyzing this event in IKN161, out Sunday.

Arequipa: Caylloma District Begins 48 Hour Strike Against Mining Company
Thursday May 31st 2012, 5:40pm

The population demands public works in the region from the Minera Bateas, as the company agreed to fund one large community project per year.

Around 800 members of the population of the district of Caylloma, province of the same name in the Arequipa region, today began a 48 hour strike by way of protest against the Minera Bateas mining company. The protesters blocked the road that connects the districts of Silbayo and Caylloma, causing various vehicles to be blocked.

Meanwhile the director of the district municipality of Caylloma, Óscar Villavicencio, said that the population had joined in this strike action because the mining company had agreed to fund one large public/community project per year, however the company had not kept its word since 2009. He said that technicians from the municipality had presented dossiers and projects for some works (to the company) but the mining company had not funded them or moved them forward.

Cajamarca: The start of the anti-Conga strike today in Cajamarca

Two days ago we brought you images of the pro-Conga march in the main square in Cajamarca city. Today marks the first day of strikes against the project, with marches and roadblocks being headed up by local leader Gregorio Santos. Just a few minutes ago, this was the scene in the main square.

What we know: It's packed with anti-mining protesters, it's peaceful, there are more people out against the project today than there were for it a couple of days ago. More photos right here.

UPDATE: As the day has worn on, a couple of seemingly isolated incidents have been reported, with one reporter for a pro-establishment media outlet getting abuse and a couple of shoves from a crowd that formed around the news team.  Also, road blocks have now been set up on a couple of the main roads out of the city, which is somewhat of an incitement to violence at a later date (hours or days, all depends). Overall, the fair call is to say that the first day of the strike has been largely peaceful with a couple of smallish confrontations.

Mexico Presidentials: Reforma puts AMLO just four points from Peña Nieto

Here's the chart from the numbers (ht sam quinones)

Here's the Reforma front page with the numbers and note the swings, with EPN down from 42% to 38%, AMLO up from 27% to 34%, JVM down from 29% to 23%. AMLO got the momo, you better believe it.

Today is the the day that people really start saying AMLO is in with a big shout in these elections. #yosoy132

Copper Fox (CUU.v)

On the back of this NR, the market is buying Copper Fox (CUU.v) this morning. Are you mad?

Jeesh, talk about the blind leading the blind. There's a religious experience waiting for you new longs getting pushed into this stock by predatory pumpers so let's be clear now, on a scale of one to never about this Schaft Creek thing ever becoming a mine on this data, the correct answer is never. It can't be stated more clearly, ok?

UPDATE: For the record, this post went out when CUU.v was climbing through $1.20 and $1.22, early morning. We're now way past the close and here's the 5 day chart to see how things went:

We'll come back some time next week to see how things panned out for those keen new suckers shareholders who jumped on today.

Baja Mining (

Nuff said.

Well, there are a few things left to say. First & foremost, a full disclosure of no position in the stock. Second, the last couple of IKN Weeklies have mentioned the potential for a trade but we're definitely steering clear and watching from the sidelines until we know how Mount Kellett (MK) decides to play its hand. Third, it's a fair guess that MK will go after John "You'llNeverWorkInThisTownAgain" Greenslade with its legal bazookas some time soon. Fourth, the AGM at end June will be an interesting one, what with the set-up for preference shares in the works.

Rio Alto Mining ( 2q12 production so far

We're two months through 2q12 and we hear this from Rio Alto (RIO), via the Scotia LatAm conference in London this week. presented and here's how Scotia told the story in its morning mailer today:
Rio Alto Has Poured 40k oz Gold Quarter-to-Date:  Rio Alto highlighted that so far in Q2, the company has poured a very impressive 40,000 oz gold and have now delivered on their gold prepayment facility commitments through to May 2013.  An expansion to 36,000 tonnes of ore to the pad per day is scheduled to begin in late July with 2012 expansion capex expected to be $25 – 27mm (in line with recent guidance but Mark conservatively models $35mm).  An updated resource estimate is expected to be completed in September which will be used to develop a new reserve and mine plan.  In terms of the sulphide project, the company expects to receive an internal-only feasibility study in H1/2013.  However, the plan is to start small and fund the project internally.

So hey, let's do some math: 56k in 1q12, then a projected 60k oz in 2q12. You kinda get the feeling is going to beat its 160k oz target for the year, dontcha? But still, bets dyodd, dude.

B2Gold ( insider sales: I'm sorry, did I say half a million shares sold by insiders in the last few days?

Oops, silly me, I meant three point five million shares sold by insiders in the last three days:

May 30/12 May 28/12 Corra, Mark Control or Direction Common Shares 97 - Other -125,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Garagan, Thomas Control or Direction Common Shares 97 - Other -125,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Stansbury, Dennis Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -250,000 $3.30
May 30/12 May 28/12 Corra, Mark Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -500,000 $3.30
May 30/12 May 28/12 Garagan, Thomas Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -500,000 $3.30
May 30/12 May 28/12 Richer, Roger Control or Direction Common Shares 97 - Other -125,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Johnson, Clive Thomas Control or Direction Common Shares 97 - Other -125,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Johnson, George Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -500,000 $3.30
May 30/12 May 28/12 Johnson, George Direct Ownership Common Shares 51 - Exercise of options 500,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Johnson, George Direct Ownership Options from B2Gold Corp. Incentive Plan (Trustee Options) 51 - Exercise of options -500,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Johnson, George Direct Ownership Options from B2Gold Corp. Incentive Plan (Trustee Options) 50 - Grant of options 500,000 $0.020
May 30/12 May 28/12 Richer, Roger Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -500,000 $3.30
May 29/12 May 28/12 MacLean, Ian Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -250,000 $3.30
May 30/12 May 28/12 Johnson, Clive Thomas Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -500,000 $3.30
May 28/12 May 28/12 Cross, Robert Melvin Douglas Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -500,000 $3.30

Which at $3.30 a pop puts us over ONE...TEN...MILLION...DOLLARS:

Well, at least we don't have to worry about the company's operations or whether they have any strike actions hiding behind the curtains in Nicaragua that they're not telling their shareholders about . Oh, then again...

Peru's poverty levels drop in 2011, according to the official beancounters INEI at least

Or maybe that should be "at most", because the INEI is well known as a purveyor of statistical bullshit. The latest data came out yesterday and puts Peru's poverty level at 27.8% of the population. It's a freakin' joke, surely? You gotta wonder what these stuffed suits are smoking in Lima. Do they ever visit the real Peru? Ever get out of Lima? Ever get out of Miraflores or San Isidro, for that matter?

Hey look, the way things are going in ten years' time (or so) Peru's poverty level will be zero and from that moment, all the poor families you see in the country will be simply an illusion.

Chart of the day is...

...copper, 2012:

With so many anal ysts coming out ith bear calls on China all of a sudden, the contrary antennae are buzzin' chez Otto. Gotta watch coppper closely now.


Argentina and the Dollar

Thanks to a headsup from main man DB, IKN today states that nothing ever changes. Here's the great Argentine comedian Tato Bores from way back in black'n'white time, explaining things that apply 100% today (if you live in Buenos Aires and haunt the microcentro, at least).

  • Non-Spanish speakers: This video is not for you.
  • Non-nativo* speakers of Spanish: Consider this an advanced level lesson. 
  • Non-Argentine Spanish speakers: Yes, they really do speak like this down there.
  • Argentines: Tato is the greatest, no?

Vermouth con papas fritas y...GOOD SHOW

*as they say

Broken slot machine, perhaps broken

The thing that got me when reading this NR out of Lumina Copper (LCC.v) yesterday evening wasn't that the company needed some working capital, because that was a given (you just follow the quarterly burn rate and cash position to see that). Nah, the thing that got me was that the company wasn't running a non-brokered private placement that would have been filled to the brim before any retail mortals could get any (the usual LCC.v thing) because Ross Beaty and friends were all keen on snapping up the new cheap prices. After all, these are the very same guys who've told us the plan is to sell Taca Taca in 2012 and this is the very same project that Canadian brokerages have slapped $20+ valuations upon (and surely no mistake there, right?...right?), so what's stopping the guys from filling up here? Could it be that the broken slot machine is feeling the pinch? I was under the distinct impression that $10m is pocket change for you people...but hey, wouldn't be the first time I was wrong about such things.

Anyway, here's the start of the NR that explains how LCC.v is getting a loan from its mothership. 

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire -05/29/12)- Lumina Copper Corp. (LCC.V) (the "Company" or "Lumina") hereby announces that it has received a loan of up to Cdn.$10 million from Lumina Capital Limited Partnership ("LCLP"). The loan accrues interest at a rate of 10% per annum and will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes.
The loan is repayable on the earlier of: (i) six months from the date of initial advance; (ii) the date of any change of control of Lumina; or (iii) the occurrence of an event of default under the Credit Agreement between Lumina and LCLP.
The loan cannot be converted into, exchanged for or otherwise modified to create any obligation to Lumina to issue, directly or indirectly, any equity or voting securities of Lumina or any subsidiary of Lumina, including with respect to repayment of either principal or interest accruing in respect of the loan. As the loan is not convertible into equity or voting securities of Lumina, there will be no effect on the percentage of securities of Lumina held by LCLP as a result of the loan.
Lumina continues to yada yada continues here

dyodd, dude

ps: or maybe Ross is scared crapless about Cristina too

Chart of the day is...

..The Mexican Peso (MXN) versus the US Dollar (USD), three month chart:

The forex markets seem to think AMLO is in with a chance, too.


Today's Conga march in Cajamarca, Peru

Check out this photo, taken today in the main square of the city of Cajamarca Peru and all about the Conga project (Newmont (NEM) and Buenaventura (BVN)). That's a big crowd in the march, right?

Now look again, because the march today was a pro-mining gathering of local citizens who want the Conga project to go ahead. More photos of the peaceful and obviously popular gathering right here.

Game on: It's Colombia Oil Production Spot The Difference Time

President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia, January 13th 2012:

"We're not going to achieve this million barrels (of production per day) in August of 2014, I believe we're going to get there this month or next month at the latest."

Mining & Energy Minister Mauricio Cárdenas, May 29th 2012:
Colombia will reach its target of producing one million barrels of petroleum per day (bpd) in two months' time.... "...we really are very close, we have the oil..."

A chart:

Another chart:

Source: ANH (who, unlike the quoted, are not political BS merchants)

Three questions for B2Gold (

1) Is the strike and mine gate picket that stopped production at its Limon mine in Nicaragua still going, or has the strike finished yet?

2) Will the company inform the market about the strike and subsequent loss of production, or will it prefer to use mushroom politics on the English speaking world?

3) Is the large 500,000 share inside sale made by company Chairman Robert Cross yesterday connected with the labour relations problems?

Inquiring minds...

Xstrata's Tintaya mine in Peru

Here are a few things to know about a complicated situation, both regionally and politically.

1) Start with this Reuters report that does a good job in covering the bases and pointing to the issues behind this protest.

2) Peru's government has now declared a state of emergency in the region, which is mainly to stop crowd assemblies and helps de-block roads quickly.

3) Latest reports say that there have been four deaths from the disturbances and plenty of injured, including injuries to around 30 police officers.

4) Yes, as the national level politicos and the company points out, the protests are almost certainly being driven by left wing groups that are the same people behind the Conga protests. And yes, although not perfect (Tintaya has a history of imperfect relations with its local hosts, stretching back to days long before Xstrata bought the asset) the mine does a reasonable job, does contribute to locals and its environmental record is acceptable (the main complaint from locals is less about water contamination and more about the dust that's kicked up by the supply and haulage trucks that go to and from the mine, as the dust clouds affect grazing pastures and animal livestock).

5) However, there's no smoke without fire and the left wing groups pushing this protest have tapped into the feelings of people who are not content with the relationship between themselves (largely poor or very poor) and the mine (a big wealth generator for itself, the State and a small group of locals). Fact is, if you spent years in abject poverty while watching brand new 4X4s speed past you every day then went home to your house with no water or electricity supply to eat a plate of potatoes after 14 hours in the fields, you might get a bit pissed at your neighbours, too.

It's not a simple, cut and dried protest and there's a larger political game in play too, so a blog post such as this one will only ever touch on a few of the main issues and leave other things out. Nationally, Humala's government is now being sorely tested and those that want him to go back to his leftist roots (his impressively quick move to the centre and even to the right wing has been documented on these pages for the last 12 months) are pushing political buttons. It remains to be seen how he reacts, because if he doesn't make a stand soon, Peru's image as miner-friendly is going to go down the toilet.

UPDATE: Your humble scribe receives a couple of mailed in comments on this post and as a result will fill in a couple of gaps in this overview post. Firstly, Xstrata does contribute a decent wedge of cash to the local area, but the way in which it's done is mostly via the Peru law that hands the cash over to the regional government, who is then in charge of spending the money. The problem is that Xstrata can legitimately say it's making big contributions and the locals can legitimately say that they feel no benefits, because the regional government is run by a bunch of self-serving fools who don't have a clue about how or on what they should spend the windfall.  Secondly, I say that Peru's image as miner-friendly might go down the toilet, not for this protest or the Conga protest, but for the ones that come. If Humala doesn't make a stand one way or the other and just tries to let this issue slide, there will be other protests about other big mines, be they operating assets or projects. When two major headline grabbing mine protests become three or five or a dozen, that's when the image crisis will really kick in.

UPDATE 2: Another good report just filed by Reuters this afternoon. They're doing good work and you can read it here. 

UPDATE 3: Darnit, even more great work from Reuters in this report. They' knocking it out the park today

More on 'Yo soy 132' in Mexico

It seems that interest in the "Yo Soy 132" movement in Mexico is larger than your humble scribe suspected, because yesterday's post on the subject (that was originally written for the IKN Weekly out last Sunday) has been a very popular one, going on the number of hits it's had in the last 24 hours. Therefore, those wanting to know more in the English language about the developments in Mexico's election are strongly urged to check out The Mex Files today and this post, that gives a lot more and taps into the feeling that has made Yo Soy 132, or +131 or 131+1 or The Mexican Spring or whatever you want to call it this fast growth phenomenon that may become the key issue in the final month of the Presidential campaign.

We also direct you to Aguachile, another English language blog on Mexico that does a good job in following the country's political scene. Interesting times in Mexico, people.

Chart of the day is...

...three years of the gold/silver ratio.

You guys should know by now that I'm mocking of chart-based soothsaying. Charts are good to consider what's happened, not what's to come. However* I can't help but see good things coming to gold soon as it tracks back down to 50X silver in the next six weeks or so. There, I've said it, now sign me up to the tekkie anal yst club, charge me the annual sub and send me the name badge.

* There's always a 'but' around this time in a paragraph like this, isn't there?


Mexico’s election: I am one hundred and thirty-two (from IKN160)

From yesterday's edition of The IKN Weekly:

Mexico’s election: I am one hundred and thirty-two
We continue to keep an eye on developments in the Mexico election, with the latest being an upsurge in student and youth interest via an online movement going under the name “Yo Soy 132”, (“I am 132”). In general terms, this started when the PRI candidate and current frontrunner, Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) spoke at the Iberoamericana University (UIA) on May 11th (yes just 16 days ago, these things spread quickly). At the speech he got into a discussion with students who made a particular point of pressing him on his actions as governor of Mexico State in the town of San Salvador Atenco in 2006 (13) (a famous incident in Mexico of police brutality that ended with two dead, dozens of women sexually assaulted by police and hundreds arrested), when he ordered the repression of protests at the time. The university appearance turned into a PR nightmare when EPN had to be quickly shuffled out the building under cries of “Murderer!” and “Garbage TV Candidate” but his handlers then made it worse. The PRI spin committee decided on a tack of calling the university protesters “a handful of infiltrators and manipulators”, trying to tell the world that the protests weren’t led by real students but extremists who had got into the hall under false pretenses.
Big mistake, guys. Like really big.
That might have worked ten or 20 years ago, but we now live in a different age of communication and the PRI false spin was quickly returned to them with massive interest on top. The first move was a Youtube video produced by the students who protested in the hall that day called “131 students of the Ibero answer (watch it here (14)) in which 131 protesters that day showed the PRI spin as false by plainly identifying themselves as students of the university, rather than being a handful of infiltrators. The students also noted that the incident wasn’t even reported on pro-PRI news channels such as the national Televisa channel. The video has gone viral, with over 1m hits already, and from it the twitter hashtag #marchayosoy132 immediately sprang up, which means “March, I am 132” and alludes to solidarity with the 131 students by saying that “I am the 132nd person here, count me in too”. This hashtag has gone viral in Mexico too and is a rallying point for student voices in this election and with that we now get to the point of this quick resume of events.
The “Yo Soy 132” movement has already been likened to a sort of Arab Spring inside Mexico. Youth and student participation in elections has always been notably apathetic in the country and the 18-29 age group ignored by politicians of all sides. But suddenly young Mexicans find themselves with a platform and a voice, be it as it may a hastily constructed platform, and a newly found mass interest in this election process. It’s taken the political parties by surprise and according to recent reports and commentary by trusted Mexican sources, there’s a sudden change in TV campaigns from all sides to address this young audience. The stakes are high too, with an estimated 24 million Mexicans between the ages of 18 and 29 (i.e. 30% of the total voting population) and at least 20% of them undecided in their vote preference. Those kind of numbers can make a big difference to momentum at a crucial point in the election. The potential big winner from this newfound interest in politics amongst Mexico’s youth is left wing PRD candidate AMLO (though he’s best considered centre-left these days), now running second to EPN and although the gap between 2nd and 1st is hotly debated amongst the somewhat unreliable Mexican pollsters (15) most agree that AMLO is gaining some momentum and come the day of the vote on July 1st  things will be closer than they are today (though how much closer is anyone’s guess). We again remind readers that of the three main candidates, AMLO is the one perceived as negative to the Mexican mining industry status quo. We will of course continue to monitor this election closely in the weeks left before the vote.

And here's the video mentioned in the text. Might turn out to be one of the more important youtubes ever.

We shall see.

Chart of the day is...

...Peru's monthly import and export figures, year 2000 to date.

The YPF Ref, or the latest in Argentine futbol fashion

As from this weekend, all football referees in league matches (first division and second division) have this on the back of their shirts...

...which translates as "YPF is Argentine again!", is directly sponsored by the government and is all about the recent re-nationalization/expropriation of YPF from Spain's Repsol. So what was that about sport and politics not mixing again? Source La Nacion

The David J. Coffin Memorial Fundraising Dinner

Here's a heads up on a good thing. On Monday June 4th, that's one week from today, Cambridge House is organizing the "David J. Coffin Memorial Fundraising Dinner" (click that link to go see the details on the Cambridge House page) in Vancouver, BC. Here in the words of his brother Eric is a line about the evening:
"The purpose of the dinner (other than to get together and drink enough to forget what our market screens look like!) is to raise funds for the “David J. Coffin Memorial Bursary in Geology” which is being established at UBC."

As for the cost, individual tickets are $250 and there's an option to buy full tables which has been popular, or so I'm informed. Here's Eric again on that:
"There are standard tables at $2000  - that is a cheque written to Cambridge House (a business expense)  and the net proceeds of the dinner will go to the Memorial Bursary in Geology at UBC in David’s name.    The premium tables are $10000 – that will be a cheque written directly to UBC and is a charitable donation in full.   They are not advertising the fact it’s working that way on the Cambridge site which is why I’m sending the email directly.   Cambridge can take care of forwarding that and making sure it gets to the right place."

So folks, if in Vancouver and you're looking for a good time evening next week look no further. We hear that organizers are expecting somewhere between 300 and 400 people to attend, so why not make it yourself and push the number towards that upper limit. You'll help to raise money for a new bursary in Geology and doubtless enjoy a fun evening. All the details on the Cambridge house page here, including contact addresses, hotel booking facilities if needed, etc.

Meanwhile, if you can't attend but would still like to make a donation to the cause, here's the page to go to for that.


The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN160 has just been sent to subscribers. The bit on Mexico politics is quite fun, the rest is the normal boring numbertripe that drives you round the bend eventually.