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7/23/13

Peru's continued strong electricity demand points to an improving country GDP in June 2013

We've noted previously the strong correlation between electricity demand and GDP in Peru, so today we catch up with the charts as the June electricity numbers from the Ministry of Energy and Mining (MEM are just out. Here's the raw use chart (please note the cut-down Y-axis) and the trend is crystal clear; Peru's growth continues unabated:


So we then take those numbers, crunch them a bit and get the Year-over-Year percentage change in consumption, which goes like this:


Apart from the slump cuasded by the financial crisis, the standout here is how the percentage growth has trended slightly down since mid-2010. But, the last couple of months have hinted at a break higher, which would suggest Peru is doing just fine overall (and especially taking into account the commods prices slump of 2013). 

We then compare the electricity percentage growth line to the main headline GDP growth for the country (which, as you can see, correlates very elegantly) as supplied by the country's Central Bank:


Again, over to the right we have the new figure for electricity demand but the June GDP estimate isn't in yet. But there's decent reason to expect Peru to return another 6%+ figure when the announcement is made (usually at the end of the month or the beginning of the next).

Bottom line: Robust growth continues in Peru, as indicated by the energy consumption.