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4/18/14

The Kitco gold forecast debate rages on

Rages, I say! Rrrawwrr

After the original post which pointed out the useless calls made by Kitco's gold price experts, then this from mickeyman, then this, then this, then other things, Mickeyman over at World complex goes further in his "yeah but it's not even any good as a contrary indicator call Otto, sorry" opinion in this post (as usual, great graphs to back up his call). so I left this underneath in his comments section...
Leaving aside the Time Lord thing, I've already noted in a couple of places (admittedly intuitively) that the contrary indication is more obvious on the "strong signal" weeks, i.e. when any option gets more than 50% of the term-used-loosely-expert opinion. In other words, the more vehement the term-used-loosely-expert opinions, the more likely it is to be wrong. Isn't that the archetypical definition of contrary indicator?

...because I do think there's still a decent chance of a contrary (i.e. potential money making trade) indicator buried here. Anyway, go read his latest if you're suitably greedy or numbernerdy (guilty both charges, m'lud)