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7/31/14

Argentina default and things: If you don't believe IKN...

...as it insists until blue in the proverbial face that the whole shebang is being mightily overplayed by people with more agenda than smarts, read this analysis. Here's a chunk:
The exchange bondholders are not suffering grievous harm: nearly all of them are quite happy right now, having bought their bonds well below the levels at which they’re currently trading. The holdouts are not suffering grievous harm: they bought non-performing debt, they still own non-performing debt, and the value of that debt is much higher than what they paid for it. And as for the ordinary Argentine citizen, well, there’s a lot of inflation and unemployment and black-market foreign-exchange trading going on, but that’s been true for years, and it’s far from clear how much — or even whether — the default is going to exacerbate such things. 

Indeed, Argentina is in pretty good financial shape right now. Both the country and its corporations have relatively little debt, which means relatively little problem rolling it over. Bank deposits are stable. The exchange rate doesn’t seem any more fragile than it has been for months. Foreign reserves have actually been going up in recent weeks. In terms of day-to-day financial life in Argentina, today looks almost identical to yesterday. Nothing much has really changed. 

Or, just look at the Argentine stock market — the chart at the top of this article. You’ll see that it’s on a veritable tear right now. As in, going up, not down. Part of that is just inflation — but part of it is the market showing that it doesn’t particularly mind the fact that the sovereign is back in default.
From about the only person writing op-eds in English that understands what's going on. Yup, it's that Felix Salmon guy again. Read the whole thing here, he nails it.