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What happens in the Brazil second round run-off election in the next two weeks

First, be clear about the bottom line: Dilma will win.

With that in place, here's how the the next two weeks running up to the October 26th vote will unfold:
1) Aecio Neves will be promoted as the "business friendly" alternative.
2) Journalists and op-ed writers smell a story and the obvious advantages of playing up a "dramatic" and "tight" and "anything could happen" election. The media feeds on itself, doubt and excitement grows among the chattering classes.
3) Polls show Dilma and Neves as either neck and neck, or Neves in a slight lead, depending on the company and/or day.
4) The Bovespa moves up on speculation, volumes high, action volatile and choppy.
5) Houses like Goldman Sachs will call Neves as slight favourite in public declarations.
6) At some point next week, maybe Tuesday 21st or Weds 22nd, the Bovespa will drop heavily as the plug is pulled on the speculative pump and profits taken by the people who read Brazil correctly, instead of relying on wishful thinking.
7) Come Friday 24th, whispers and off record reports of "momentum shifting" will do the rounds.
8) Sunday 26th, Dilma wins 52% to 48% of valid votes.
9) Big fat Bovespa sell off Monday 27th
10) Life returns to normal.

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