- Leonardo Di Caprio will win the Best Actor Oscar. Period. No argument. No question. Go and see the movie just to see what Di Caprio does.
- Even though I enjoyed (definition: cinematic pleasure) Quentin's The Hateful Eight more, it's abundantly clear that The Revenant will win the Best Picture Oscar.
- Unless The Academy gets snooty about awarding the prize to the same dude twice in a row, Alejandro González Iñárritu will win Best Director.

2/6/16
The Revenant (no spoilers)
About The IKN Weekly
Dear Frank,
2/5/16
The Friday OT: Jon Hopkins; Collider
UPDATED Three more things about IKN's Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) / Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) deal talks exclusive
Probably just coincidence, innit Kev?
UPDATE 2, just after 3pm local time: As expected LSG issues one of those denials-that-isn't-a-denial. The eagle-eyed among you will notice the use of the word "material" in para 2...
"The Company is not aware of any material, undisclosed corporate developments that would account for recent trading in its stock."...which is the legal cop-out, because negotiations of this sort are never material until the deal is agreed.
All good fun.
IKN leads, the daily newspapers of Panama follow
The 16th Court Prosecutors of Panama have requested Interpol to arrest Richard Fifer, president of Petaquilla Minerals, and Kenneth William Morgan, co-signee or member of the company board of directors, for the alleged crime of fraud against the company Gold Dragon Capital.
A source related to Fifer told this newspaper that Fifer was not in Panama and is assumed to be in either Spain or Brazil. Regarding Morgan, the source indicated that he is in Canada, his country of residence. Continues here.
More Minera IRL news this morning
Here's the link, here are the contents:
February 5, 2016Minera IRL Limited: Agreement Reached Regarding Control of Subsidiary CompanyLIMA, PERU--(Marketwired - Feb. 5, 2016) - Minera IRL Limited ("Minera IRL" or the "Company")AIM:MIRL)(BVLAC:MIRL) announces that it has reached an agreement in principle with Diego Benavides, General Manager of the Company's 99.99% owned operating subsidiary, Minera IRL S.A., to transfer the one share in the subsidiary not already owned by the Company to an independent Peruvian lawyer designated by the Board. In addition, this lawyer will hold a general power of attorney on behalf of the Board. These steps will result in the Company regaining control over Minera IRL S.A.The agreement requires that all criminal complaints and lawsuits are withdrawn and that an independent investigator immediately conducts an investigation into the whistleblower reports which the Company reported last year.The Company will retain a consulting engineer to assess the operations at the Corihuarmi mine, which will provide the information needed to complete the outstanding matters which have delayed completion of the June 2015 interim financial statements.The Board will review both the composition of the Board and the management structure and make new appointments as appropriate, including a CEO and CFO.In addition, the Company reports that it was unable to pay a promissory note of $2.2 million to Rio Tinto which was due for payment on 31st January 2016, after Rio Tinto had granted a 31-day extension. The Company is in discussion with Rio Tinto regarding terms for a further extension.The Company's suspension to trading on AIM will remain in place until both the Company's June 2015 interim financial statements have been published and the Company's nominated adviser is satisfied that the Company can continuously comply with the AIM Rules for Companies.
Today's fun game
2/4/16
Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) in late stage talks to buy Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG)
UPDATE: IKN is now getting a whole bunch of hits from Reno Nevada, including the THO offices and Maupin Cox Legoy legal beagles. Hey, wonder why that is?
The Economist does Peru mining community risk
HudBay (HBM) and its jaguar
TUCSON, Ariz.— Conservation CATalyst and the Center for Biological Diversity released new video today of the only known wild jaguar currently in the United States. Captured on remote sensor cameras in the Santa Rita Mountains just outside Tucson, the dramatic footage provides a glimpse of the secretive life of one of nature’s most majestic and charismatic creatures. This is the first ever publicly released video of the jaguar, and it comes at a critical point in this cat’s conservation....But a huge conflict is brewing that threatens to destroy El Jefe’s home. A Canadian mining company is pushing to develop a massive open-pit copper mine right in the middle of the big cat’s territory. The mile-wide open pit and 800-foot-high piles of toxic mine waste would permanently destroy thousands of acres of occupied, federally protected jaguar habitat where this jaguar lives.“Clearly, the Santa Rita Mountains are a vital part of this cat’s home range,” said Bugbee. “This jaguar has been photographed in every month of the year in these mountains — there are more than 100 detections of him in the Santa Ritas since 2013 — how could anyone argue the importance of these mountains?”“The Rosemont Mine would destroy El Jefe’s home and severely hamstring recovery of jaguars in the United States,” said Serraglio. “At ground zero for the mine is the intersection of three major wildlife corridors that are essential for jaguars moving back into the U.S. to reclaim lost territory. The Santa Rita Mountains are critically important to jaguar recovery in this country, and they must be protected.”
Full story here, with the cool video footage of "El Jefe" the jaguar.
It's suddenly so bullish out there that...
Tax, streaming deals and the law of diminishing returns
New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to) breakout
According to this...
...that's a breakout and NGD now goes above U$3 on this move. Feeling lucky, chartist?
UPDATED: The Legendary Brent Cook isn't just a Legendary Legend in The Americas...
Excelsior Gold (EXG) 11.5cThe Kalgoorlie gold hopeful tracks its shares against the Brent Cook Life Cycle, which graphs the typical share movement of a resource junior from exploration to development.Brent Cook, seeing you asked, is a well-known northern hemisphere rock kicker and investment guru.According to the Utah University alumnus, valuations surge in the pre discovery phase, only to sag and enter an orphan period as the speculators quit. The shares then revive in the development/start up phase as institutions pile into the play.Excelsior’s share movements neatly fit the template, having gained favour on first output from its open pit Kalgoorlie North Gold ProjectSize wise, KNGP is no Super Pit. But with the Aussie dollar and production costs (including diesel) moving favourably, lustrous gold plays can come in small packages.Excelsior chief David Hamlyn says KNGP’s attraction lies in its proximity to Norton Gold’s underused Paddington mill down the road.Exelsior has struck a short term deal to supply the mill (now owned by China’s Zijin Mining) with 650,000 tonnes of ore.“Our dirt makes the same margin for them as their low grade stuff,’’ Hamlyn says.“It makes economic sense for them to treat it and it makes economic sense for us to supply it.’’With a skinny complement of 15 staff, Excelsior started mining in November, with a “base case” calendar year target of 29,000 ounces.A planned underground expansion could expand this to 50,000oz.Current reserves of 296,000oz won’t exactly have Newcrest or the nearby Northern Star quaking in their Blundstones, but Hamlyn is confident that a modest $1m exploration effort will unearth further riches across 22 target areas on the tenement (only seven have been tapped so far).On numbers spied on the back of a Palace Hotel coaster, 40,000oz would generate annual free cash flow of $12m, based on $A400/oz of all-in costs.We hazard a spec buy.Gold remains the one bright spot of resources and since when has Brent Cook ever been wrong?
Allow me to explain why gold is going up
okay, so we're all geniuses again
A chart:
A short lesson lesson on news release timing in the mining sector
Lake Shore Gold Confirms and Expands Shallow, High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Whitney Project
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Feb 4, 2016) -Lake Shore Gold Corp. (LSG)(NYSE MKT:LSG) ("Lake Shore Gold" or the "Company") today announced results from the first 13 holes (1,600 metres) of a new surface drilling program at the Whitney Project ("Whitney"), located to the south of the Company's Bell Creek Complex. The program includes 30,000 metres ("m") of surface drilling and is designed to test a number of high-potential areas between the past-producing Hallnor and Broulan Reef mines. continues here.
- Drilling of 110 Zone to south of Hallnor shaft:
- Confirms and expands mineralization to west (Intercepts: 29.42gpt/12.0m, 8.45gpt/9.5m and 6.45gpt/9.2m)
- Extends Zone to depth (Intercepts: 4.62gpt/3.1m and 3.02gpt/10.7m)
- Drilling in north volcanics indicates potential to extend near-surface resources to north and to depth (Intercepts: 3.20gpt/7.2m, 1.21gpt/15.0m and 2.24gpt/8.5m)
- 30,000 metre exploration program continuing with two surface drills.
2/3/16
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) and the interesting insider trade of the day
Today Jerry Korpan, director of B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), spent a touch over CAD$400,000 on BTO shares, average buy price CAD$1.12.
Reasonably chunky, plus the type of thing board members tend not to do if there's an equity placement in the near future.
Gotta wonder how stupid the dude who sold BTG at U$0.60 a couple of weeks ago feels.
How long before Frank Giustra hires Daniel Ameduri...
Panama issues an arrest warrant for Richard Fifer and Ken Morgan of ex-Petaquilla Gold (ex-PTQ)
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): The NOMAD resigns
Here's the NR, here's the text:
February 3, 2016Minera IRL Limited: Resignation of Nominated Adviser and Update on SuspensionLIMA, PERU--(Marketwired - Feb. 3, 2016) - Minera IRL Limited ("Minera IRL" or the "Company") (AIM:MIRL)(BVLAC:MIRL) announces that Canaccord Genuity Limited ("Canaccord"), the Company's existing Nominated Adviser, has pursuant to its Nominated Adviser and Broker Agreement (the "Agreement") given the Company 30 days' notice of the termination of the Agreement. Canaccord will therefore cease to act as the Company's Nominated Adviser and Broker from 3 March 2016. The Company has commenced the search for a replacement Nominated Adviser.The Company has been suspended from trading on AIM since 21 September 2015. Under the AIM Rules for Companies, the admission to trading on AIM of the Company's shares will be cancelled should it remain suspended for six months.The Company must therefore appoint a replacement Nominated Adviser and re-commence trading on AIM on or before 21 March 2016 in order to maintain its admission to AIM.The board is addressing the matters that led to the suspension and expects to make a further announcement regarding progress within the next week.
PS: In the upside-down world of IRL this is probably a good thing. But with Team Hodges lurking in the background, you never know.
2/2/16
Peru presidential election: Time to take Julio Guzman seriously
Subbers of The IKN Weekly will know the name because we mentioned it a couple of weekends ago, but it's time to note here on the blog that Julio Guzman, virtually unknown before Christmas, is rising rapidly in the voter intention polls for April's presidential election and now represents a serious threat to the establishment figures (Alan Garcia, PPK, Cesar Acuña) who are vying for that all-important second spot behind Keiko Fujimori that gets them into the inevitable second round run-off for the big prize.
Guzman (apologies for lack of accent over the A, doing this post in the airport on a phone) is now polling 10.4% and just in second in front of PPK and Acuña, according to pollsters GfK on Sunday (Keiko on 31% remains a lock for the round one win). Four weeks ago Guzman was on 2%, two weeks ago in a different company's poll he was on 5%. Those are big strides in a short time and it's being fuelled by a groundswell of opinion that wants to see fresh blood in its political scene. Smart, eloquent, presentable and with a strong online presence (his shoestring campaign to date has been based squarely on social media), Guzman fits the bill. Another thing is the lack of difference between all main challengers for the job, as they're all centre-right orthodox neoliberals in real terms, none of the above are going to change the economic path of Peru. That suits the real power in the country just fine (i.e. the dozen or so families that run the place), which means Guzman can slot right in if the great unwashed masses decide they want "change".
Anyway, bottom line is that Julio Guzman is brand new on the scene and as of this moment is to be taken seriously as a candidate. He is at least rattling the old guard, never a bad thing in my experience.
On the road
2/1/16
"There's no such thing as a bloody cat licence"
Dan Smith was jailed Thursday for not having a Gatineau licence for a cat he says isn’t even his.The 65-year-old retired refrigeration technician arrived at the Gatineau police station around 10 a.m.“I want to get this over with,” Smith said.“I’m turning myself in,” Smith told a woman at the front desk of the station. “I’m surrendering.”Smith has been chased for months by animal control officers and police in Gatineau over a $276 charge — fine and court costs — after being found guilty last summer of not having a licence for a cat, as required under municipal bylaw. Continues here
A good excuse to stick some Python on the blerg:
Chart of the day is...
...gold, weeklies:
Do not feed the animals (from IKN351)
The opening rant from IKN351, out yesterday.
Teach the bourgeois, and rock the boulevard
Some say I'm negative but they're not positive
But what I got to give? The media says this.
And be clear, just because they’re uneconomic now it doesn’t mean a sudden rise in gold makes them economic. If there’s one lesson you should take from the boom/bust era for the exploration mining sector, it’s that one. What the PM sector is crying out for isn’t big projects or high grade projects or low grade projects or cheap projects or expensive projects, it’s economic projects. A sudden spike in gold can outrun underlying costs on a temporary basis (we saw that in 2010) but by the time things such as build decisions are made the cost creep will be there in a whole bunch of things, from rebar to geologists to drilling contracts to the price of NaCN, not forgetting of course forex of other currencies against the dollar (gold is money, but you think gold goes up in US Dollar terms and other monies don’t, Mr. Goldbug?). And also remember that just because Metates (for one example of these never-gonna-happen projects) suddenly gets into a zone where it’s theoretically economic, there’s still a whole bunch of better projects waiting to be bought, developed and built. The way it works isn’t on an individual project level, it’s more like a sports league table and the best teams, the best projects, are the ones with the most points. Those are the projects and companies that are going to get bought first, long before the mid-table mediocrities or the moose-pasture relegation candidates find people sniffing around. Put another way, marginal projects stay marginal, even when the nominal economics make them theoretically possible during the possibility of a short window when gold price outruns underlying price inflation. That’s what the last few years should have taught us all. Or put yet another way, do you seriously believe Caspiche (XRC) gets built before Curraghinalt (DNA)? If not, why are you buying Caspiche with money you could dedicate to Curraghinalt?
It’s written by BS merchants. The whole mining commentary world is something forced upon me, not something I enjoy and as time has gone on I find myself reading less and less of the guff and nonsense that pretends to be sound advice, because it’s often anything but that. It normally takes prompts from third parties to get me to read “expert anal ysis” these days, such as the way this Cejay Kim article got to my eyes. But even among the mediocrity of the mining parasite world a special place in hell awaits the two-faced toerags at Palisade.
Cejay Kim is a product of the Casey Research school of copywriter bullshit, he knows exactly how to market to the mouth-breather end of the investor world, hit the greed button, sequins and dollar signs suddenly appearing before their eyes.
Palisade has two main arms and a couple of offshoots, such as the weird “Palisade Radio” thing, basically a podcast by any other name that also appears on Youtube. But the main parts are Palisade Global, which is an investment firm that provides solutions to companies in return for fees and Palisade Research, which is purportedly sellside-only. Ask Palisade about their set-up and they’ll tell you sophistic nonsense such as how Palisade Research offers investment ideas without paid motivation, while Palisade Global offers paid-for services.
Which means that our friend Cejay Kim can decide to put on his “Palisade Research” cap and pretend to offer conflict-free opinions while all the time he’s really employed by a company that takes cash from mining companies in order to promote them to you. If the combo of a person who learned his trade at Casey Research, is paid by mining companies who give his promotion company money for services, then pretends to write independently and without conflicts isn’t a very large red flag to you I still have that bridge for sale, just outside Brooklyn NY, viewings on request.
It spread to the point where I started to field questions. With the coverage it got, I found that not only was I told to go and read it by people, like me, were scoffing at the idea but also by people who were at least beginning to buy into the investment theory. Out of the blue late last week came a smattering of mails from certain people who, without citing the piece, floated the idea of buying these “out the money gold options” as a plausible investment theory. This annoys me because that means there’s not just a smattering but a whole bunch of people who have failed to learn the lessons, the hard jams, that Mr. Market has offered us these last few years. Hope is not a viable investment thesis. If you want to invest in the gold mining sector because you think gold’s going to appreciate I respect your opinion, but if you want to buy into the awful Livengood project (to name just one of many) because you know gold’s going to U$5,000/oz because Doug Casey’s “When Money Dies” theory isn’t dead like a Norwegian Blue parrot but just restin’...well it’s time to take a good hard look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself why you’re not as rich as Croesus yet after all that effort you put in over the last ten years.
But here’s the thing that bugs me the most. My real gripe about all this “optionality” thing is the question of wealth creation. I got into financial analysis a long time before I stumbled backwards into the mining sector, but since that accidental turn in my life (lucky or otherwise, the jury is out) the mining world has been a never-ending source of fascination for me. That’s for many reasons, but one of them is how you can have decent, upstanding people who work for the good of all in the same sector, the same boat, hell even in the same room as utter parasitical scumbags, complete sociopaths and dregs of society whose only ambition is to take money away from you.
Mining is a fascinating sector of industry because it has done and will continue to do a great deal of good for mankind. It contains the essence of entrepreneurship by which the brain of man can apply itself to something as common as hard rock and, if done right, create real tangible wealth from the process for that brain and for those around it. There may be equals to it (e.g. agriculture) but there is nothing more positively capitalist than the process of mining. I get accused of being a pinko lefty from time to time and I know my politics are social (lower case S) in flavour, but scratch the vote preferences away and I’m as strong a supporter of capitalism as you’ll ever find. When done right, its capacity to create wealth has been the single strongest driving force behind human development since at least The Renaissance (arguments to further back in history accepted), we should be proud of our small parts in this process.
But capitalism isn’t good or evil, merely a conduit for our own psyches. Pecunia no olet (money has no smell) said the Romans. Buying into this uneconomic gold projects argument doesn’t create any wealth at all. If you buy CKG at 50 and it goes to 80 you win 30, good for you, but that 30 hasn’t suddenly appeared from nowhere, stocks unlike economies are a zero sum game. On discussing this “It’s time to buy uneconomic gold companies” article with a couple of industry professionals, one of them hit the nail on the head by saying, “These guys pushing this strategy... are the same pundits that turn right around and bash the industry for not making any money, no retained earnings and buying shit assets”, and that’s exactly right.
Hey, all you disgruntled investors who are now waving your pitchforks at the TSX Venture exchange people, giving it the rowdy shout at the VRIC “Townhall Meeting”, let’s have the person there without sin casting the first stone. I’m not talking to the Venture Exchange, I’m talking to you, Venture Exchange investor. You want a “clean” exchange, you want to “get rid of the scams”, you want “the zombie companies” to die? Well stop feeding them! Enough is enough, turn your back on these crud projects inside crud companies run by crud managers for the benefit of their cruddy lifestyles.
If you want to get rid of the moose pasture peddlers, stop buying their stocks and stop giving the slightest credence to people like the ones working out of Palisade who’ll give you what they frame as independent advice while accepting their thinly disguised bribes from people inside worthless companies looking to sell you more paper. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 25 times, get a “valued client” special V.I.P. invitation to the PDAC lunch and a Christmas card from your broker every year, without fail.
Yes for sure a stock market that works and creates true wealth is a stock market that sponsors companies with real projects and lets the others die, so the TSXV has to get its house in order as well. But moaning at a townhall meeting isn’t going to do a jot of good if your eyes are still lighting up after reading two-faced BS merchants and their carefully crafted and lawyer-approved greed-gland material.
*According to this (5), which I haven’t checked and I’m not going to either, gold is the least of your economic concerns when it comes to seawater:
If you could extract gold to get just 2.5 ounces you would also get...7.3 ounces of lead, 7.3 ounces gallium, 36.5 ounces of mercury, 48 ounces of chromium, 68 ounces of silver, 13.6 pounds of copper, 13.6 pounds of tin, 15 .2 pounds of aluminum, 15.2 pounds of titanium, 28.8 pounds of Vanadium, 50.1 pounds of uranium, 51.6 pounds of iron, 100 pounds of Nickel, 152 pounds Molybdenum, 1.29 Tons of lithium, 22 Tons of silicon, 34 tons of boron, 121 tons of nitrogen, 212 Tons of Carbon, 2977 Tons of Potassium, 3121 Tons of calcium, 6865 tons of sulfur, 9796 Tons of magnesium.”