start here

start here

The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)


Djoker pocket catch

Much better than his comments on prize money in women's tennis:


The Friday OT: Yusuf Islam (Cat Stevens); Morning has broken

True Islam, a real Muslim:

Youtube link here. After a difficult week, it's worth recalling that religious extremism isn't confined to one religion. Also, that the vast vast vast majority of those who follow the religion behind ISIS are of the Cat Stevens/Yusuf Islam variety, not the warped and brainwashed. Or to quote the man himself...
"Many Muslims have come up to me, shook my hand and said, 'Thank you! Thank you.' I'm representing the way they want to be seen. So much of the middle ground gets forgotten in the extremities we witness around the world."


Chart of the day is...

...the gold/silver ratio...

...which enjoyed its few days under 80X but is now back in the world of cruel reality. Denial isn't a river in Egypt, silverbugs.

Don't smoke

Johan Cruyff was what happens when a supremely talented ballet dancer decides to take up football for a living. A sad day, 68 is way too early.

Lithium X (LIX.v): I knew I'd get one of these

This from reader "GW" tonight, with the extra special parts bold-typed and underlined by this humble corner of cyberspace:
Hi Otto,
Only recently found your blot... wish I had much sooner though. BTG looks like it was a great call.
I'm not an expert on these matters, but with respect to your latest LIX.V blog entry on Tim Young's shares... I notice the price is "deemed"... which I think means they were acquired for not-cash and that is just the market price on the date of the transaction... or some moving average.
I notice the numbers match up pretty good with these:
So... I am guessing he was somehow involved in the prior ownership of that property... though i also notice some company called Clayton Valley Something Something got shares at $0.15 during the first capital raise... so one would think that was somehow related to that property as well.
Anyways, to me not as bullish as it would have otherwise seemed... I think?
I know it's a garbage company, but I'm tempted nonetheless because it probably goes higher... it's one of the only pure lithium plays that doesn't have a ridiculous share count... or a huge market (deservedly so -- they have nothing!) but that means it can move.
Appreciate any further thoughts you may have.
At risk of repeating myself, one perspective on this is: it's not about being "right" (or righteous), it's about making money.

For the record, reader "GW", I'm sick to the back teeth with shits like you, you're a thousand times worse than the people you enable such as Giustra and represent everything that makes me vomit about the Canadian juniors scene. Go fuck yourself forever.


Agnico (AEM) doesn't write down a single dollar in its 2015 year end financials

Parrot time:

OT: The ISIS suicide bombing motivation loop

I'm guessing it works like this:

  • Target chosen, team picked and sent in to blow themselves up. All provided with explosive jackets etc. All briefed on their objectives together.
  • Post-briefing, main player (organizer, useful bomb maker, larger cog) taken aside and secretly told to dump vest and leave scene alive.
  • Operation goes ahead, all but one do their suicide bombing thing, one "has second thoughts" and dumps explosives.
  • Goes into hiding, massive search gets underway.
  • Perp eventually found and killed/arrested.
  • Top ISIS hierarchy use arrest as motivation for next attack team
  • Target chosen, team picked and sent in to blow themselves up. All provided with explosive jackets etc. All briefed on their objectives together.
  • Post-briefing, main player (organizer, useful bomb maker, larger cog) taken aside and secretly told to dump vest and leave scene alive.
  • Operation goes ahead, all but one do their suicide bombing thing, one "has second thoughts" and dumps explosives.
  • Goes into hiding, massive search gets underway.
  • Perp eventually found and killed/arrested.
  • Top ISIS hierarchy use arrest as motivation for next attack team.
  • Target chosen, team picked and sent in to blow themselves up. All provided with explosive jackets etc. All briefed on their objectives together.
  • Post-briefing, main player (organizer, useful bomb maker, larger cog) taken aside and secretly told to dump vest and leave scene alive.
  • Operation goes ahead, all but one do their suicide bombing thing, one "has second thoughts" and dumps explosives.
  • Goes into hiding, massive search gets underway.
  • Perp eventually found and killed/arrested.
  • Top ISIS hierarchy use arrest as motivation for next attack team.
  • Etc. 

Here ends the short reminder that there are stupid motherfuckers, there are fanatical motherfuckers, there are brainwashed motherfuckers. But look behind them for the truly evil motherfuckers of this world.

Canadian capital markets set to become a little more transparent on May 9th 2016

Good ol' Setty (the long-standing site pal) gives your humble scribe the heads-up on this article from Canadian lawyer people Bennett Jones, which summarizes the rule changes set to come in on May 9th in the Canadian stock markets. The rule changes are aimed at providing more transparency in the holdings, dealings and intentions of large company shareholders. You're strongly recommended to read the whole piece, but here's the summary paragraph which gives a taste of its contents:
"The Amendments will result in more accurate publicly available information regarding the holdings of significant shareholders by requiring such shareholders to report decreases in ownership. In addition, the Amendments will lead to a greater volume of early warning reports in light of such requirement. The enhanced disclosure requirements concerning an investor’s future plans and intentions should provide greater advanced warning to target boards about potential hostile take-over bids or attempts by activist investors or other shareholders to engage in proxy contests or otherwise influence the governance of the issuer. Investors will need to carefully consider whether securities lending arrangements or derivatives trigger a disclosure obligation under the early warning regime. The Amendments should provide greater market transparency but will impose additional compliance costs on investors filing early warning reports."

Overall a good thing, but Canada's capital markets still have a long way to go to distance themselves from the scumbags and shysters who abuse their system.

Lithium X (LIX.v): Tim Young joins the Giustra bullshit pump

Vancouver's....errr..."finest" queuing up to play this scam on retail with good ol' butter-no-melty-mouthy Frank. Filing today here.

Frank Giustra still hasn't given us the date on which he is singing "So Wrong" by Patsy Cline while wearing ladies undergarments in Robson Square, though. Thinking about going back on your word, Frank? My oh my now that would be a first!

The good news: An excellent buying window for miners is coming soon

And I'm going to start by reco'ing a junior exploreco on Sunday, one that's not already on the shopping list of The IKN Weekly. When the gold price finds its level I'll buy a few shares of this one too (but not until next week absolute minimum). A new name coming your way on Sunday, subbers.

The IKN Weekly, predicting gold's price action in February and March

Here's an example of what happens in the subscriber IKN Weekly, out every Sunday evening. This is how the (rather long) intro to IKN352 dated February 7th came to a close and as subscribers know well, I've put my money where my mouth is on this call these last couple of months.


Gold is going up due to its classic role as a fear trade. At other points in the cycle the flight to safety can be to the US Dollar because other things are spooking the market, but when it’s fear of jurisdiction deflation and dollar weakness itself (the spectre of negative rates in the background, jigging it along nicely) that is suddenly less attractive. So people are finally piling into gold.

THIS IS NOT GOING TO LAST FOREVER, SORRY TO BREAK THE BAD NEWS. Gold’s appreciation on the Fear Trade will last as long as the Fed says nothing about the change in direction which it will first jawbone, then announce formally. There is no way in the world that Janet ignores shouts of “One more raise and the market crashes” because the Fed never ignores these things, ever.

  • The new jawbone will come.
  • Then the subtle change of wording in a Fed presser will come.
  • Then the policy will be formalized.
  • Same as it ever was.

It’s why the microphone is given to the Doves and the Hawks in turn, it’s the reason Gary Tanashian over at Biiwii/NFTRH refers to it as the Kabuki Theater. When it does, the fear will subside and you’ll get those annoying “gold losing its lustre” headlines in the semi-comatose bizpress channels.

How long do we have for this gold ride? I don’t know, I’m guessing we get a few more weeks of bullish attitude towards the metal and I’m confident we’ll see North of U$1,200/oz, but that may turn out to be just a few days, I don’t know how panicky Janet and her pals feel right now. The advice therefore is to stay long gold stocks and add some more when you see fit, but don’t fall for all the To-Da-Moon-Alice narrative that’s equally as stupid on the other side of the shouting match. Gold’s move is welcome, but it’s not a straight flight to wonderland and the perfect day to cash in will be the day before the Fed makes its change in narrative clear. That’s virtually impossible to guess correctly so I’ll take the day after and the haircut that’ll come off the top of my paper winnings. I will not fight the Fed.

Finally and to be clear, all the above addresses how I see the near-term market for gold and precious metals. In the medium and long-term I’m as bullish as ever. To sum up, I see further upside in gold stocks, then a jag down at some point in “the next few weeks”, then a period of consolidation, then the return to gold price appreciation. So make the most of what the market is offering us at the moment.

Thank you, mouthbreathers

In last week's post "The IKN Mailbag Index(TM) is now signalling a near-term retraction in gold and precious metals stocks" we noted the sudden uptick in the plug dumb end of the metals investment sector writing into your humble scribe, indicating a top for gold. We ended with:
For the record I'm expecting far fewer mails next week, as the mouthbreather end of the casino will be too busy on their bullboards blaming the Bildebergs or Goldman or PTB or "them" for gold's sudden reversal.
IKN would like to point out that indeed, mails from the mouthbreathers have been very thin on the ground these last two days.

Further questions?

PS: Yes it's true, I am at my most annoying when I'm right. Well observed there, mouthbreather.


The fear trade

It can come across as archly crass to speak of hard-nosed money and number matters at times like these so let's state for the record, my heart goes out to Brussels today and I spit on the ignorant terrorist scum who murder for their ignorant dogmatic views.

It is said, now for another harsh fact: Gold has shown, time and time again, that geopolitical terror actions have a fleeting effect on its market price. Again today:

Which begs the question, if gold is "the fear trade", then what does it truly fear? Think about it enough and there's only one answer that ticks all the boxes; a weak US Dollar. 

Semi-OT: It therefore stands to reason that the correlation to gold and uranium is tighter than one might expect, just limit yourself to the uranium used in the US nuclear weapons arsenal.

Calibre Mining (CXB.v), the latest drill assay bullshit merchant

This morning Calibre Mining (CXB.v) gave us a NR on drill assay results from its JV project with Centerra, "Cerro Aeropuerto" and decided to use this headline:

"Calibre and Centerra Gold Drill 53.7 Metres Grading 10.47 g/t Au at Cerro Aeropuerto and Advance New Gold Mineralized Trends, La Luz Gold Project, Siuna, Nicaragua"

"Oh wow, 53m of ten gram gold! Great cut!", you may think., it's bull. Once you start reading the NR you get to see the cruel reality, as sketched out by the handy-dandy drill hole interval calculator:

That cruel reality is two skinny gold veins, then 50 metres of 1.75 g/t rock, all of that over 200 metres downhole. More smearing than the Papanicolaou department in a large city hospital. If you don't know that's uneconomic, stop trying to bet on junior mining now and put your cash in T-Bills. Or Bitcoin. Or uranium. Anything, just get yourself out of juniors now.

The good news about this is that we now know what type of crap CXB.v will pull in order to get you buying their shares and that means we can now put a big fat red line of crayon through their name and state "Do Not Touch These Bullshit Merchants With A Barge Pole", at least until they change their BS-peddling management team.

Do. Not. Feed. The. Animals. 

UPDATE post close. A chart:

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar index:

All I see is, aside from that single day July 2015 blip, is a whole bunch of higher lows dating back at least six quarters. To zoom in on the business end of the above chart, here are the hourlies:
Making America Great Again, or something.

Rubicon (RMX) files its annuals and... care about balance sheets now, yeah?

There was a weird pumpy spike in RMX a few days ago, which had me rather perplexed. The only possible reason for it is Greater Fool trading, this company's shares are going to plain zero. If you want an example of how a debt restructuring on the back of a large stream ends for the equity price, go back and see what Sandstorm did to Colossus.

The interesting endgame here involves the Canadian Pensions Fund CPPIB: It's easy to say that in hindsight were pretty darned stupid to lend RMX all that cash, but we're all wiser after events and that's done. No, the interesting bit is how they're continuing to be darned stupid by playing pretty-pretty with RMX and trying to work with this stone dead company. They need to stop the stupid and get to the front of the liquidation queue right now, as if they don't Royal Gold won't have a second thought about putting its large liability between them and their money. This is capitalism time, CPPIB, not pretty-pretty time.


The Kinross ( (KGC) Maricunga mine closed due to "Irreparable damage" to the environment

We threw out a quick shot on the story as it broke on Friday, but now we know a lot more about the reasons behind the closure of the Kinross ( (KGC) Maricunga mine in the Atacama region of Chile. Chile's main daily El Mercurio ran a long report on the situation yesterday and explained how Chile's Superintendency of the Environment (Superintendencia de Medio Ambiente, SMA) ordered the mine to close down its two water wells and from this, to stop all mining operations at its 1,100 employee mine.

Kinross has said it will appeal against the order and decision in the Chilean courtrooms, however El Mercurio nailed the moneyline quote from the SMA's Cristián Franz, who didn't mince words about the effects to the local environment caused by Kinross and its mine. 
"Faced with the seriousness of the events (and) the irreparable damage caused to a very fragile ecosystem, we have decided to apply one of the most severe sanctions considered under the law. From the point of view of environmental damage, we have found one of the most critical situations which has exceeded those we have seen previously."

The SMA directly blames the Maricunga mine for causing " irreparable environmental damage over 69.4 hectares of vegetation in the Valle Ancho marshland, located near the Nevado Tres Cruces National Park in Atacama region, a vast area where many vulnerable species such as flamingos, guanacos and vicuñas live". The closure notice was made in order to preserve another 73 hectares of the marshland that are under threat and to stop them from drying out in the same way as the irreparably damaged areas.

The SMA accuses Kinross of "Omission of execution of necessary actions to take responsibility for the unexpected environmental impact, consisting of the diminishing of the water table and the consequent drying out of at least 70 hectares of marshland...and the imminent risk of expansion of the affected area by another 73 hectares of marshland".

Global Mining Observer does Evy Hambro of BlackRock

Main man Alex W over at GMO has put together a real warts-and-all profile of BlackRock head honcho, Evy Hambro, with plenty of comment from his present and former colleagues. Highly worthy of your reading time this morning, Mrs/Ms/Mr Mining Person. Here's an appetite-whetter from the note:
In 2010, the mining markets were flying. BlackRock, the world's largest fund manager, was the largest equity investor in the mining industry, with assets of $39bn. Its top mining fund manager, Graham Birch, had an impressive track record, but in January 2010, Birch retired, and at the age of 37, Evy Hambro took control.

Six years later, almost all mining stocks have fallen, but some of Hambro's biggest bets have gone badly wrong. On top of London Mining's collapse, high profile investments in Glencore, First Quantum, Freeport and Nat Rothschild's failed coal float, Bumi, have all tanked in spectacular fashion. “Anglo American's the only bullet he's missed,” one senior analyst says.


The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN358 has just been sent to subscribers. Yet another close look at B2Gold ( (BTG) is the main dish of the day but after all the news and the price action we saw in that stock last week, I reckon it's justified this time.

An interesting tiny little exploreco comes up on the radar, too. Bet the jockey, I say.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are... reverse order:

Third Place: "Abitibi Royalites (RZZ.v): Glenn Mullan loses his cash cow...or not". It was close for third spot, less than 20 hits separating four posts, but this one sneaked onto the podium. Another example of junior mining mushroom politics.

Second Place: "The reason why the Vancouver newsletter tipsheet pumphouse community is pushing West Red Lake Gold Mines (RLG.v) at you this week". One of those three-line drive-by shooting posts that are zero content and say little or nothing of worth, but sometimes they'll take off and run. I wouldn't bother clicking through if I were you.

First Place: "OT: Michał Huniewicz takes photos of North Korea". I'm glad about this, because even though it was an OT post it was by far the best content of the week. Most popular by a mile, too. Wonderful sets of photos and insightful commentary snippets with each one. The train station shot is just wonderful.