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The second UK referendum vote to come

Things to consider:
  • Establishment will fight tooth and nail for the status quo, be in no doubt. That goes for the UK as well as the EU, both sets of damnfool idiots are now crapping themselves.
  • The UK looks set to disintegrate if Brexit happens, Scotland will want out and probably Northern Ireland too.
  • As nobody knows exactly how Article 50 works, it gives those in charge licence to make it up as they go along.
  • There's a whole wave of "oh no what have we done?" washing through the UK now, like a bad hangover.
  • A petition for a second referendum is already out there and picking up steam. 
  • Also, this.

Therefore it can work something like this:
1) UK triggers article 50
2) EU and UK thrash out a deal.
3) Deal includes referendum and waiver of article 50
4) UK puts it to the people, kinda "OK folks, this is the exit deal they've offered us, up to you to decide".
5) Bingo! A de-facto Brexit Part Deux. If it's rejected, UK stays.

For sure there are plenty of alternatives, you can probably improve the framework but it works as a starting point. It would also have the effect of keeping Scotland (and N.I.) in the UK until the vote is done, the thing that most scares the Brits today. Everyone gets to buy time, including President Boris who would be able to get the big job, trigger Article 50, get  a deal with the EU and offer it to a population who will not vote to break up their own country, no way José.

Your weekend math break

This is unmissable.

Promise me you'll watch just the first minute. From here.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are... reverse order:

Second Place: "Tweet of the day (UPDATED with UK Referendum news)". I wasn't planning on doing one of those liveblog things, it's all very old fashioned anyway in this thrusting age of social media, but that's how it turned out as the initial pro-Remain sentiment and polls were turned on their heads by the initial hard results, then my personal fascination on how the markets were being moved kicked in. Now we all know the result and Friday shifted the markets around, it's all past history.

First Place: "To clear up the Kirkland Lake ( mystery..." in which IKN revealed that KGI is after Wesdome ( Subbers knew WDO was being targeted en days ago, then who the suitor was last weekend. This was the public blog heads up and it got the suitable mountain of hits.

Dear Itinerant

Look, I know imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and all that. And you have a good turn of phrase, which I appreciate and it certainly helps sweeten the pill. And it's not direct lifting, you're adding your own thoughts. But all the same, it's starting to wear a little thin. 

That's enough for this time, I think. Feel free to mail.

UPDATE: Itinerant speaks, with the impressive count of seven first person subject pronouns in one short mail.

Dear Otto,
I read your blog most days and I like it for what it is. I also read and like a lot of other stuff, so don't feel too flattered.
In actual fact, I have sourced bits and pieces from your blog and have linked to it on those occasions; and I have recommended your blog to my readers on others.
However, if you think I am imitating you, then you are over-estimating your powers; rest assured I am happiest doing my own thing.
Keep up the good work & regards

Saucer of milk for table nine.


The Friday OT double bill: Monty Python and The Clash

This from the Holy Grail:

This live version of the Combat Rock track:

I dunno....just kinda thought it might be fun...nothing topical here...move along now...

(deep thanks to reader R)

Can only assume Andrew Kaip is shorting Sandstorm today...

...what with his 12 month U$4.50 target on the stock blown out the water so quickly:

Awaiting confirmation.

Instant karma

Two facts:
  • The London FTSE index has closed up 1.95% on the week. Yes, that says up.
  • The British Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to trade, but it's found its weekend level more or less. It's 5.5% down on the week.

In other words the UK internally, in British Pounds Sterling terms, feels a little better about itself financially this weekend than it did last weekend. But for the rest of us the United Kingdom is a cheaper place. Welcome to isolationism.

What gold is telling us today

Yes gold is up big and yes the main indexes are down big, but...

...this is no Black Friday.

Yes, negative 2% and negative 3% days on the broad market indices aren't a welcome sight (unless you're short) but they're nobody's idea of a crash, either. There's no need to panic. 

The major loss on all boards is that of the British Pound (GBP), which is also off its lows of 1.33 at the worst of the action (overnight Americas) but at $1.38 and bits is still down a record amount for a single day. That, along with the way that most other things are down but in an orderly fashion, suggests that it's the UK and the UK alone that's going to be hit by the longer-term effects of this Leave result. Whether or not that's true in the longer-term is up for debate, but that's the market thrust this morning and it makes enough logical sense, too.

Regarding racism and Brexit

Reader 'LJ' is a long-standing reader of IKN and we've exchanged many mails over the years. He wrote in this morning regarding Brexit and the previous post and included this line.
"My gut instinct would be to vote leave if I were in a Brit's shoes. No reason but nationalism. I'm all about self determination at nearly every level. I don't even know why, nor do I think about it much. But when I'm told I'm racist for holding that position, I can only shake my head. I know some racists hold the same view as me. They probably enjoy having 3 square meals, a good night sleep and a shower too."
That needed a reply and what's more, after reading a couple of other mails received this morning it's an issue that needs further clarification (if only to stop any more mails from coming in, so here's what I wrote back to LJ:
I've woken up to plenty of mails, yours is the one I'm replying to first.
No, nobody is saying you're a racist. What I'm saying, because it's true, is that the Leave campaign was co-opted by racists. Before Farage imposed his agenda on the larger Leave campaign they were losing clearly, it was roughly 46/54 in polling. When Leave changed tack in the last few weeks and began to use the UKIP campaign ideas, it rose in the polls. Farage and his party is a minority who swung the votes, perhaps 4% perhaps 10%, my best guess is 6% but he swung them all right.
So, in ballpark terms you have 46% of people who voted Leave for other reasons than plain straight racism. And 6% because they're xenophobic. I have no doubt in my mind that you belong to the larger group.
However, my vote was for the anti-vote of Remain because in deciding Leave, the UK has now empowered Farage to the extent that he will set public opinion. And i'm well aware of Godwin's Law but it needs to be said anyway; the rise of a certain political party from 1929 onwards began by their co-opting of the political mainstream as a small-scale minority party, coat-tailing itself into the debate by providing a small but necessary part of a large coalition.
UPDATE: We like this, from reader C:

Brexit, G.K. Chesterton and me

G.K. Chesterton once said, "The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land". Your author the British citizen says tonight that after being surprised to the core by a UK referendum result that he did not expect in the slightest and having stated with utter confidence that Remain would win for many weeks:

1) I was wrong
2) I've been away from the UK a long time.

As for a personal preference call on what's just happened, rather than my incorrect call on what I expected the UK as a country would do today, here's what was in last Sunday's edition of The IKN Weekly on that subject:

Just this Sunday morning I’ve been asked by mail for a personal call on Brexit, what I would like instead of what I believe will happen. While it’s all in my head here’s your post-script. At first I was pro-Remain out of political instinct more than anything else, then as the campaign unfolded and the Remain strategy of fear-mongering and dragging the debate down was rolled out I questioned that position and, somewhat to my own surprise after thinking things though more carefully, found I really didn’t care which way The UK votes. In the great scheme of things it doesn’t really matter much, it’s not fit to tie the shoelaces of Bastille Day, Pearl Harbor, August 6th 1945 or September 11th 2001. So for many weeks up until last Thursday I was a complete agnostic, but then this (1) event Thursday morning (not the terrible one of Thursday midday) changed my mind again and I saw that if I favoured Leave I would be lining up behind and empowering an overt racist in Nigel Farage and all who sail with him. Therefore my vote is an anti-vote, it’s to Remain in The EU because if not the ugliest side wins and my stars, they had to get pretty ugly to out-do the awful Remain people. If it weren’t for the rise of the far-right racism now driving Leave, I honestly wouldn’t give a damn who wins.

There's a lot of post-mortem talk today about the working class protest vote being the driving force of the Brexit result but let's be clear, plain straight racist propaganda helped tip the balance too. So even though it's now a foreign land to me there's no reason to return; why immerse yourself in ugly?


Tweet of the day (UPDATED with UK Referendum news)


That was posted by one Lewis Iwu, who is a public figure and not some anonymous troll (a TED Talk speaker too, it turns out) some 35 minutes BEFORE polls close in the UK Referendum vote. A nice little scoopette for Mr. Iwu.

PS: 4:02pm your author's local time, 10:02 UK time, polls are now closed. We should get the first of 400-odd 382 regional results trickling through in about two hours' time, with the bulk of them in about 4 to 6 hours' time. By midnight Americas time we should have a good idea about who's won.

UPDATE: 4:10pm Americas time: A reasonably reliable poll run by UK pollster Yougov, who interviewed 3,000 people today gives the following:

Remain: 52%
Leave: 48%

There is room for dissent on this exit poll as pollsters got the last big election result wrong (by underestimating the size of the Tory party victory). But assuming that was either an anomaly and/or polling companies have tightened up their game, a 4 point gap looks too big to cover by Leave.

UPDATE 2: IPSOS MORI are calling it 54/46, and then there's this, the British Pound (GBP) on the just-opened overnight trading counter:

Gold dropped U$6/oz at the open, too. Nuff said.

UPDATE 3: Two hours after the polls closed and suddenly it's all up in the air again. The whisper is that one of the first regions expected to give a result, Sunderland in the North-East of England, is going to be more pro-Leave than expected "by the models". Sunderland was expected to vote 53% Leave, 47% Remain, but the words doing the rounds is that it could be over 60% Leave! In other words, those polling results may be out.

UPDATE 4: The first result is in, it's from Newcastle where the polls suggested a comfortable win for Remain. In the end it was very tight, 50.7% Remain vs 49.3% Leave and this is what the British Pound Sterling did on the news:

It fell off a small cliff. The game is afoot!

UPDATE 5: And now there's REAL doubt in the air as the Sunderland region, which was expected to vote 53% leave by the poll models, gives its result of 61.3% Leave! The number of votes is small compared to the country total (51k Remain, 83k Leave) but the thing here is that if the poll models have got this one this wrong, what does that mean for the whole country?

The GBP hasn't fallen off a small cliff this time, it's a BIG one. Down 500 points in one fell swoop and at $1.43 and bits:

UPDATE 6: This is beginning to look like a knife-edge vote. Interesting to note how people in different parties in the pro-Remain and the pro-Leave parties have begun to attack each other. The classic sign of very nervy politicos. The pattern emerging is that working class areas are voting Leave more than expected.

The GBP has settled into a 1.45 / 1.46 range and can't decide which way to jump. As for gold...'s rallied U$23/oz to U$1273/oz, not shabby but in the event of a Leave win plenty of pundits have tossed about the U$1,400/oz number as a target. Remain was quoted at $1230 or $1250 typically, so there may be value in going long gold from here.

UPDATE 7: Gold just popped to $1279 and the nerves in the Remain campaign are now palpable.

UPDATE 8: Big news: LEAVE IS NOW BEING TIPPED TO WIN THE REFERENDUM BY MOST ANALYSTS. The British pound has dropped to $1.40. FTSE futures have dived 5% 6%.

The swing is being put down to a protest vote by lower socio-economic classes against the establishment (aka the peasants are revolting). This may be David Cameron's last day as British Prime Minister. Here's the Pound Sterling (GBP):

Holy crap. I haven't seen a major world currency do that since 1992.

UPDATE 9: The pattern continues of working class areas voting Leave in far heavier numbers than expected. The polling models seem to be getting it close in South and Midland England, but Wales, Northern England and Scotland are off by quite a distance. Wandsworth in London has just reported 75% remain and it's a big region too, so some hope for Remain suddenly. The GBP back up to $1.43 and gold's lost $10 of its gains, back to 1270....crazy crazy trading tonight.This guy explains it well:

In other words, a country split. Haves vs Have-Nots, North vs South, London vs The Rest, one major area of the country understood by the academics, the hinterlands ignored...and suddenly biting back. A fascinating evening.

UPDATE 10: At 3:15am in the UK Leave now being called a 75% probability. GBP down to 1.43. And now immediately 1.40. And now Sheffield, a big population region expected to have voted marginally to Remain, has voted marginally to Leave. This is looking very bad for Mr. Cameron's immediate job prospects.

UPDATE 11: The GBP now 1.35 and has registered its biggest ever one day move. As for gold, it's up over $1,300/oz but only just, which suggests that markets expect the fallout from this systemic shock to be contained to the UK.

UPDATE 12: Aside from the big drops expected in world markets tomorrow, with the FTSE futures now at -8% leading the way and the Nikkei's -6% a good indicator of the fun to come in Europe (and The Americas), we may be witnessing the end of The United Kingdom. Ireland's Sinn Fein party has called for a referendum on the reunification of Ireland. At virtually the same time, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) has called the majority vote of Scottish people to remain in the EU against the UK's overall decision to leave a "constitutional crisis" and that Scotland was being "dragged out of the EU against its will". If those go, you're left with just England and Wales.

Will David Cameron ultimately be remembered as the man who killed a country?

And as for gold:


In The IKN Weekly out this weekend... long as Leave doesn't win in the UK tonight, issue IKN372 due out Sunday evening will have a new spec buy on a LatAm-based junior. 

Happy to say this one's a fairly straightforward story too, boils down to "buy low sell high" on a clearly undervalued company and helps explain what was bouncing round my head while putting together that semi-serious flow chart yesterday (which is on course to be the most viewed post of the week, by the way). I don't own any shares of it yet but plan to buy next week.

Wesdome ( has been doing some serious volume recently

Hey, wonder why that is?

Anyone? Any ideas? You at the back?

Bobby Genovese looking to re-float Liberty Silver in September 2016

That moment when the bull market becomes the bullshit market, as word reaches IKN that Bobby Genovese, the pump and dump scamster behind the Liberty Silver rip-off, is now looking to re-float his worthless company and try to sell the 80% of its shares that he now owns. He's been pestering all and sundry for ideas on who could be his new CEO (and other officers), but so far nobody worth mentioning has been stupid enough to risk their reputation even by being seen in the same room as him, let alone take over the reins of his next scam. 

Bobby must be getting a bit low on cash, because he's trying hard to push this forwad and wants the company back up, running and with a full promo push BS newsletter campaign by September. This humble corner of cyberspace suggests he contact Tommy Humphreys at, as it's already well proven that he's willing to do anything for money.

Brexit as a political issue is not going away

As I write, the UK polling booths are open and citizens of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are voting on whether to leave or remain in the European Union. We know turnout is going to be high, we also know that most polls have Remain in a slight lead, plus the movements of sensitive financials such as Pound Sterling and gold indicate that the market expects a Remain win.

Okay, blah blah out the way, now for the point of this post. Whatever the result is, don't think for a minute that it's the last time you're going the hear the archly annoying invented word 'Brexit' (Brangelina! Swiftleston!) in your lives. Oh no, these idiot politicos aren't going to let you off that easily.

First the obvious one (which at this time looks less likely but we need to cover it): If the UK votes Leave, the European establishment (both mainland and inside the UK) will try every trick in the book to stop the will of the people from becoming reality.

Second the more likely scenario today, a tight win for Remain. The pro-Leave camp in the UK will not stop just because they lost by a couple of percentage points, there's political capital to be made here. Plus, the event of a tight win will weaken the leadership position of PM David Cameron, the man foolish enough to have dragged his country into this referendum in the first place. Back then, both he and Europe in general thought it was going to be a shoo-in vote, so even if the vote narrowly favours Remain there are a lot of EU bigwigs that have had the fright of their political lives these last few weeks. Yes, bigger than Greece and all that malarkey, the UK votes out and the likelihood of the whole EU structure falling to bits increases greatly (a point for another day).

Which brings the final point: If we assume 1) a narrow Remain result and 2) a  David Cameron who will have to fight for his leadership position afterwards, he's going to go back to the EU grandees (start with Angela) in the weeks to come and say "more concessions please", particularly ones on the topic that nearly lost them the vote, that of immigration, or else he's going to be replaced by a harder line leader (Gove? Boris? May?) who will put them through this rack all over again.

Brexit is now an active political weapon that the UK can and will use against the EU to get what it wants. Last time around, before the vote date was set, Cameron got a weak looking set of concessions from the EU. Next time around he'll get a LOT more thanks to his new nuclear option threat. So whoever wins today, Brexit is now 'a thing'.


How to buy mining company stocks: An IKN flowchart

All you need to know to become a successful investor, in one easily understood visual guide:

Colombia: Cease fire

The best news out of Colombia. Tomorrow Thursday, the government of Colombia and the FARC-EP are set to announce a formal, bilateral and definitive cease-fire.

Read about it in real media, not IKN. Heads-up on the historic moment complete.

UPDATE: The Graun has an English language report that covers all the main parts. Here's how it starts:
The Colombian government and leftist Farc rebels have announced that they have reached a deal on a bilateral ceasefire that would be the last major step toward ending one of the world’s longest wars.
President Juan Manuel Santos will travel to Cuba on Thursday for the announcement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or Farc.
The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, announced he would also be present to witness the signing of the deal.
Full report here. The book is now closed on the next Nobel Peace Prize winner.

I can't resist it any longer: Messi's free kick goal from last night

Reasons why this post shouldn't exist:
  • I stick too many Messi goals on this blog anyway.
  • I'm a total cliché fanboy and it must get boring.
  • IKN is supposed to be about money and mining and juniors and things, right?
  • Argentina only won the semi-final, this kind of fandom can put the kibosh on the final.
  • We don't even know who they play in the final yet (for the record "Go Chile", I want LatAm's most "beautiful game" teams up against each other again).

But screw it, this goal is just too screamingly good. This sort of placement at speed is off-scale footballing brilliance and it's good to share the good things in life.

And Leo is now Argentina's all-time top scorer thanks to it. Cherry on cake. Youtube here 

PS: Those USA soccer fans tuning in shouldn't be too upset about yesterday; no team could have lived with Argentina the way they played last night and Jurgen's guys put up a spirited and positive performance. It was particularly impressed with the way they came out at the start of the second half and pushed up, took a strategy risk and pressed Argentina...that's gutsy footy.

Twas the night before Brexit and all through the house...

...not a Tier One was stirring, not even a and I can't make a snappy rhyme so I'll leave it there. But the point is made and it's interesting how gold bullion, rather than the GBP/USD pair, has come forward as the most sensitive reading of tomorrow's UK Remain/Leave referendum. With things as they are... best guess is that most of the "Remain will win" assumption is now baked into the gold price. For sure we're likely to get a spike down assuming that win is confirmed by the votes, but I'd also bet that buyers will be waiting for just that type of limbic reaction and once things settle, U$1,250/oz looks roughly correct, ceteris paribus. It therefore stands to reason that the market shock potential is to the upside and Leave result. If The UK decides for Brexit, gold is going to have one ass-ripper of a rally and there are enough serious goldwatchers* out there calling U$1,400/oz as a target for it to be credible.

But today is set to be one of those nervy-quiet days. The big bets are already laid, the only moves and chatter will come from people like me, inconsequential scribbles in the margins.

*Did you just read someone's article on gold that included exclamation marks? Well, bless you and bless her/him too.


To clear up the Kirkland Lake ( mystery...

...of why George Ogilvie "was resigned" by Eric Sprott and Tony Makuch poached from Tahoe Resources (TAHO) ( to take over, it's really pretty straightfoward. Eric wants KGI to buy Wesdome (, Ogilvie refused to play ball, Eric got Makuch in to execute the plan. It's not a question of whether KGI buys WDO, it's when. And by the way, I called buy on the stock last Wednesday in a Flash update for subscribers and in IKN371 out last Sunday explained all the backstory. So yeah, I'm long WDO.

The problem with this kind of thing is that the Canadian brokerage world are all knowledge-is-power and want to keep info of this type away from us retail grunts. As a result, they get mightily pissed with this humble corner of cyberspace for blurting out the truth. There are plenty of people in the upper echelons of the Canada Mining World who know all the above and have already positioned (note the way has traded against in the last five days for an example), but they don't like it when their dirty little secrets are washed in public before the fact because perhaps one of these fine days, when the BCSC and IIROC finally grow a pair, the regulatory authorities might look at their trading patterns, see how they profit from all this illegal inside information and throw the lot of them in jail for a while. Well, they probably won't because the Canadian authorities are and will forever be a bunch of paid-off whusses, but there's no harm in living in hope.

Copper production in Peru set to move up sharply

The latest Peru Central Bank (BCR) report on the state of the metals mining industry in the country lays out expected production increases in the country's major metal, copper:

Those aren't pie-in-sky figures either, that's predicated on baked in growth starting with Las Bambas and the Cerro Verde expansion, with increments in other major mines expected too.

Chart of the day is...

...the British Pound Sterling (GBP) versus the US Dollar (USD), five day chart:

A 4.3% rally in a top five currency against the world's number just three days? It's almost as if the market is baking in some future event or something...

Happy New Year number 5524

Happy Andean New Year number 5,524 to you all, known as Machaq Mara in the Altiplano of Peru and Bolivia. Evo Morales should be hanging at Tiahuanaco around now.

Have a good year.

Subscription rules

Reader "C" gives us a little more about the wonderful world of Porter Stansberry and Doug Casey:
"When you want to subscribe to Casey you can do this via Internet easily from all over the world. When you want to unsubscribe (I have to confess that I did not know I still had this subscription and now saw it on my CC bill) you suddenly need to call them... Now I have to reactivate my Skype credit..."

Shocked. Shocked ah wuz. Though we should add that if this is the type of thing you don't notice on your credit card account you really don't have that much to worry about in life.

OT: The Block

I didn't watch game seven. Although I'm not averse to watching a game or two on occasion, including my daughter in her school team (she's not bad, thanks for asking) I'm not a basketball fan and my appreciation of the sport is strictly amateur hour.

But I know sporting greatness when I see it, my stars. 

Lionel Messi scoring that goal against Getafe. Roger Federer nailing that between-the-legs winner to set up a Grand Slam match point. Secretariat in the Belmont (2:24!), Dancing Brave in the Arc ("But here comes...!"). You Gretzky or Jágr people will have your cherished moments, you Tiger or Golden Bear people others. The list goes on, they are the reason we adore watching all sports, those moments when it transcends to art and leaves us breathless.

LeBron, stand up.

Taken from this Youtube, sent to IKN Nerve Centre this evening by a kindred spirit who will remain nameless. LeBron James, sir, I doff my cap. True sporting beauty.


I think we can safely assume that George Soros...

...has taken profits on his recent long position in gold:

'Brexit would trigger sterling fall worse than Black Wednesday' 
George Soros warns devaluation would be more disruptive than when UK dropped out of Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992

Report here.

Chart of the day is..., dailies:

What if I told you Brexit was never that important in the first place?


The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN371 has just been sent to subscribers. An actionable edition and fun was had putting the main piece together.


How Agora copywriters trick you into buying their worthless products

On Saturday morning, A. Reader forwarded me the latest piece of guff and nonsense out of Porter Scamsberry's Agora house of trickery. The mailer was called "Watch This", it was distributed out of Casey Research and here's a screenshot of the top of the mailer:

It then goes on, the usual greed-gland marketing hard sell style, with the finishing flourish at the end just before your video of two serious white males talking to each other about very important things

Again that's just a screenshot (I'm not giving these fools free click-thrus). My mailer friend's only comment on forwarding the guff was, and I quote, "Iron-clad this time for sure", which got me thinking. So for once, instead of just ignoring it or throwing back a two-word snarky reply I wrote back and here's that mail (with just the "hello" bit at the top snipped off):

"...the copywriters who work for these shops have the game down to an art. Consider this one...

"...James Dale Davidson gives iron-clad evidence that the stock market will collapse by as much as 70% by summer’s end"

What's iron-clad? The brain is led to believing the iron-clad thing is the upcoming crash. That's not what the sentence says. The iron-clad thing is the evidence that James Dale Davidson will offer you. You then need to consider the word "evidence", because it's one of the favourites of these copywriters. What does "evidence" really mean compared to its image? Evidence is connected in the brain to truth and proof, but in this case it's merely going to be a subjective opinion. That's also evidence and the word is being used correctly, but copywriters love it so much because it conveys a different image

And then this one is another beauty:

".... I am willing to guarantee that I can show our viewers how to make 1,000% in gains over the next year."

Thousands of people will read that and think "He's guaranteeing me a 1000% win!". But look again, what exactly is he guaranteeing? Yup, he's guaranteeing that he can show you something. No more, no less. 

Just one small example of how copywriters at these BS-peddling shops like Agora and Casey Research work your vertical hairless monkey brain.