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12/31/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order (it's back):

Third Place: "New Nadina Explorations (NNA.v): It took 40 days". It's going to be fun on Tuesday. The only question remaining is how long the fellow FindTheLady stock Garibaldi can keep its subterfuge going in 2018. What with it being a far more sophisticated scam, I'm guessing around six months.

Second Place: "Can you see the moment...". The legendary legend, Brent Legend Cook, speaks. We the adoring flock hang upon his every word. Amen.
 
First Place: "Ten random predictions for 2018". Always a popular one, but do like I do and don't take it too seriously.

12/30/17

New Nadina Explorations (NNA.v): It took 40 days

Remember this post back on November 20th? The one pointing out the New Way Of Doing Business in the junior world by bamboozling a bunch of idiots with more money than sense. Garibaldi (GGI.v) had set the ball rolling Back on November 20th and here's how it worked, according to the post that day:
1) Quietly talk up drilling results as they happen. "Hey there, I've heard that..."
2) Get the dumbass end of the mining world vomiting in chatrooms about the "next Voisey's" or whatever other phrase to get the circlejerk underway
3) Release a cherrypicked photo or two. Fapfest
4) Stoke up the tension for weeks. Fappity fappity
5) Run a placement and fill coffers. Ka-Ching!
6) Finally release an assay that doesn't live up to the hype. Oh.
7) Keep em hanging on with "Not our fault it's cold in the winter, next year gonna be (etc)".
In that post we then noted how New Nadina (NNA.v) had taken up the challenge. At that time they'd checked off the first three, numbers four and five were in progress, six and seven labelled "coming soon". Here we are just 40 days later and we're up to point six already. They stoked the tension, they filled coffers via a placement and last night (the freakin' night of a long weekend Friday, fercryinoutloud!) the cold dose of reality hit:
"From 663.35 to 809.35m (145.98m total including 13m of barren dykes) the average metal values are 8.0 g/t Ag, 0.10 g/t Au, and 0.06% Cu."

Yup, it seems as all those photos don't count for excrement after all....who knew assays occasionally fail to live up to expectations? WHO KNEW???

LET US BE CLEAR: This is a scam and it is bring run at you by liars and thieves. Even the most stupid (or "forgiving" if you insist on being utterly naive) among this audience has to acknowledge that sneaking this type of megafail assay NR in late night Friday December 29th is its own message.

By the way, on the day of that original post Garibaldi (GGI.v) had just dumped 20% on receipt of crappy drill results and was a $3.95 stock at the close. Today it's another 37.7% lower at $2.46. Hey GGI True Believer dumbasses...just sayin'.

12/29/17

The Friday OT: The Beach Boys; Good Vibrations

I heard it again a couple of days ago, a stereo version through a great speaker and it was like hearing it for the first time. It's the difference between hearing a song from time to time all your life, but one fine day actually and finally listening to it. Still impressive 50 years on, it must have been brain-shattering back then.




Youtube here.

Arb on LIX now >10%

An 11% arb on a cash offer: Buy it for $2.35 and sell it for $2.61...what could possibly go wrong?



LIX is trading strangely and when you consider the people behind this show, that's not a good thing at all. And it'd hardly be the first time a Chinese company decided to "revise" its offer for a Canadian junior (ask Henk van Alpen for more details).

The US Dollar

A very interesting end of year for the USD index:


12/28/17

There will be no posting on this blog today

For secret reasons.

12/27/17

Can you see the moment...

...when Brent Cook mentioned Tinka Resources (TK.v) on BNN TV?



Yup, me too. Check out the segment here. Cookie Monster starts at minute 16.

Ten random predictions for 2018

Here we go with the IKN Never-Fail Forecasts* for the year to come. As per the last five years we're sticking to the same general format and a mix of financial, politics and sport. After scoring 5.5/10 in 2013, 6/10 in 2014, 5.5/10 in 2015, 6/10 in 2016 and a pathetic 1/10 last year (the copper call the only one I got right) I need to buck up my ideas for the year ahead, but as always we don't take this too seriously and part of the fun is to go for some outsiders, a left-field call or two that will be tough to nail.

*some restrictions apply

So to business:
1) Gold to break over U$1,400/oz in 2018. It's a slight cheat of a call, because it's exactly the same as the one that didn't make it last year. But it's my game so bite me. The thinking behind it is of a metal that will do well enough in the year without knocking it out the park. It won't live up to the crazy numbers that the rabid end of the goldbug world will start vomiting at us mid-year.
2) Copper to break U$3.75/lb. The run put in by the world's most important metal commodity was good in 2017, but it's only just begun.
3) Silver to break over U$20/oz in 2018. It's The Jekyll and Hyde metal has spent literally years in the doghouse, ignoring the pump boys in fine style, but we're now moving into macroeconomic conditions that truly benefit both sides of its demand make-up.
4) Barrick to buy Detour Gold. This year's traditional left-field M&A call. At some point ABX will be too pissed about NEM holding the number one spot not to expand, plus it'll be in a rising gold price environment.
5) Andrés Manuel López Obrador to become the next President of Mexico. It'll be third time lucky for AMLO, who will at first cause "OHMAHGAWD COMMIE!!" scare headlines in the English speaking dumbo media, but El Peje won't be that bad for the country or its FDI.
6) Mercedes Araoz will become President of Peru in 2018. It might be via a back door and it might or might not be just temporarily, but she'll make it there and become Peru's first ever woman President.
7) Iván Duque to become the next President of Colombia. This one is a VERY tough call, as even though it's late December and the election is set for late May there field is still large and the race wide open. Duque is by no means guaranteed to make it as a candidate on vote day either, the right wing coalition has to choose its candidate from three parties and he's only one of those. But as it's going to be a very important election for the whole region, I'm going to stick my neck out and call it for the Uribistas.
8) Peru to make the last 16 at the 2018 World Cup Finals. They have a tough group (France, Croatia, Oz) and it's the first time they've been at the WCF for 36 years, but I've watched in amazement the way in which Gareca has taken a bunch of egos and turned them into a efficient and dangerous country team. Now that Paolo Guerrero isn't barred from Russia, I'm tipping Peru as the surprise package of the sporting world's biggest event in the next 12 months.
9) Argentina to win the 2018 World Cup Finals in Russia. Yes I know  Brazil is currently head-and-shoulders over the other LatAm teams. Yes I know Germany are worthy faves. Yes I know Argentina only just scraped into the WCF. I don't care. In Leo We Trust.
10) Coco to win Best Animated Film at the 2018 Oscars. Have you seen this jewel yet? It's not just the best animated movie of the year, it's one of the best ever made. Loving Vincent will appeal to the Oscar judges for its artistic input, but Coco is astoundingly good for its genre. 

There you go, our Ten For The Prize in 2018, expect the usual postmortem post around next Christmas.

What a post-tax loss selling stock looks like

A show and tell session, the example being Atico Mining (ATY.v):


Suddenly the sellers dry up and anyone wanting in has to pay up. Volume is light but that's normal, too.

PPK replacing his Interior Minister today...

...with a complete nobody, because any real candidate in their right mind wouldn't take a job on his sinking ship. Anyway, the ceremony is at 1pm or so local time, about an hour and a half from now. We might get some other minor ministerial changes as well.


12/26/17

The Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to) rally continues

While the rest of the world tucks into turkey curry/sandwiches/fritters/soup/mayosalad, Sandstorm keeps rocking higher in NY trading today.



That's a new 52 week high, close to its three month average volume too. Santa bringing pressies to Nolan.

Reality bites: Results of the IKN "Ten random predictions for 2017"

On December 29th 2016 we ran our annual "Ten random predictions" post for the year ahead, the usual mix of biz, politics and sport that blend serious and left-field calls that we don't expect to become reality. Here we are at the back end of 2017, it's time for the results so here below come the original calls, the result and the score for each call (1 for a win, 0.5 for "close enough for my taste", big zero for anything else). And by way of reminder of previous years' results:
  • In 2013 we scored 5.5/10
  • In 2014 we scored 6/10
  • In 2015 we scored 5.5/10 
  • In 2016 we scored 6/10
...which means that up to now at least, we've been consistently mediocre. On with the show:
1) Gold to break through U$1,400/oz in the course of 2017
SCORE: 0 point: It broke U$1,350/oz at the start of September, but that's all she wrote on a gold price that was largely range-bound and revolved around the U$1,250/oz line all year. Close I suppose, and the bar was set deliberately high, but a failed call is a failed call.

2) Copper to break through U$3.10/lb this year
SCORE: 1 point: A win! It seems to easy in hindsight, but back in late 2016 we had the world convinced that copper had put in its run and Codelco, BHP, CESCO and all other sources of expertise were predicting a $2.50/lb average for 2017. I win.

3) Uranium will finally put in a rally and move back above U$30/lb
SCORE: 0 point: It got to $25 or $26 on that recent pop when the Stans closed down part of their production, but since then it's dropped back again. No good call
4) Goldcorp (GG) to merge with Agnico Eagle (AEM)
SCORE: 0 point: One of those I don't expect to come in, but pick anyway. And the way things are going, it'll be Agnico picking up Goldcorp soon, not the other way round. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

5) Colombia to become the LatAm mining success story of 2017
SCORE: 0 point: Errrr...massive fail. Arguably the regional winner was Ecuador (easy to jump low-set barriers), but Colombia was the pick and the country went from bad to worse. Local anti-mine referendums, enviro opposition, a government that can't legislate itself out of a plastic bag.

6) Venezuela's government to implode.
SCORE: 0 point: For a while back there the call looked good, but Maduro rode out the the rough period, cracked down on anyone daring to use freedom of speech and then the oil-hungry Chinese rode in and bailed the country out financially, with all signals that they'll keep on doing so in the future if necessary.

7) Mauricio Macri and his government to lose heavily in the Argentina mid-term elections
SCORE: 0 point: Another massive failed call, Macri's Cambiemos party did well and has now given him a true mandate to push through on his reform package. Argentina still isn't out of the woods and its reputation as a permanently FUBAR nation is well deserved, but if the government can do a better job against the stubbornly high inflation rate and keep a lid on the worst of the social protests, there's light at the end of the tunnel. As for Cristina, she will now play out her days as a semi-important character in Congress.

8) Juan Martín Del Potro to win at least one Grand Slam tournament in 2017
SCORE: 0 point: Oh Delpo...again suffered from that iffy wrist early season, came back and was firing at perhaps 85% come the US Open (his best chance), but it wasn't to be. However hope springs eternal and if Roger and Rafa can do it in their mid-30s, so can The Tandil Tower.

9) Barcelona to win the 2017 Champion's League and Spanish Primera double
SCORE: 0 point: Yup,it's another fail. It was a hard call at the time (Barsa trailed Real by a distance last Xmas) so I was't expecting it. One lives in hope and dies smiling.

10) The UK will not invoke Article 50 before the end of March 2017
SCORE: 0 point: And to close out a pathetic year of prognostication, yet another fail. Brexit is coughing and spluttering, the UK parliament now has something akin to a veto vote on the whole shebang come 2019, public opinion in the UK has now moved against leaving the EU...but a call is a call and that one above was blow out the water in due style in March.

And so...roll on the drums...

GRAND TOTAL: ONE OUT OF TEN. Oh my stars, what a waste ground!Now I don't take this thing too seriously and obvious pick a few left-field and hard to kill predictions, but that's a sorry and embarrassing score, light-hearted or not I hand my head in shame.

However, it's not going to put me off :-) and the next edition of the annual predictions will make it to the blog in the next couple of days. In the meantime, feel free to throw cabbages and rotten tomatoes my way.

12/24/17

Merry Christmas, one and all

Have a great day.

PPK pardons Alberto Fujimori


On medical/humanitarian grounds, PPK has just given a pardon to ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Here's the official letter:


Merry Christmas, war is over, if you want it.

PS: Now the fun REALLY begins. Expect ministerial resignations and a real clusterfark in Peru over the next few days. 

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN449 has just been sent to subscribers. A reduced-volume edition, but still time to consider the new news in Sabina and Sandstorm.

12/23/17

The five most popular Friday OT posts of 2017

We reach the end of 2017 and though there's still one Friday OT to go (Dec 29th), we're drawing a line under the year's end-week music posts with the traditional Top Five most popular of the year, as voted by your clicks. You can revisit any of the posts by clicking on the title below:






Very happy with your number one choice that went up at the end of March, it's ear heaven so thanks for that (it won by quite a distance). Second place went to a topical song posted on February 20th and darnit....what happened that day? Third place to my favourite female voice in the world and the very first Friday OT of the year, way back early January. Fourth place, a fanfave that was featured just a couple of weeks ago and lastly, Cuba's finest.

12/22/17

The Christmas 2017 Friday OT: Nils Frahm; More

For the second Christmas in a row, we eschew the normal festive songs (we ran Robert Earl Keen and his famous one for years, you may remember) and go for something just as apt but with a higher level of musical beauty. Nils Frahm, More, a thing of wonder.



Youtube here. Wishing all IKN readers a very Merry Christmas.

On Kitco now: "Vote Now For Mining CEO of The Year"

Click here to go to the 2017 Kitco "Mining CEO of the Year" poll and put in your votes for the best of the illustrious band of Godlike creatures and their magical performances in the year just wrapping up. Of course you can vote for whoever you want, but this humble corner of cyberspace suggests the following 12 mining company CEOs as true examples of what leadership in this industry really means.

Names presented in alphabetical order of companies (to keep it fair) and price charts YTD of each company are compared to the Gold & Silver Index (XAU).

Peter Breese, CEO Asanko Gold (AKG):


Shawn Wallace, CEO Auryn Resources (AUG.v):


Peter Tagliamonte, CEO Belo Sun (BSX.to):


Paul Martin, CEO Detour Gold (DGC.to):


George Burns, CEO Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to):


Amir Adnani, CEO Goldmining Inc (GOLD.v):


Paul Andre Huet, CEO Klondex Mines (KDX.to):


John Lewins, CEO of K92 Mining (KNT.v):


Rob McEwen, Head Shareholder (or whatever he calls it) of McEwen Mining (MUX)


Joseph Conway, CEO of Primero Mining (P.to):


Ian Slater, CEO of Red Eagle Mining (R.to):


Ron Clayton, CEO of Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to):


Don't delay, vote today! Here's that link again.

HIVE on Bloomberg

An interesting article on Bloomie today, which doesn't get to the central points of the way Frank Giustra runs his scams but does at least scrape at its surface:
"While Hive has been a hit with investors, the company’s paid promotion wasn’t fully disclosed by the company and promoters. And just days before Hive got started by taking over a listed shell company in June, millions of shares in the shell traded hands without a disclosed price, as required by securities rules. Hive says it was a private transaction involving a predecessor company, and that it meets all disclosure requirements."

For your information Bloomie, the ex-directors of Leeta (now HIVE), Addie and Berusch, sold their tens of millions of shares to Giustra and his cronies (Bri-Bri, Tommy Humphreys, Pokrandt, Ameduri etc etc) for 1.5c and 2c. You are right in stating that Giustra and his cronies didn't disclosure this correctly. However, the reason why the BCSC will not disclose the illegal trade and its attached paperwork is that the heads of the BCSC are corrupted, in cahoots with Giustra and have been paid of in cash.

Anyone trading on a Giustra pump needs to know the "heads I win tails you lose" world into which they are stepping. Anyway, go read the Bloomie piece, it's pretty good as far as it goes and does at least shine a small light on these cockroaches.

Regarding asset classes

An asset class is an end, it is not the means to an end.

Bricks, timber, copper (wires or tubes) etc are not asset classes. But put those means to an end together in the right way and build a house . An end product, you have yourself an asset class (which in fact implies the pure asset class is land, but let's not dwell on details).

Bonds and treasury papers are asset classes. For sure they're tradable, but the underlying reason for them is to buy, own, then collect the currency they throw off. They're an end product.

Equally, gold is an asset class. You may not like the idea of digging something up from out the ground, making it pure, turning it into blocks and then burying it in the ground again (this time under lock and key) but plenty other people do (including central banks). The reserve status of gold is why it has remained popular since hunter-gathering went out of fashion.

Bitcoin is not an asset class, just look at the chart. When people are eager to exchange dollars for something (while going up) and now desperate to exchange that something for dollars (on the way down), which is the asset and which is the vehicle for a trade?

So you can think what you like about the wonderful new world of crypto, but stop all this nonsense about it being an asset class. And remember the name of anyone trying to sell you on the concept, as they know not of what they speak.

12/21/17

Peru: PPK survives

After a 14 hour debate, just a couple of minutes ago Peru's congress voted 79 for, 19 against and 21 abstentions on the de facto impeachment of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

As the FORs needed 87 votes (2/3rds majority) for the motion to pass, it means PPK survives and is still President of Peru.

The latest Global Mining Observer is out...

...and as usual, GMO is packed to the rafters with fun stuff. Top pick article for my taste is this one, an interview with Nick Mather of SolGold (SOLG). Check it out by clicking on this link right here.

GMO: Mining for the erudite.

Zinc One (Z.v): Daniel "Davidoff Cigar" Ameduri is having erection problems

Dannyboy has a problem with his BS paid pump on Z.v, it seems to be going down, which probably wasn't his gsmeplan. You just can't get it up, can you Dannyboy?

The countdown to May 13th and the closure of Future Money Trends is on. Enjoy 2018.

The most concerning part of the Novo Resources (NVO.v) NR today...

...for longs at least (I'm strictly neutral and hold no position at all) is this line:

KX078, a 356 kg bulk sample collected from conglomerate 40 cm above the basal contact, was determined to have a calculated head grade of 1.3 gpt Au

That suggests widths are going to be an issue.

Anyway find the NR here. And it's a good job of work this NR too, one cannot fault the company for lack of information (the True Believer GGI fools might want to reflect on that).

Whether or not there's a mine here is a different question for another day, today is all about the justification of NVO's current market cap. I wish you good fortune from the sidelines.

Peru politics showtime

Today Thursday it goes down for real, as Peru's Congress first debates on and then votes on what is basically an impeachment against President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. This week has already been a fascinating one in the country for LatAm political junkies, capped off last night when PPK appeared on Peru TV with his two Vice-Presidents and upped the ante, saying if he was thrown out neither would accept the job of Prez, but today is going to be even better.

There's a whole lot of subject matter here and this short post won't go into it all (it would take a book), so I'm going to keep it to the most basic of basics:
  • The debate on the motion starts this morning and is likely to go on all day. PPK and his Veeps will be there to present their defence (hilarity will ensue).
  • If 87 of the 130 members of Congress vote against PPK, he's thrown out today.
  • According to PPK himself, he doesn't think the opposition has the 87 votes (and sounded pretty confident about it this morning, too).
  • However, even if he survives today he's still a very weakened President and it would only take another small shove (e.g. from a guy named Jorge Barata or new details from the previous Maiman closed confession) to push him over the cliff.
  • And even if he limps on into 2018, this war between the PPK executive and the Fujimorista-controlled Congress has only just begun.

Grab a bucket of popcorn.

12/20/17

The hilarious Brian Paes-Braga

The quote:

“For me, the reason I did this company in the first place (is that) I’m a big believer weaning the world off fossil fuels,” Paes-Braga said. “That was the mission of the company.”

Waddya say owly?

Indeed. So tell us Bri-Bri The Green, what kind of car did you buy with the proceeds of your illegal sales of Lithium-X (LIX-v) done via your pal Duggan in Panama so that you didn't need to declare them as insiders sales? You must remember them Bri-Bri, because when your boss Frank found out he nearly ripped you a new one. Was it a Leaf, perchance?

Ah no, it was a Ferrari. Wean that, you hypocrite.

And when you start pumping Deepgreen next year (now that the old board have resigned and left you with the shell) are you going to play the "Save the Planet By Dredging the Sea Floor" card too?

Reader 'SP' does some Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to) TA

True that I'm still not a big fan of TA, however, the combo of....
  • SP is a smart dude and I've learned to respect his opinions.
  • He's talking up a stock I own (yeah I know, pathetic innit)
  • It's a quiet news day
  • His charts are pretty
  • The Gautama reference

...is enough for me. Namaste and take it away, SP.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I know you don't care much for TA but I think your views on the subject have been evolving over the years. I've attached two charts on SSL.TO that are potentially interesting.

First one shows SSL trying to breakout of an inverse head and shoulders targetting ~C$7.75.  A weekly close above the neckline would make it more compelling.

The squiggly lines make it look like a smiling Buddha.  Calm on the surface but with lots of intrinsic power inside. 😊

Second chart shows that Sandstorm has already broken out wrt spot gold.

Best, SP




And if you want you can click the charts to make them biglier.

Tax loss selling is over

Last week I watched a bunch of higher volume junior mining stocks that had been under selling pressure suddenly reverse and improve. This week, the classic second wave as the less loved and smaller stocks with lower volume suddenly find no resistance to the upside and float up on low to middling volumes. Normally this happens between Christmas and New Year, it's a week early in 2017.

The Michiquillay auction delayed once again

It was supposed to happen his week, but the tendering process for the Michiquillay copper project in Cajamarca, Peru has just been put back to February 2018. If memory serves, this is s fourth time it's been put back. Media is blaming the Presidential crisis and with the big impeachment debate happening tomorrow that's certinaly a factor, but it's also true that the permitting and community agreements proces was running behind schedule, so the country will take this excuse gladly.


Northern Dynasty (NDM.to) (NAK) is down since the First Quantum (FM.to) deal because...

...Katusa dumped his shares.

Pump's over now, the trade is now as dead as Pebble's chances of ever becoming a mine.

"Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for Alpala remains on track for delivery this week"

So says SolGold (SOLG) in its NR this morning. When it shows, the magic number barrier is one billion tonnes. With a B.

Nice grab sample photos from one of its other projects, too.

12/19/17

Daniel Ameduri's pump on Zinc One (Z.v) is failing badly

After double-pumping Zinc One (Z.v) to his flock of sheep this morning (yup folks, not one but two mail blasts trying to get them to buy while Ameduri sells into the volume), Keith Neumeyer's lapdog hasn't got the response he wanted. Hell's teeth Dannyboy, only 2c up after all that blahblah? You're definitely losing your touch! I mean, this blerg's headsup on your nefarious plans last week moved it by 5c! 

Out-done by a pissant blogger. How do you feel, Dannyboy? 

Or maybe it's because people are finally cottoning on to this scumbag's M.O. and track record. After all, how are the other stocks recently pumped by Dannyboy doing?

Auryn (AUG.v):

First Mining Finance (FF.to):

GoldMining (GOLD.v)
Inca One (IO.v) ...oh my stars, you got $250k for doing this to a stock, Dannyboy?
And not forgetting the Derek & Clive stock, K92 (KNT.v):

There are plenty more besides, check out Silver One (SVE.v) for another classic Ameduri/Neumeyer disaster area. It is in fact very impressive, like Midas in reverse: One touch from Daniel Ameduri's finger and gold turns to shit

Mailbag on Brian Paes-Braga

This mail from A. Reader today was too good to keep to myself, so I asked and received permission to share on this humble corner of cyberspace:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
“Hi Otto, I read your post about LIX while sitting at Pearson Airport and had to chuckle to myself: You know it’s funny when even official Toronto hears about “Bri Bri” looking at ten million dollar estates in Whistler and West Van, and Country Club memberships after his wins on HIVE and LIX. So now the myth will continue, hey, he’s just had his first public divestiture and all the sins of the past (Mountainview Energy, ECIG, Pan American Fertilizer and others) will be forgotten. But who are we pretending? Let’s not kid around here, behind the thin veneer of saccharin charm, false humility and those wet, dull eyes lies a person with a moral compass that lies somewhere between King Joffrey and Lavrentiy Beria.”


Red Eagle (R.to) runs another private placement

What a surprise. Not.

Daniel Ameduri got bored with Disney

His bosses say jump, he be shoutin' "How High Boss?". His pump on Zinc One (Z.v) today is just another example of his desperation to get the stock to $1.30 and save his company.


12/18/17

LIX sells

Nice job Bri-Bri, now nobody will ever find out about your illegal trades. Right?

First Quantum and Northern Dynasty

So, FM pays $37.5m upfront and then another $112.5m over four years to get 50% of Pebble. And NAK gets to keep this Zombie alive until 2024 minimum and pretend there's gong to be a mine at the end of it all. A deal that only Canada could concoct.

12/17/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN448 has just been sent to subscribers. Joyeux Noel

The Chilean Presidential election run-off: And the winner is...

...The Christopher Waltz lookalike:


Sebastian Piñera, the once and future President of Chile.

Peru: PPK may survive the vote on Thursday UPDATED

It's not over yet, folks. Rumours are swirling on the streets of Lima and one of them may mean PPK survives the no-confidence vote on Thursday. At this point it's still probable that PPK loses hs job, but the scenario has certainly changed since the feeling of fait accompli on Friday. The reason: For those who know the scene, the whisper is that Cesar Acuña will direct his nine APP members of congress to abstain from voting. In theory at least, that means the "PPK Out" vote gets to 85 when they need 87 to secure their victory.

Details in IKN448, subbers.


UPDATE: Due to PPK going on live TV tonight for an interview with one of the top political journalists in Peru, the IKN Weekly edition will go out late tonight.

Michael Ballanger continues to weasel out of his day of justice

According to the latest, he's managed to get his hearing booted back to June 4th 2018 (the third postponement already). 

With disciplinary hearings so easy to avoid, no wonder the Canadian capital markets are so full of scumbags like Ballanger.

12/15/17

PPK could even be gone by tonight

Right now, Peru's First Vice-President Martin Vizcarra is negotiating with the all-powerful Fuerza Popular (Fujimorista) Congressional bloc in order to come to an agreement to ensure smooth passage. The basic deal is that he Vizcarra takes over as President (as stipulated in Peru's constitutionm the baton goes to the VP) in exchange for a pledge that he then dissolves government and calls a new Presidential election. 

If the agreement comes, PPK then resigns this weekend and Vizcarra takes temporary control (a weekend is a good time to do these things, closed markets and all that). All moving fast here, but if something comes up it might go to the vote at the end of next week and PPK gets thrown out the front door, shaking his fist.

The Friday OT: The Jam; That's entertainment

I had another tune lined up for the segment, then this afternoon reader FT sent this in:

Hi Mark:

Just wanted to drop you a line to thank you for the hilarity involving Daniel Amenduri. I am glad you are exposing these people.

Merry Christmas and Happy New year.

F...... T........

PS. For some reason when I read your email exchange, the song That's Entertainment by The Jam came to mind. I really don't know why.

That's a cue for a song if ever I saw one. Darned good song, too. All yours Paul, take it away:




Youtube here.

Daniel 'Davidoff Cigar' Ameduri

Judging by my mailbox (thank you all) I'm not the only one who can't stop laughing.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will not be President of Peru for much longer

Last night President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski of Peru tried to put on a brave front, addressed the nation via TV to say he would not resign and even offered to waive his right to banking secrecy in order to show he has nothing to hide. 

It doesn't matter, he won't last much longer as President. He's already been shown to have lied about his dealings with Odebrecht and now that solid evidence has appeared (e.g. he stated that his company, Westfield Capital, hadn't received a penny from either Odebrecht or middleman company First Capital, there are now signed receipts to show that is 100% untrue, with six figures sums involved too) his days are numbered. As well as details such as...

  • Last night he failed to get a vote of confidence from his own ministerial cabinet
  • This morning, one of his key ministers handed in his resignation.
  • The Peru Vice President has flown back in a hurry from Canada (needed for succession purposes)

...more importantly the Peru Congress is about to table a vote of No Confidence that would force him out if voted up. The vote isn't an easy one to pass and needs 2/3rds majority, which in practical terms is 87 votes out of the 130 total, but as two of the minor parties have now joined the 'Fuerza Popular' (Fujimorista) party in the call, Congress now expects to have enough votes. Congress has two weeks maximum from the time the motion is tabled to vote, which means PPK might not even make it to the end of 2017.

Assuming he's booted out (most political commentators in Peru now think he's a dead man walking), Veep Martin Vizcarra becomes President and though he could hold the mandate without any need for further ratification, it all points to a dissolving of government and new elections in early 2018.

UPDATE midday: The motion to kick out PPK was tabled in Congress a few minutes ago. Game on.

12/14/17

PPK on a tightrope

As things stand today, and according to word on the street in Lima, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski might not even make it to his interrogation in front of the Lava Jato/Odebrecht corruption committee scheduled for December 22nd. With the evidence mounting up against him of his involvement in cash-for-contracts with Odebrecht during previous governments (particularly during the Alejandro Toledo years around 2005-07) it's now at the point where if he doesn't hand in his resignation, the Keiko Fujimori-led Congress is going to demand it. 

And by the way, this might be a new story for you but it's not for readers of The IKN Weekly, as we've been following it very closely in many recent editions with the first this one, way back in IKN433 dated September 3rd:



EDIT: Peru PPK may be involved in the Alejandro Toledo corruption scandal
There’s a reasonably strong rumour travelling the streets of Lima tonight which has the potential to rock the country’s politics deeply. Josef Maiman, the person who allegedly was the go-between for bribes to then-President Alejandro Toledo paid by Odebrecht, has recently turned State’s Witness (in return for immunity from prosecution and has been providing evidence to the judiciary in Peru. But according to the rumour, not only has he provided detailed evidence of Toledo’s wrongdoings but has also pointed the finger at the current President, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, as recipient of bribes (PPK was Toledo’s Minister of Finance and his Cabinet chief during the Toledo presidency). And adding potential fuel to the fire tonight, it’s rumoured that an emergency cabinet meeting took place. What’s not rumour is that just a few minutes ago the Peru Public Ministry issued a statement saying the Maiman’s testimony will remain a secret and will not be published. This is still rumour and may be nothing, but may be massive. We’ll see.


Since then things have ebbed and flowed, but what we have seen is a noose tightening around PPK's neck. This week might be critical, watch this space.

UPDATE: The Spanish language timeline chart is doing the rounds of social media today. Though you need the both the language and at least some previous knowledge of the unfolding scandal to understand it, it's a very useful way of seeing just how much doo-doo the country's President is in right now:




UPDATE 2: It's now looking ominous for PPK. According to reliable sources (as they say) PPK held an emergency cabinet meeting this afternoon and did not get the support of his own ministers. He won't last long unless he really digs in his heels.



x

So I get this mail from Daniel Ameduri...

...which said exactly this:

Daniel Ameduri 
To:Otto Rock

14 Dec at 13:03
You know you almost screwed this promo up. 

Thanks for helping us start at a higher price. 

How's the test look bitch, am I missing anything?

DA


Under his purple prose he also sent over the test version of his pump he's about to unleash on the dumbass end of the marKet, and here it is:

 ----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Future Money Trends
To: "<< Test First Name >>"
Sent: Thursday, December 14, 2017 11:58 AM
Subject: [Test] Immediate Stock Recommendation: Zinc One (TSXV: Z)





I added that red highlight, by the way. Yup, seven hundred thousand dollars for two weeks worth of pumpo. Seems legit. So I replied this:

You're missing the bit that reminds people about Z.v going to $1.30 by May 2018 else you have to close down.

M


He hasn't replied. Cat got your tongue, Dannyboy?

UPDATE: Aha! He replies. Such a cutie:

You're like a trained poodle.

The extent of you being my bitch will be revealed to you one day, but not yet, we're not done doing the Lords work together. 

Your front running abilities, thanks to your dumb pigeoned brained readers is much appreciated. In fact, I've already decided to name my next Rolex after you.

Did you consider that the last time you did this, there was never a promo? But I fed you like a good boy with a zinc teaser, no company mention, just your readers buying and buying and buying.

And now, someone gave you very bad info. 

There is no Zinc One promo coming, no 700k either, the truth is, someone purposely gave you bad info and your hate for me blinded you to whatever that persons motivation was.

NE-Way, Im sitting here smoking a wonderful Davidoff Cigar and it just occurred to me, I still have some AAL shares left. Perhaps you can tip off your dumb Vancouverite readers and we can team up again next week. If you would like, I can even make another fake email like the one you received today and posted immediately, just like a trained dog. Judging by the volume, your brain dead pigeons did exactly as expected. 

Didn't take long by the way, just search your inbox for Jan 2017, all it was, was an 11 month old duplicate email. Of course I did go the extra mile and add a line about permit news and of course, this crazy 700k compensation that you believed to be true. 

One last favor, when you're done sucking FMT dick, please be sure to swallow any spillage.  Don't worry, thanks to your readers I'll be sure to leave a big tip. 

Good luck with your fantasy Zinc One promo. 

Daniel Ameduri


UPDATE 2: And the exchange continued. I waited a while for Dannyboy's final comeback, but so far nothing. If he comes up with something I'll stick it on the end. C'mon Dannyboy! You can do it! Don't be shy now...

Me to him:
Oh, and thanks for the extra post content by the way. Your Masters must live love the way you've become obsessed with the pissant blogger.

Him to me:
I know you'll never tell me, but I am curious to know who screwed you. Seriously, whoever told you there was an FMT promo coming and 700k was paid, was a complete lie. Why that person would try to manipulate you I can only think of one reason. 

Must of been someone you trusted though, because the fact that you highlighted the 700 disclaimer in the fake email, means it wasn't you who made it up, because you truly believed it. 

Someone lied to you and potentially hurt your front running readers. I hope you call them out. 

I would love to know who is using your site to bring volume and using my site to get you to pull the trigger for them. 

No more FMT promo's this year by the way. Off to a Disney cruise with the family. 

Best Regards,

DA

Me to him:
Seriously Dannyboy, is this all you've got left? You used to be good at this, what happened?

Looking forward to May 2018 when you keep your word and close down.

m

Him to me:
It's pure entertainment. 

Can ya bump up us to the top? 

Also, are we good for AAL next week? I want to make sure my broker is ready for your fake news front running alert.

DA

And me to him:
I do like it when the dumbfucks bite. What happens this end is that I publish what I publish and then, under normal circumstances, nothing comes back. That's because the real sector people who get fun features on IKN don't care, they're aware of the bigger picture and how little it matters what I think, say, do or write. But then every now an again some thin-skinned jerk with deep-seated psychoses and fears of having his all-important money being snatched away from him by an imaginary bugbear gets just a little too worried and sure enough, they'll write in. All bluster and bullshit, all passive-aggressive defence mechanism, or sometimes veiled threats. I get the ones threatening legal action too of course, but you're definitely not one of those idiots.

I honestly didn't know how much I was getting under your skin, Dannyboy. It's going to get fun now. Enjoy Disney.

Asanko Gold (AKG) and K2 Associates: The most impressive trade of the last 18 months

Wednesday December 13th marked the moment when Asanko Gold (AKG) broke through U$0.47 to the downside, which was the original price target posited by K2 Associates in its short report on the company dated June 27th 2016. We at IKN have followed this trade quite closely over the near 18 months between then and now starting the day after the K2 publication (here) and today we are obliged to pay tribute.

This was the most impressive trade I've witnessed in the last two years. I, along with many others I talked to at the time, was doubtful of the trade (one friend said it was "impressive" and "brave", trader code for reckless), but we knew nothing: Not only has the K2 thesis played out, it's done so almost to the letter and on a near-exact timeline too. This was an example of (nothing short of) brilliant DD outwitting and showing the lies peddled by a company for exactly what they were (and are), a large barrowful of BS that went completely undetected by the hapless and gullible fools in the Canadian sellside. Yes indeed, we should also make clear K2's thesis flew directly in the face of every single brokerage with AKG coverage, to a person they had buy ratings and very fancy price targets on the stock. We also need state that even as the AKG story began to unravel and it became clear K2 had got it right the brokerages insisted on their long calls and often doubled down, so it's unknown how much client money was incinerated by their collective idiocy.  K2 took all their money and, with their target now hit, we can only assume they've taken theit profits. Another house that cashed in of course was Muddy Waters, which made a more public splash when announcing short early this year. By then AKG was a $2-and-bits stock, but K2 was shorting this since U$4.15...credit where due, ladies and gentlemen.

Cut to today and from this point until the end of its life, AKG management will try to blame bad luck, or inaccurate third party reports, or gold price, or whatever else. The truth of AKG, as revealed by the most efficient capitalist measure known to man (short selling for profit), is far more nefarious. The people at the helm of AKG are shameful liars who, if the sector wishes to improve itself, should never grace the boardroom of another mining company again. Or as somebody who has also followed this woeful tale of deceit put it to me earlier this very week;

"If you start with no gold, and you salt the assays, that’s fraud. But if you start with a little bit of gold and then use a computer to add multiples more, well that’s just poor judgment. Bre-X were a bunch of amateurs compared to AKG."

12/13/17

Checking in on how well Pascua Lama is going

Last year Barrick (ABX) auctioned off the trucks it had bought for its Pascua Lama project in Chile (we understand Antofagasta bought them and they're now doing the rounds at Antucoya). This week ABX auctioned off even more of its Pascua Lama infrastructure, including lifting gear, storage facilities and box containers.According to Barrick Chile this is because, they, "...are not necessary for this phase of the project. We are temporarily paralyzed until September 2019."

So now you know.

Seriously people, this Zinc One (Z.v) Ameduri pump is going to push the thing a lot higher

That corrupt crudball Daniel Ameduri has been given $700k cash by Neumeyer and his sycophants to spend on pumping this company, as well as all the options he personally owns and the shares recently bought at lows. All upfront, too. He's going to spread that cash around to all the usual suspects, Germany, USA, Canada, James West, that slimy Schaefer guy, Casey's Louis James obviously, the two-faced ratbags at CEO a who will suddenly take a coincidental interest in this stock...all those and more on the payroll.

So get these low 40s numbers before the braindead pile in. Eat some of his lunch.

Eric Sprott and Garibaldi (GGI.v) Part Deux: How Eric reduces his cost average

Once the game-changing move into a stock like Garibaldi Resources (GGI.v) gets made and a guy like Eric Sprott holds all the cards...
  • Control position in the market and active purchases continuing
  • BS-spouting company run by people with a track record of hype-and-fail
  • Hoards of True Believers on one side who will stake their grandmother on the BSsers being right about it being next Voisey's Bay
  • Another hoard of people on the counterbid, i.e. those people who see GGI for what it really is and know the chances are stacked high on it being a long-term failure.
...what do you do if you're Eric Sprott and you want to play the company like a cat with a mouse? Well, you do two things:

1) For a start, you make sure the volatility continues. In order to stay in control, you want to whip the stock price around as much as possible and deter those who think they're smart. So when bad news comes out, you whack on the asks and run the stock up 10%. On (what passes for) good news, dump into the bids get it to dive 20%. Nobody in their right minds will step in and daytrade something with no set direction and with price action that defies newsflow. After a couple of rounds of burnt fingers the rest of the world stays away and Eric has his toy all to himself.

2) You lend out stock to shorters and/or you trade short yourself. The most obvious play of all, as you get to hedge your own position and once in control of the price swings, in the enviable position of being able to reduce one's cost average by flipping several times a day (which also accounts for the multiple block-type ticker action I'm seeing most days, whether or not Mr. Sprott files new aggregate insider purchases). This is again the type of smart marketcraft you'd except from a guy like Eric Sprott and as he's better at this than you, his cost average will quickly ratchet down over time.

As long as Eris Sprott is active and GGI can spin out its BS story (i.e. at least until the Canadian Spring when they'll be obliged to drill again...then count eight to ten weeks as they drag heels on first results....then another eight as the project-killer holes finally show up...man this can go on til this time next year) the people who are short are in for a rough ride on GGI, they'll be screaming and wailing and telling us it's not fair. Which is fine, because there are ignorant greedy dumbasses on both sides of this story* and the only smart ones are 1) the officers of GGI who have raised the cash to guarantee their paychecks for years and 2) the person playing you all like a toy trumpet. His name is Eric and he's richer than you for a good reason.


*The arrogant conceit of the shortside is just as annoying as the plugdumb ignorance of the greenhorn longs who have been sold a vision of Scrooge McDuck diving into a pool of money. The only people worse are those running the scam, pretending to be long and cheerleading the stupid into holding...they have a special place in hell waiting for them.

PS: Dear retail holder of GGI: When you hear people referring to this post as nonsense and made-up rubbish (and you will, I promise), take a note of that person's name. Because they are either 1) utterly stupid in the ways of the market or 2) lying to you. Now you have a nice day there, yeah?

Doing business with Canaccord

This is a great read, but it's also standard practice at Canaccord. Check out the link which shows how a couple of grubby directors at Cannimed and the grubbiest of investment banks can scupper your pot business, go behind your back, take the info protected under CA and give it straight to your competition (which, coincidentally, has a long and fruitful relationship with Canaccord) who then launch a hostile bid on your butt. An excerpt:

CanniMed is also questioning the actions of investment bank Canaccord Genuity, which it says had access to its confidential financial and operating data as an adviser to Newstrike before being engaged by Aurora for its hostile bid.
"Canaccord was subject to non-disclosure obligations with respect to CanniMed's confidential information and a breach of these obligations has significant administrative law consequences. Aurora knew or should have known of this inappropriate conduct and the consequences of such actions," it said in its application, one in a flurry of announcements Monday related to the takeover scrap.
A Canaccord Genuity official declined to comment, citing a policy not to talk about any current mandates. It is not known whether the bank, which has a long-term relationship with Aurora, destroyed any paperwork and deployed a different team for the hostile bidder after severing its contract with Newstrike, as is standard practice.

And here's the whole Cannimed vs Aurora deposition, which includes this point (and the ones after 79 are well worth a read, too):


Kermit, your thoughts on hiring Canaccord as your dealmaker?


My thanks to A. Reader for the heads-up.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) and its tailings spill in Peru

Today news comes of a tailings spillage at the Huaron mine run by Pan American Silver (PAAS) in Peru.

As this is obviously a material event, we can be 100% certain that this company will give us more information later today. Right guys?

12/12/17

A Flash update....

...has just been sent to subscribers, 10pm local time Monday Tuesday evening. A couple of things to report.

PS: And like a foolI managed to label the update 'Monday, too. I live in the past. Sorry, should have said Tuesday.

The Daniel Ameduri pump job on Zinc One (A.v) starts tomorrow

Thr long lost drill permits have finally shown up. Expect a company NR tomorrow lunchtime and don't say you weren't warned.

Keith, that's one leaky boat you got there. Why you trust Ameduri is beyond me.

Good to see Rye Patch Gold (RPM.v) confident it can get to commercial production in 1q18...

...as per its update yesterday, what with the way it was working cap negative to the tune of CAD$23m at the end of 3q17 (which means even worse now)...

...it owed $38.65m in current liabilities, most of that financial debt accruing interest of between 16% and 36% (yup, that says thirty-six percent, it's not a typo)...

...as well as the long-term lumps of course, and its cash position is dwindling rapidly again

By the way, my fave bit of yesterday's NR was when CEO Howald said after the 3,491 oz Au produced in November means (and we quote), "At this point mining operations now begin to contribute positive cash flows to the Company", which is one impressive piece of verbal gymnastics. It translates as "we fractured more cash in October and November and mining ops cash flow still don't cover corporate costs." Natch.

So let's take bets on the size and price of the next round of equity financing: I say they sell 100m units at 15c apiece for $15m and get that shares out count to 527m in one shot. Any counters?

And you know it's Peak Blockchain when...

...Henk van Alphen and Cesar Lopez join forces to IPO a blockchain company onto the TSXV. This is going to be a hoot.

The big question about Mineros SA

Will it backdoor into the TSX by buying Atacama Pacific (ATM.v), or will it try to go it alone via an IPO? The guys at ATM seem to think it's a done deal that they'll get bought out by the Colombians, but the longer they dick them around the higher the chances that the Colombians walk.


Chart of the day is...

...copper, month of December:




Back at three. That didn't last long.

12/11/17

Eric Sprott and Garibaldi (GGI.v)

So there I was, watching the market today, with the radar screen open and the action in that current day hotstock Garibaldi (GGI.v) clearly catching the attention as it plummeted after the Friday afternoon BS news release that didn't fool anyone with a brain (i.e. the population of CEO.ca is forgiven, they know not what they do) when it dawned on me that Eric Sprott was in there buying once again. Not content with splashing his cash into the stock the way he's done recently...


...there were more blocks going out from time to time in exactly the same way. And that puzzled me because this GGI thing is a hyped-up souped-up vehicle with way more sizzle than steak, a story that the company will be able to spin out for as long as there are gullible idiots prepared to flush their cash down the toilet (in other words, indefinitely), so what's a successful and smart player like Eric Sprott doing in the marketplace, doesn't he have enough shares already? Doesn't he have a home to go to? Got a better hobby, Eric? The thought kept scratching at me so, rather than keep it at an intuitive level, it was time to go and get some real data. What follows is accurate (I believe) as at the end of last week, December 8th as per SEDI and GGI Reg Fs, so it doesn't include any purchases Eris Sprott made today (doubtless a few hundred thousand more) but has enough information for our purposes.

Here we go:

As far as I can make out GGI.v today has 97.81m shares out (feel free to correct me if I'm a few out either side, but it's going to be close anyway) and of those, Eric Sprott owns 11.59m. That's 11.85% of S/O and once you add in the un-exercised warrants (3.873m of those, with 2.286m or them well in the money and 1.587m out the money at $4.50 strike) his F/D stake goes up. So he's obviously keen on GGI and his continued incursions show he's hungry for more, but it's when you start examining just how he built position that the strategy becomes clear.

The key is the first move in, when he spotted the upcoming hype early and bought 7.816m shares at 82c and 92c. Along with those, a couple of weeks ago he exercised 833k options at a 20c strike, so there on those three he has 8.65m or so shares in his pile. Total price paid? That's $6.77m or so.

Which brings us to the second part of his strategy, as since then Mr. Sprott has been a constant buyer at market prices. Go check the SEDI filing yourself but once you do you'll see the same as I and, if you can be bothered to do the same sums, you'll see that his market purchases aside from the cheap entries described above come to 2.939m shares (as at the weekend just gone remember, add in today Monday yourself later if you want) and cost him the pretty total of $9.36m so far. So, add together the early cheapies and the market priceys bought by Sprott and you get a man that's paid $16.13m for 11.59m shares. Your average price: $1.39 per share (not including the warrants).

The point---> People, he can hardly lose. No matter how many shares he adds from here (presumably the ultimate stop for open market purchases is 19.99%), thanks to the early purchases he's going to stay under the market price for the indefinite future. What's more by continuing the buying spree he controls the bid/ask, as if it goes too low he just whacks in and the momo crowd follow suit (after all this is Eric Sprott right? Never made a bad call in his life yaknowz...). The key to this all is, of course, his balls of steel to buy large and early when the rest of the market were just cottoning on to the opportunity. That's the sign of a master at work and I truly take my hat off to him for the way he trades into a position, it's as close to real genius as you see in the Canadian capital market, but almost as impressive is the way in which he's played the open price at the new high levels (and in doing so kept them high, all to his own benefit). And ultimately, Sprott is likely to keep on driving to the very end of this road because thanks to his market craft his own odds are stacked well in his favour. Here's his risk/reward equation these days:
1) If the whole GGI edifice turns out to be a mirage, it's not going to return to zero cents (these things never do). Let's say for argument's sake it dumps to a long term 50c. Eric loses $10m maximum (and it wouldn't take much market nous for him to being his cost basis down to zero quickly).

2) However if GGI does turn out to be the next Voisey's Bay or whatever, he's holding 12% or 15% or 20% of a multi-billion dollar asset. That moves the dial of anybody.

3) So a billionaire gets given betting odds of at-worst $10m to the the downside and (let's say) $1Bn to the upside. This one is not difficult, count the zeros, but as an added bonus he gets to do what he loves to do the most and play serious in the market, limelight and kudos and ego-stoke, the whole nine yards.

Bottom line: GGI's future matters more to you than it does to Eric Sprott. The man in charge of this ticker is allowed to be an idiot with $10m because his  world class early perception of the market move. Add that to his out-sized stones and you have a man in what he believes to be a highly advantageous position in GGI. So be clear, you are not him, you aren't as rich, you aren't as powerful, you aren't as good as spotting an early market opportunity. On the other hand you haven't been duped into believing (first by the story, then by bias confirmation twaddle from the company and its True Believers) that the shysters in charge of this BS show really might have the next VB. You see the big and stupid mistake he's making by throwing good money after bad and recognize that now is the time to short this utter POS, laugh deeply at the idiots on CEO.ca making fools of themselves and take a minor piece of Eric's wealth away from him. He won't miss it and you'll enjoy it.