start here

start here

The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)

I say things on Twitter

12/27/17

Ten random predictions for 2018

Here we go with the IKN Never-Fail Forecasts* for the year to come. As per the last five years we're sticking to the same general format and a mix of financial, politics and sport. After scoring 5.5/10 in 2013, 6/10 in 2014, 5.5/10 in 2015, 6/10 in 2016 and a pathetic 1/10 last year (the copper call the only one I got right) I need to buck up my ideas for the year ahead, but as always we don't take this too seriously and part of the fun is to go for some outsiders, a left-field call or two that will be tough to nail.

*some restrictions apply

So to business:
1) Gold to break over U$1,400/oz in 2018. It's a slight cheat of a call, because it's exactly the same as the one that didn't make it last year. But it's my game so bite me. The thinking behind it is of a metal that will do well enough in the year without knocking it out the park. It won't live up to the crazy numbers that the rabid end of the goldbug world will start vomiting at us mid-year.
2) Copper to break U$3.75/lb. The run put in by the world's most important metal commodity was good in 2017, but it's only just begun.
3) Silver to break over U$20/oz in 2018. It's The Jekyll and Hyde metal has spent literally years in the doghouse, ignoring the pump boys in fine style, but we're now moving into macroeconomic conditions that truly benefit both sides of its demand make-up.
4) Barrick to buy Detour Gold. This year's traditional left-field M&A call. At some point ABX will be too pissed about NEM holding the number one spot not to expand, plus it'll be in a rising gold price environment.
5) Andrés Manuel López Obrador to become the next President of Mexico. It'll be third time lucky for AMLO, who will at first cause "OHMAHGAWD COMMIE!!" scare headlines in the English speaking dumbo media, but El Peje won't be that bad for the country or its FDI.
6) Mercedes Araoz will become President of Peru in 2018. It might be via a back door and it might or might not be just temporarily, but she'll make it there and become Peru's first ever woman President.
7) Iván Duque to become the next President of Colombia. This one is a VERY tough call, as even though it's late December and the election is set for late May there field is still large and the race wide open. Duque is by no means guaranteed to make it as a candidate on vote day either, the right wing coalition has to choose its candidate from three parties and he's only one of those. But as it's going to be a very important election for the whole region, I'm going to stick my neck out and call it for the Uribistas.
8) Peru to make the last 16 at the 2018 World Cup Finals. They have a tough group (France, Croatia, Oz) and it's the first time they've been at the WCF for 36 years, but I've watched in amazement the way in which Gareca has taken a bunch of egos and turned them into a efficient and dangerous country team. Now that Paolo Guerrero isn't barred from Russia, I'm tipping Peru as the surprise package of the sporting world's biggest event in the next 12 months.
9) Argentina to win the 2018 World Cup Finals in Russia. Yes I know  Brazil is currently head-and-shoulders over the other LatAm teams. Yes I know Germany are worthy faves. Yes I know Argentina only just scraped into the WCF. I don't care. In Leo We Trust.
10) Coco to win Best Animated Film at the 2018 Oscars. Have you seen this jewel yet? It's not just the best animated movie of the year, it's one of the best ever made. Loving Vincent will appeal to the Oscar judges for its artistic input, but Coco is astoundingly good for its genre. 

There you go, our Ten For The Prize in 2018, expect the usual postmortem post around next Christmas.