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New Nadina Explorations (NNA.v): It took 40 days

Remember this post back on November 20th? The one pointing out the New Way Of Doing Business in the junior world by bamboozling a bunch of idiots with more money than sense. Garibaldi (GGI.v) had set the ball rolling Back on November 20th and here's how it worked, according to the post that day:
1) Quietly talk up drilling results as they happen. "Hey there, I've heard that..."
2) Get the dumbass end of the mining world vomiting in chatrooms about the "next Voisey's" or whatever other phrase to get the circlejerk underway
3) Release a cherrypicked photo or two. Fapfest
4) Stoke up the tension for weeks. Fappity fappity
5) Run a placement and fill coffers. Ka-Ching!
6) Finally release an assay that doesn't live up to the hype. Oh.
7) Keep em hanging on with "Not our fault it's cold in the winter, next year gonna be (etc)".
In that post we then noted how New Nadina (NNA.v) had taken up the challenge. At that time they'd checked off the first three, numbers four and five were in progress, six and seven labelled "coming soon". Here we are just 40 days later and we're up to point six already. They stoked the tension, they filled coffers via a placement and last night (the freakin' night of a long weekend Friday, fercryinoutloud!) the cold dose of reality hit:
"From 663.35 to 809.35m (145.98m total including 13m of barren dykes) the average metal values are 8.0 g/t Ag, 0.10 g/t Au, and 0.06% Cu."

Yup, it seems as all those photos don't count for excrement after all....who knew assays occasionally fail to live up to expectations? WHO KNEW???

LET US BE CLEAR: This is a scam and it is bring run at you by liars and thieves. Even the most stupid (or "forgiving" if you insist on being utterly naive) among this audience has to acknowledge that sneaking this type of megafail assay NR in late night Friday December 29th is its own message.

By the way, on the day of that original post Garibaldi (GGI.v) had just dumped 20% on receipt of crappy drill results and was a $3.95 stock at the close. Today it's another 37.7% lower at $2.46. Hey GGI True Believer dumbasses...just sayin'.


The Friday OT: The Beach Boys; Good Vibrations

I heard it again a couple of days ago, a stereo version through a great speaker and it was like hearing it for the first time. It's the difference between hearing a song from time to time all your life, but one fine day actually and finally listening to it. Still impressive 50 years on, it must have been brain-shattering back then.

Youtube here.

Arb on LIX now >10%

An 11% arb on a cash offer: Buy it for $2.35 and sell it for $2.61...what could possibly go wrong?

LIX is trading strangely and when you consider the people behind this show, that's not a good thing at all. And it'd hardly be the first time a Chinese company decided to "revise" its offer for a Canadian junior (ask Henk van Alpen for more details).

The US Dollar

A very interesting end of year for the USD index:


There will be no posting on this blog today

For secret reasons.


Can you see the moment...

...when Brent Cook mentioned Tinka Resources (TK.v) on BNN TV?

Yup, me too. Check out the segment here. Cookie Monster starts at minute 16.

Ten random predictions for 2018

Here we go with the IKN Never-Fail Forecasts* for the year to come. As per the last five years we're sticking to the same general format and a mix of financial, politics and sport. After scoring 5.5/10 in 2013, 6/10 in 2014, 5.5/10 in 2015, 6/10 in 2016 and a pathetic 1/10 last year (the copper call the only one I got right) I need to buck up my ideas for the year ahead, but as always we don't take this too seriously and part of the fun is to go for some outsiders, a left-field call or two that will be tough to nail.

*some restrictions apply

So to business:
1) Gold to break over U$1,400/oz in 2018. It's a slight cheat of a call, because it's exactly the same as the one that didn't make it last year. But it's my game so bite me. The thinking behind it is of a metal that will do well enough in the year without knocking it out the park. It won't live up to the crazy numbers that the rabid end of the goldbug world will start vomiting at us mid-year.
2) Copper to break U$3.75/lb. The run put in by the world's most important metal commodity was good in 2017, but it's only just begun.
3) Silver to break over U$20/oz in 2018. It's The Jekyll and Hyde metal has spent literally years in the doghouse, ignoring the pump boys in fine style, but we're now moving into macroeconomic conditions that truly benefit both sides of its demand make-up.
4) Barrick to buy Detour Gold. This year's traditional left-field M&A call. At some point ABX will be too pissed about NEM holding the number one spot not to expand, plus it'll be in a rising gold price environment.
5) Andrés Manuel López Obrador to become the next President of Mexico. It'll be third time lucky for AMLO, who will at first cause "OHMAHGAWD COMMIE!!" scare headlines in the English speaking dumbo media, but El Peje won't be that bad for the country or its FDI.
6) Mercedes Araoz will become President of Peru in 2018. It might be via a back door and it might or might not be just temporarily, but she'll make it there and become Peru's first ever woman President.
7) Iván Duque to become the next President of Colombia. This one is a VERY tough call, as even though it's late December and the election is set for late May there field is still large and the race wide open. Duque is by no means guaranteed to make it as a candidate on vote day either, the right wing coalition has to choose its candidate from three parties and he's only one of those. But as it's going to be a very important election for the whole region, I'm going to stick my neck out and call it for the Uribistas.
8) Peru to make the last 16 at the 2018 World Cup Finals. They have a tough group (France, Croatia, Oz) and it's the first time they've been at the WCF for 36 years, but I've watched in amazement the way in which Gareca has taken a bunch of egos and turned them into a efficient and dangerous country team. Now that Paolo Guerrero isn't barred from Russia, I'm tipping Peru as the surprise package of the sporting world's biggest event in the next 12 months.
9) Argentina to win the 2018 World Cup Finals in Russia. Yes I know  Brazil is currently head-and-shoulders over the other LatAm teams. Yes I know Germany are worthy faves. Yes I know Argentina only just scraped into the WCF. I don't care. In Leo We Trust.
10) Coco to win Best Animated Film at the 2018 Oscars. Have you seen this jewel yet? It's not just the best animated movie of the year, it's one of the best ever made. Loving Vincent will appeal to the Oscar judges for its artistic input, but Coco is astoundingly good for its genre. 

There you go, our Ten For The Prize in 2018, expect the usual postmortem post around next Christmas.

What a post-tax loss selling stock looks like

A show and tell session, the example being Atico Mining (ATY.v):

Suddenly the sellers dry up and anyone wanting in has to pay up. Volume is light but that's normal, too.

PPK replacing his Interior Minister today...

...with a complete nobody, because any real candidate in their right mind wouldn't take a job on his sinking ship. Anyway, the ceremony is at 1pm or so local time, about an hour and a half from now. We might get some other minor ministerial changes as well.


The Sandstorm (SAND) ( rally continues

While the rest of the world tucks into turkey curry/sandwiches/fritters/soup/mayosalad, Sandstorm keeps rocking higher in NY trading today.

That's a new 52 week high, close to its three month average volume too. Santa bringing pressies to Nolan.

Reality bites: Results of the IKN "Ten random predictions for 2017"

On December 29th 2016 we ran our annual "Ten random predictions" post for the year ahead, the usual mix of biz, politics and sport that blend serious and left-field calls that we don't expect to become reality. Here we are at the back end of 2017, it's time for the results so here below come the original calls, the result and the score for each call (1 for a win, 0.5 for "close enough for my taste", big zero for anything else). And by way of reminder of previous years' results:
  • In 2013 we scored 5.5/10
  • In 2014 we scored 6/10
  • In 2015 we scored 5.5/10 
  • In 2016 we scored 6/10
...which means that up to now at least, we've been consistently mediocre. On with the show:
1) Gold to break through U$1,400/oz in the course of 2017
SCORE: 0 point: It broke U$1,350/oz at the start of September, but that's all she wrote on a gold price that was largely range-bound and revolved around the U$1,250/oz line all year. Close I suppose, and the bar was set deliberately high, but a failed call is a failed call.

2) Copper to break through U$3.10/lb this year
SCORE: 1 point: A win! It seems to easy in hindsight, but back in late 2016 we had the world convinced that copper had put in its run and Codelco, BHP, CESCO and all other sources of expertise were predicting a $2.50/lb average for 2017. I win.

3) Uranium will finally put in a rally and move back above U$30/lb
SCORE: 0 point: It got to $25 or $26 on that recent pop when the Stans closed down part of their production, but since then it's dropped back again. No good call
4) Goldcorp (GG) to merge with Agnico Eagle (AEM)
SCORE: 0 point: One of those I don't expect to come in, but pick anyway. And the way things are going, it'll be Agnico picking up Goldcorp soon, not the other way round. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

5) Colombia to become the LatAm mining success story of 2017
SCORE: 0 point: Errrr...massive fail. Arguably the regional winner was Ecuador (easy to jump low-set barriers), but Colombia was the pick and the country went from bad to worse. Local anti-mine referendums, enviro opposition, a government that can't legislate itself out of a plastic bag.

6) Venezuela's government to implode.
SCORE: 0 point: For a while back there the call looked good, but Maduro rode out the the rough period, cracked down on anyone daring to use freedom of speech and then the oil-hungry Chinese rode in and bailed the country out financially, with all signals that they'll keep on doing so in the future if necessary.

7) Mauricio Macri and his government to lose heavily in the Argentina mid-term elections
SCORE: 0 point: Another massive failed call, Macri's Cambiemos party did well and has now given him a true mandate to push through on his reform package. Argentina still isn't out of the woods and its reputation as a permanently FUBAR nation is well deserved, but if the government can do a better job against the stubbornly high inflation rate and keep a lid on the worst of the social protests, there's light at the end of the tunnel. As for Cristina, she will now play out her days as a semi-important character in Congress.

8) Juan Martín Del Potro to win at least one Grand Slam tournament in 2017
SCORE: 0 point: Oh Delpo...again suffered from that iffy wrist early season, came back and was firing at perhaps 85% come the US Open (his best chance), but it wasn't to be. However hope springs eternal and if Roger and Rafa can do it in their mid-30s, so can The Tandil Tower.

9) Barcelona to win the 2017 Champion's League and Spanish Primera double
SCORE: 0 point: Yup,it's another fail. It was a hard call at the time (Barsa trailed Real by a distance last Xmas) so I was't expecting it. One lives in hope and dies smiling.

10) The UK will not invoke Article 50 before the end of March 2017
SCORE: 0 point: And to close out a pathetic year of prognostication, yet another fail. Brexit is coughing and spluttering, the UK parliament now has something akin to a veto vote on the whole shebang come 2019, public opinion in the UK has now moved against leaving the EU...but a call is a call and that one above was blow out the water in due style in March.

And so...roll on the drums...

GRAND TOTAL: ONE OUT OF TEN. Oh my stars, what a waste ground!Now I don't take this thing too seriously and obvious pick a few left-field and hard to kill predictions, but that's a sorry and embarrassing score, light-hearted or not I hand my head in shame.

However, it's not going to put me off :-) and the next edition of the annual predictions will make it to the blog in the next couple of days. In the meantime, feel free to throw cabbages and rotten tomatoes my way.


Merry Christmas, one and all

Have a great day.

PPK pardons Alberto Fujimori

On medical/humanitarian grounds, PPK has just given a pardon to ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Here's the official letter:

Merry Christmas, war is over, if you want it.

PS: Now the fun REALLY begins. Expect ministerial resignations and a real clusterfark in Peru over the next few days. 

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN449 has just been sent to subscribers. A reduced-volume edition, but still time to consider the new news in Sabina and Sandstorm.