start here

start here

The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)

I say things on Twitter

9/13/18

What Renaud Adams will do* at New Gold $NGD

This is very straightforward (and in USD):

1) The new CEO comes with the opportunity to "new broom" a dysfunctional company. And my stars, this one is dysfunctional.
2) There are no secrets about the issues at NGD, it has a) $959.1m of financial debt and b) a main mine that isn't working the way it should.
3) Rainy River (RR) isn't going to be easy to fix, but first things first. NGD needs to lighten the balance sheet burden quicktime, else the equity is going to get crushed before Adams can find a way of improving the ops (if you doubt that, look at the YTD price action for more detail).
4) So it needs to raise cash. But how?
5) It can't sell New Afton (it's only truly profitable operation) and its other ops aside RR are long in the tooth. 
6) But there is Blackwater, the dog of a project they stupidly paid $513m for back in 2011. What with exploration costs and the way that successive CEOs have refused to bow to reality and impair this waste of money, it's still carried on the NGD books at $560m.
7) It's not even worth half that. But what with Renaud being new, he can do something about it at last. Therefore he sells it to some-or-other company for a more reasonable price, let's say $250m, which goes to pay down debt immediately.
8) From there they run a necessary but dilutive financing. Could even be a rights issue, but the frame would be to raise let's say $200m at $1.00.
9) That would move the share count from the current 578m to 778m. 
10) The book value per share after this would be around $2.34. That doesn't mean NGD would be out the woods, but with less pressure on the balance sheet it has bought itself time to get RR going properly and it would be able to justify a 0.4X P/Bv in the meantime.

The final score: Steadying the ship at NGD means Renaud Adams needs to get real about Blackwater and then raise some more money via a placement. From there, if he can get RR running it could be a decent trade. However, without immediate financial surgery this one will die even if it does happen to have a top class mining guy finally at the helm.

*according to me