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10/13/18

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:
.
Third Place: "Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) and its tailings dam breach". It never ceases to amaze me how much gets reported about Canadian mining companies in LatAm that never makes it to English language reports or corporate news releases.

Second Place: "Cartier Resources (ECR.v) and the perils of announcing good news". The only decent and original work on the blog this week.

 
First Place: "Regarding Continental Gold (CNL.to): A mining CEO writes in". This CEO is right, anyone even remotely supporting CNL in its pathetic media campaign of denial is in an indefensible position. This company is everything that's wrong about the mining industry and if the sector had any sort of moral compass, Ari Sussman (check how he screwed all and sundry at Colossus Gold) and all others at CNL would be ostracized forever. Instead, we have this company as main sponsor of an upcoming conference and influential media voices hardly batting an eyelid about the fact, taking the coin and readily supporting their corporate ethos.
Not a single loss at managerial or board level? Shame on you, mining industry! Shame on you, Newmont! How many more employees of this company have to die before the lessons are learned?

10/12/18

The Friday OT: Ismo; I don't know shit

My thanks to reader 'K' for the forward, this guy is good:




Youtube here.

10/11/18

Catching up with the Nick Hodge "Outsider Club" Millrock (MRO.v) pump

Back in early June this humble corner of cyberspace published this post on the BS pump being run by another of these Vancouver snake-oil salespeople, one Nick Hodge and his "Outsider Club". The choice of vehicle was Millrock Resources (MRO.v) and Nick Hodge (who happens to be BFFs with Marin Katusa, well there's a thing) was claiming a potential 25,000% return on the trade (seriously, that's two numbers and three zeroes, I checked before blocking this scampump dumbass on Twitter). 

So anyway, let's see how MRO has got on since then:



Down 54% since June 1st and even worse if you start counting from the top of that pump spike. And once again, consider the volume surge on the publication of the Outsider Club pump and ask yourself not about the number of greenhorns (now bagholders) who were buying that week. Ask yourself who was selling to them.


There will be no posts on this blog today

For secret reasons.

10/10/18

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) and its tailings dam breach

We should expect Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) to inform the market about the breach in its tailings facility at its San José mine in Oaxaca, Mexico, tomorrow. At the locality the environmental authorities have been called in, the company has admitted the breach and locals report that the water in the local river "has turned white".

And if Fortuna Silver doesn't inform the market tomorrow, it will speak volumes about the company's attitude.


Joe Mazumdar at the Metals Investor Forum September 2018

This 30 minute presentation by Joe Mazumdar was reco'd to me* and called "superb" by my contact. who was right. It is.



He explains what went on at Beaver Creek this year and it's chock full of insights, but perhaps the most interesting is when he talks passive investment in the mining sector, the advent of private equity and its effect on today's market. Metalheads should dedicate some of an evening to this. Youtube here.


*Not by Joe M or Brent Cook

Biiwii on the real safe haven

Right here.

Amid the carnage, gold and the miners held steady and firm. Gary T puts it into words and pictures.


Some friendly advice about Plateau Energy (PLU.v)

Those of you thinking about participating in the placement announced this morning should Google the name "Walter Aduviri". And if you're thinking of going heavily in, make sure you do so in Spanish language (and if not versed, pay someone who is).

Thank you for your attention. And don't say you weren't warned.

Continental Gold (CNL.to) shareholders must be happy...

...that the company decided to draw a line under its recent problems by holding a memorial service, planting some trees, publishing a news release and refusing to accept the resignations of the executives whose "close monitoring" and corporate security strategies ended with the deaths of four employees.



Now at $2.45, a new multi-year low.

A flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, on this Wednesday morning. A purchase.

10/9/18

Cartier Resources (ECR.v) and the perils of announcing good news

I normally don't like writing up in a positive light on my own long positions on the blog like this, but this exception proves the rule because circumstances are different. Two things:

1) I do own shares in Cartier Resources (ECR.v), but it really is a small position and even if it triples it's not going to change my life much (unless I add more in the meantime). My ECR is strictly smalltime, toe-in-water stuff and that needs to be clear.

2) This post isn't about my portfolio, nor is it about exhorting you into share ownership of ECR. It's about the shape and climate for exploreco stocks at the moment. Because the atmosphere out there continues to be pure rank horrid, no matter that Barrick and Randgold are now a melded U$20Bn superminer.

What happened to Cartier Resources (ECR.v) today is a great example of the current market for junior explorecos. It had news out this morning pre-bell on its current drill program at the flagship Chimo project near Val D'Or and while there's plenty of technical information to chew over, what matters is the hit you see in this segment of one of the NR visuals:


Now, you really need to have studied ECR for a bit of time to be able to come to even a sketched-out conclusion on what they announced today, because ultimately these people aren't trying to wow the retail audience. Their target market is Agnico (AEM) or any other Tier 1 or Tier 2 company that is looking to get a foothold in this part of the world. Because of that, ECR doesn't do much dirty crazy sexy flashy promo script or fancy photos. This NR is geologists talking geology to geologists.

All the same, anyone who has taken an interest in ECR.v and its Chimo project would have known that the 5.6g over 3m next to the 5.5g over 4.7m they cut was a serious and strong piece of news, especially considering where they cut it from. ECR's theory is that there's a whole separate structure of gold-bearing mineralization running parallel to the known (and previously mined) vein at Chimo, so if they can find it and hit it, while expanding the known vein at depth, it means that the deposit gets immediately more interesting due to the way in which upper levels, previously considered dead and mined out, become sources of cheap and accessible feed. Meanwhile, that parallel vein continues down and makes what they've been finding at depth that much more succulent...more ounces, more fun. Anyway, to cut a long story short today's NR was positive and the guys most likely to buy Chimo, AEM, know that too. So would anyone else who studies the Val D'Or environs closely in order to trade (and there are many of those), but what happened to the stock price today was this:


A bounce scoring 0.1 on the Crap-O-Meter. And this is my point; even in a more-or-less market, a NR like the one delivered by ECR today would have shot the stock higher because those equipped with the smarts and understanding would have piled in (then sold to us as they explained how good it all was). Not today folks, because the market is flatter than a donut under a CAT 797 and even though AEM will love what they see, the equity does nothing at all.

Am I frustrated with this? No, not really. Well yes a bit, but only because I'm not a re-buyer of ECR until it starts to move up and today's news in a different year would have been enough to put it in play. But it's not frustration about failing to make a fabbo profit, that is a by-product and will come and go. The other frustration is to see things happen to ECR and others that only happen when the world does not give a flying sexual intercourse about junior explorecos. It's not that it will change either, because I can guarantee on all that's sacred that it will. Sentiment will improve and good times will be had by all, just don't ask me when because I don't have a freakin' clue. 

In the meantime, stocks like ECR will fill the market bandwidth with good news and be totally ignored for their efforts. Right up to the moment when they're not.

Regarding Continental Gold (CNL.to): A mining CEO writes in

Mailbag this morning included the missive seen below here, from A.Reader who also happens to be a highly experienced and peer-respected mining person as well as a CEO of a Canadian listed junior mining company. It was his response to the news out of Continental Gold (CNL.to) yesterday:

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TITLE: The decent thing to do...

BODY: ...after a series of sad and terrible incidents such as this, is to resign the entire CNL Executive Team and a large part of the Board regardless of fault, implied or real. If not, the fact that the same senior management team remains, will lead inevitably to a decay in morale, beleaguered performance and a loss of confidence. The Company needs to pay its respects then start afresh.
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He is right. CNL is trying to wriggle out of admitting its responsibility in this sordid affair, a series of serious corporate lapses that culminated in the latest horrific event that saw three of its geologists murdered by terrorist dissidents. Will their shareholders let them get away with this? Newmont, got a view on this?

Mark Bristow resigns from the Kaplan "Panthera" conservation group

A timeline for your consideration:

September 22nd: IKN scoops the world on the Barrick/Randgold (aka Randick) merger.

September 24th: Merger announced and, along with the flurry of fun, we re-publish photos of Mark Bristow with his trophy big game kills first featured on this blog in August 2016.

September 26th: This humble corner of cyberspace receives more photos of Bristow and his trophy hunting kills, therefore we publish them.

However, unlike August 2016 when nobody cared about this humble corner of cyberspace, the fact that IKN had run that scoop got it a whole new set of eyeballs. In particular, the eyeballs of UK based journalists who were all over the Randick merger like a rash by then. As a result...

October 1st: The Financial Times and the Daily Telegraph picked up and published on the story, then on October 2nd The Daily Mail ran its report on Mark Bristow and his disgusting hobby. All collated in this post, right here.

And with a roll on the drums...

October 7th: "RandGold CEO resigns from conservation group after trophy hunting scandal", which is a happy little report that starts like this:
 RandGold Resources CEO Mark Bristow has resigned from the conservation council of a big cat protection organisation, Panthera following UK reports picturing him on hunting trips.

Just goes to show what a pissant blog can achieve sometimes...








The Pretium $PVG show continues: 3q18 production numbers

Here's the link, here's the headline number sat next to the previous quarters:


That's 92.641oz to you, madame and sire. Behind that, the 12.4 g/t average gold grade willmake a few people go "hmmmm...", it's significantly behind the 14.9g of Q2. 

No position in PVG. Staying that way




10/8/18

Continental Gold (CNL.to): Please name the fired executive

Today from Continental Gold (CNL.to), sandwiched between two heavy slices of schmaltz, this:

With the goal of strengthening and reshaping our security team and protocols, the Company has engaged Control Risks, the world’s foremost security and risk consultancy, to lead efforts in restructuring our security department and reassessing our security risk matrix. The Company is also pleased to announce our new security manager, Juan Carlos Chacón, who joins us from Control Risks and has an impressive military and private sector background with a strong understanding of international standard best practices. In addition, the security manager reporting line has now been elevated directly to our Country Manager, Luis Germán Meneses, former Executive Vice-President and COO of Cerrejón, Colombia’s largest private coal producer and exporter and one of the largest integrated mining companies in the world.

Therefore the obvious question: Who has been fired from the company? Who will stand up and take responsibility for the shortcomings at CNL which resulted in the deaths of its employees? Where is the accountability? Why do you continue to hide the truth behind marketing, bullshit and paid-for puff pieces? The key phrase is in the first line; "With the goal of strengthening and reshaping our security team and protocols...", the logic is simple and cannot be covered by company-speak.
  • They need to strengthen their security team
  • They need to strengthen their protocols
  • Those items were, therefore, weak. Of if you prefer to play semantics they were "less strong", but it amounts to exactly the same thing.
  • Those weaknesses were a direct factor in the deaths of four of its employees. By the company's own admission, the security team and protocols were not good enough and due to that, people were unnecessarily put in harm's way. Four of them died.

Who was responsible? Are they still employed by CNL? If so, why?


Updating on the insider trading investigation against Paul McRae of Lundin Mining (LUN.to)

Paul McRae

A brief reminder that despite overwhelming evidence of obvious illegal insider trading conducted by Paul McRae, a director of Lundin Mining LUN.to) Lundin Gold (LUG.to), Filo Mining (FIL.v) and Bluestone Resources (BSR.v) in transactions that clearly contravene the insider trading laws of Canada as well as the code of ethics of all the companies at which McRae is connected, we have heard nothing from Lundin Mining, nothing from the other companies and nothing from the regulatory authorities of Canada on whether there has, is or will be any type of investigation into McRae and his profitable trading on the back of non-public material information.

Why have rules if they are not applied to clear-cut cases of illegal activity, ladies and gentlemen?


Would somebody please inform B2Gold $BTG that gold is down 1.4% this morning?

Thank you in advance.


The Bovespa rally

The 5% move in the Bovespa today on the back of Jair Bolsonaro's showing is just part of the recent rally. Ever since polls showed his move last week, the index is up 12%.


Brazil 2018: Polling versus results in an interesting visual

Over at The IKN Weekly over the last few weeks, we diligently took a reading of the polling for the 2018 Brazil Presidential election every weekend and gave it a small space in the Regional Politics section. The Readings in this poll started on September 6th (the grey bars at the back) and came every weekend, apart from the last two earlier this week and then the result today (in red). It gives an interesting visual on the way the campaign swung sharply in the last few weeks:


  • We now know that far-right-wing candidate and now hot favourite to become the next President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, got 46.03% of votes yesterday Sunday. But at the start of the sampling on September 6th (with the Brazil opinion poll conducted September 1st to 3rd) Bolsonaro was still back at 22%. As late as September 29th he was polling a steady 28%, but something happened in literally the last few days of the campaign, some sort of crystallization. Two days before the vote, Brazil's normally reliable pollsters Datafolha had him on 36%. He ends up with 46%.
  • Once Fernando Haddad was shifted up by Lula from the Vice-President ticket to the President's and the "Haddad Is Lula" campaign kicked in, his voter intention rose sharply. But then it stalled with the final two readings at 22%. Therefore his final result of 29.27% will give his supporters some hope for the run-off vote in three weeks time, even though Bolsonaro needs to pick up just four extra clicks.
  • Ciro Gomes' campaign was pure inertia, at the 14% level for weeks and where he finished.
  • The right-wing Gerardo Alckmin faded badly and saw half of his real support and all the potential support he planned to pick up siphoned away to the very-right-wing Bolsonaro.
  • But even Alckmin's collapse is chickenfeed next to that of Marina Silva. it's worth remembering that just five weeks ago Silva was polling at 12% and though not front-runner at the time, she was in the mix for the coveted second spot and was being talked about as a serious alternative. She ended up with less than 1% of the vote, an impressive collapse.

Haddad's only real chance is to capture ALL the Gomes vote, then woo away a few of the people from Bolsonaro by recognizing they were voting in protest and doing something that appeals to them even more, then crossing his fingers. Nothing's impossible in politics and that's doubly true for LatAm politics, but it's a very tall order and this election is now Bolsonaro's to lose. Assuming that he wins, the continent has taken the recent right-shift results seen in Argentina, Chile and Colombia and lurched them a long way further to the right.

Angry Geologist does Ivanhoe (IVN.to)

The IVN Makoko project to be precise, that new one they announced a few days ago. TAG struts her stuff right here.

10/7/18

The IKN Weekly, out now


spooky

IKN489 has just been sent to subscribers. A sub-standard issue that has a few decent items, but overall it's far from the best I've done. So be it.


The Brazilian Real (BRL) opens for business

A 2.4% move against the US Dollar. It likes Jair:


A subscriber cancels their subscription to The IKN Weekly

Reader 'S' has kindly given permission to reproduce her unsolicited testimony here on the blog.

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Subscription cancellation
I am taking a break from the market as my husband and I are starting a major house and garden renovation.

Thank you for your illuminating information regarding the ins/out and ups/downs of the stock market and the characters in it and their shenanigans.  These last thirteen years of my life 'investing' and learning how money goes around and by whom has been the most educational time.  Of all the 'money' people I have either read or listened to, you are the most honest and bravest to say what others who know don't. 

Please cancel my subscription.

Wishing you well,
(name withheld)

I will be stopping at your website now and then to catch up on the never ending story. lol




Best mail of the week

It was a short one, too. From a VP Corp Dev of an exploration stage junior mining company that will remain nameless, but I can say that I personally hold no shares in the company nor have any type of reco out on the stock. The VP Corp Dev first quotes a line from this post, the one that exposes Brian Bri-Bri Paes-Braga's extortion tactics to the world, then adds his own thought. Here's the whole thing, aside from the name:
I suppose that more than anything else, this post exists for the junior explorecos to come that get offers from Bri-Bri to participate in their placement offerings.”

 

Yes, and thank you. Added to the very long list of people we don’t want owning our shares.

I may need to take a closer look at the company where this guy works, my kind of mentality.