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3/30/19

Four reasons why gold is going higher


1) The Fed Hits the Ejector Seat
2) Europe's Economy Weakens
3) Treasury Yield Curve Inverts
4) U.S. Budget Deficit Sets a Single-Month Record

And if you want to known more, click here and read this week's Trey Reik piece from which I stole those points. Particularly strong agreement with point three and I had to laugh at the market soothsayers who swore blind last week that the yield curve inversion was unimportant because this time is different.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:
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Third Place: "The Emperor's New Clothes and McEwen Mining (MUX)". Extra hits for posts on fanboy stocks is nothing new.
.
Second Place: "Sprott Physical and the Royal Canadian Mint". One of those you don't expect to get popular, the intrigue factor I suppose.
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First Place: "One of these three men has just been arrested on multiple embezzlement and wire fraud charges...", the week's view leader by a mile. A reflection on how fast the news cycle is these days, in another time we'd still be awestruck by the scandal of this high-profile lawyer collared for a whole series of wrongdoings. In our time of living, it gets pushed aside by another dozen whacko moments in the space of five days.

3/29/19

New Gold (NGD) gives us the late Friday filing nugget

Along with many other operating companies, New Gold (NGD) filed its 2019 Annual Information Form today. Unlike most, it did so post-close and with no accompanying NR and being the nosy type, your humble scribe wondered why. Here's a little thing about the Proven and Probable Reserve at Rainy River.
  • December 31st 2015 gold reserve grade: 1.13 g/t
  • December 31st 2016 gold reserve grade: 1.15 g/t
  • December 31st 2017 gold reserve grade: 1.15 g/t
  • December 31st 2018 gold reserve grade: 1.05 g/t

Oops! Any thoughts on what happens to operating margins when 8.7% of your grade goes missing in a low grade, high tonnage open pit mine? And they returned a head grade of 1.42g in 4q18, can't see that happening too often in the future. But don't worry longs, I'm sure you'll find somebody on Twitter who'll reassure you that NGD is a buy.

The Friday OT: Rammstein; Deutschland

Brand new, out yesterday. Such a great video but I will leave it to you to discover why.




This video is not for children. Youtube here.

Is Scott Caldwell still CEO of Guyana Goldfields (GUY.to)?

Asking for a friend.


The report of copper's death...

...was an exaggeration*.


 Hate to say toldyaso, but...toldyaso Gary.


*I paraphrase of course, but for more on the exact Twain quote and the way it has been bent out of shape over the years try here.

BridgeMark news: Anthony Jackson in more trouble

News website Business In Vancouver has done a smart job of following the ramifications of the BridgeMark scandal and yesterday saw another report from them on Anthony Jackson, one of the ringleaders of the sordid business. Here's the header:

Vancouver stock scandal prompts legal clash between promoter and company 

Montego Resources Inc. says it will conduct an internal probe of former management, but it first needs its former CFO Anthony Jackson to hand over financial records By Graeme Wood | March 28, 2019, 9:52am


3/28/19

Angry Geologist does Azucar Minerals (AMZ.v)

She's back, with a few unpalatable truths served cold about Azucar Minerals (AMZ.v). How sweet.

Catching up with Cardinal Resources (CDV.to)

On February 13th and the publication of its quarter to December 2018, this humble corner of cyberspace ran a post entitled "Cardinal Resources (CDV.to) and the cost of getting U$25m out of Sprott USA". Then the next day we went with more information on how CDV was trying to hide the true cost of capital it needed to pay from its shareholders in "More Cardinal Resources (CDV.to): The BS they feed you masquerading as project economics". So let's see how things have been going over at CDV recently:


That good, eh? Though I'm sure shareholders will be thrilled to know that Rick Rule will get paid by the company in full. Hey, I wonder who sold that 1.5m share block on February 12th? Excellent timing...

IKN's First Law of Stock Speculations

It states:

"If you have raised cash waiting patiently for a negative day in the markets to buy cheaply, on the day the markets fall the stocks you have targeted as purchases do not drop with the rest of your preferred sector."

Amen.

Miramont (MONT.cse): Beware the cult of personality

It doesn't matter how good the management team is, when it's an exploreco it's all about the rocks. Way too many people are being sucked into the "Oh this guy is the best! Invest in him!" as if the mere presence of a known name geologist magically attracts mineralization to the drillbit. Those dragged in are neophytes (retail, the crop that never fails) and are being suckered in by people who either know better and are playing them, or are plug dumb stupid. Either way, why are you listening to them?


As of this morning, every single person who has bought shares in MONT is losing money. Except for the insiders and those who were invited to the seeding placement rounds. Of course. 

Welcome to exploration stage junior mining speculation, newbies. Learn fast or stay poor, your choice.

3/27/19

The Argentina Peso is off and running again

Closing at 43.86 to the US Dollar this evening, a new low (or high, depending on how you look at things) for the Argentina Peso (known as ARS, very close to being a definition as well a a ticker symbol).



When are these bozos going to work out that austerity does not work? All the supposed inflation controls brought on the country by the IMF turn to dust due to the continued slaughtering of the forex and inflation will once again spiral away from the rose-tinted forecasts made by the serious people in suits for 2019. The same way it did for 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Guyana Goldfields (GUY.to) and the curious case of the disappearing gold reserve

Plenty of comments on Twitter this morning about this table from this NR out of Guyana Goldfields (GUY.to) last night:


GUY.to came out with the awaited adjustment to its Aurora mine in Guyana and the way in which the reserve (not resource folks, this was supposed to be 495k oz of proven and 3052k oz of probable reserves) have put in a waterfall drop of impressive proportions. However, it's not that gold atoms have suddenly vaporized on us, as my addition to the twitterchatter pointed out:
"The natural reaction is to think that somehow, the gold disappeared. The truth is that it never existed in the first place. Therefore, it's time to study previous 43-101 reports and remember the names of the people and firms that signed them off."
We should therefore consider three elements:

One: The likelihood of a class action being brought against GUY.to for a series of falsehoods, most recently in February 2017 when it published a Feasibility Report on Aurora that we now know bears no resemblance to reality.

Two: The responsibility of the SNAFU, which lies somewhere between the GUY board and management at the time and the 43-101 compilers, led by SRK (lead signature Tim Carew).

Three: The fact that President & CEO Scott Caldwell was also Prez/CEO back in February 2017 when the false reserves were announced. This man cannot hide behind "mistakes were made", if GUY.to wants to retrieve even some of its reputation and become accountable to its shareholders and the mining sector, he has to either resign or be fired. It doesn't really matter whether he's a lying toerag who was actively involved with the BS, was fooled by the 43-101 compilers (one of these days, somebody's going to sue the authors instead of the mining company and all hell will finally be let loose on the creaking and loophole-strewn CIMM 43-101 system) or whether he was totally inept and didn't have his eye on the ball. He doesn't deserve his $600k+ annual cash salary (not to mention the bonuses piled on top) and needs to go immediately.

3/26/19

The Emperor's New Clothes and McEwen Mining (MUX)

At what point do we start laughing? Tonight's NR from McEwen Mining (MUX) is an exercise in chutzpah:

McEwen Mining Announces US$25 Million Registered Direct Offering
TORONTO, ONTARIO, March 26, 2019 – McEwen Mining Inc. (the “Company” or “McEwen”) (NYSE and TSX: MUX), is pleased to announce that it has entered into definitive agreements with an institutional investor, and certain directors and officers of the Company, including Rob McEwen, pursuant to which such investors have agreed to purchase Units of the Company for aggregate gross proceeds of $25 million in a registered direct offering.

McEwen Mining intends to use the net proceeds from this offering to fully fund its current mining projects and exploration prospects, for additional operating capital and for general working capital purposes.

Rob McEwen, Chairman and Chief Owner of McEwen Mining, stated “I am pleased to say that this financing provides us with the flexibility we need to take advantage of additional opportunities at our operations.” Continues here
 
I mean Rob, your company has only been an operating mining company for seven years, WTF are shareholders getting diluted out to provide working capital? I mean it's great and wonderful and marketing-tastic that you don't draw a salary (as Chairman) but frankly, it'd be better that you took half a million and cut into the wild $23.6m your company burned in G&A in 2018. And did you ever bother look at the trail of disaster that Black Fox has wrought on a whole string of mining companies and consider that it might just be one permanent holy father of a money pit and this time would not be different?


Johnathan Pie on Brexit

This includes NSFW language and the subject matter may have you rolling your eyes, but hang in there for the first minute because Pie nails so many strong points in the central part of his screed, not just about Brexit. In fact, his insight is equally valid for the state of play in many other countries. I'm not expecting this post to be popular, but if just a few of you watch his wonderful rant it will be worth it.




My favourite silver chart...

...from the fundies piece in last weekend's edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN513.



There was lots more on the metal, words and pictures and everything. Also a good look at the best silver junior out there, one that's about to drop major news on us.

INV Metals (INV.to) and its January 2019 Feasibility Study

In response to the result of vote against mining in the Quimsacocha páramo in Ecuador, INV Metals (INV.to) published this NR:


TORONTO, March 25, Mar 25, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) -- TORONTO, March 25, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- INV Metals Inc. ("INV Metals" or the "Company") (INV) provides an update on the 100% owned Loma Larga property, located in Ecuador.
The Company reports that it will relocate the proposed processing and tailings facilities outside of Giron canton. INV Metals will continue the engineering work required to locate the facilities in the same canton as our Mineral Resources and Reserves.
Ms. Candace MacGibbon, CEO, stated, "Loma Larga will continue to advance towards development. We thank our employees for their hard work, as well as the Ministry of Energy and Nonrenewable Resources and our local communities for their previous and ongoing support."
The Company also reports that the result of the referendum held in Giron canton on March 24, 2019 was not in favour of mining activities in the canton. Giron canton is an adjacent jurisdiction which does not contain the Loma Larga Mineral Resources and Reserves. INV Metals will seek further legal clarification on the result and the potential implications.

Which I found fascinating. I mean, aside from the bland "vote was not in favour" when the result was 86.87% of locals voting NO, the whole, "Oh, no worries, we'll just move the processing plant and tailing facility somewhere else" attitude was most impressive. Particularly when you consider that the company has just filed a 43-101 compliant Feasibility Study (not a PEA, not a PFS, but a fully blown FS) upon which it was going to run its permitting and capital raising in 2019. With an effective date of January 11th 2019, the FS has already turned into a mind-blowing waste of time and money. For example, when considering the social and community side of the Loma Larga project it states the following:
"Based on the available information, there are currently no environmental and social considerations that pose a material threat to the Project."

What do you say to that, Owly?



In other words, the INV.to Feasibility Study has been rendered out of date and inaccurate  just two and a half months after its completion. Who paid for this document? That must be some kind of record and while we're at it, the whole blasé "let's move the mine!" thing doesn't pass the smell test, either. Here's how they envisaged the mine in the FS and note how even though the orebody is over there on the right, for special reasons they decided to run a 4km pipeline and locate the processing plant and the tailings facility on the other side of the continental divide (to the left drainage to the Pacific, to the right drainage to the Atlantic).




Once again, at the very least the Feas Study is now defunct as the whole engineering plan needs to be thrown out (10 weeks ago! Jeesh...). However, one wonders just why they were so keen on putting the messy bits over that side of the divide. 

The capex for this mine is set at $310m, money that INV does not have and will need to raise. With the local community voting overwhelmingly against mining activity in this very zone in an officially sanctioned and legally binding referendum (plus the election saw the leader of the anti-mining movement, Yaku Pérez, elected as prefect of the whole Azuay province on a mandate to ban all mining activity in the whole region) do they honestly think there are financiers stupid enough to sponsor this project? Apparently so, according to the ridiculous NR from the hand of the increasingly desperate Candace MacGibbon last night.

3/25/19

SNC-Lavalin in Chile; You heard it here first

Tonight SNC-Lavalin comes out with the NR...



...which merely confirms the information supplied by this humble corner of cyberspace two full weeks ago in this post dated March 11th. Piscolas served.

One of these three men has just been arrested on multiple embezzlement and wire fraud charges...

...which is a good start. 


From left to right, Michael Avenatti, Brian Paes-Braga and Frank Giustra

Sprott Physical and the Royal Canadian Mint

Reproduced for no real reason, save that I thought it was interesting and I like the intrigue behind the segment, "...given the significant high-volume withdrawal requests we are currently receiving from your firm."


3/24/19

Mining referendum news from Azuay, Ecuador

Exit poll from the referendum on mining in Azuay, Ecuador
  • Against mining in the Quimsacocha páramo: 76.1%
  • For mining in the Quimsacocha páramo: 13.7%

The rest are spoiled ballots and/or null votes. IKN therefore confidently predicts that the lawyers billing INV Metals (INV.to) are going to have a better few years than shareholders of INV Metals. The latter group include the clients of that utter dumbass Byron King, of course.

The IKN Weekly, out now


At last! Real News!


IKN513 has just been sent to subscribers. We take a good, hard look at the silver market and like what we see in the metal, as well as the best junior in the silver space which is about to wake up with a vengeance.