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9/14/19

Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): I'm getting flak from impatient people, so here's the news

Unfair to tease this one.

On Friday at 11:27pm the tribunal arbitrating on the case between Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and quasi-State bank COFIDE over the fate of the Ollachea project and the U$70m bridge loan forwarded by COFIDE to the mining company published its verdict on the case. You can read it here. The need-to-know is:
  • The tribunal has found in favour of Minera IRL and against COFIDE
  • COFIDE has been ordered to pay U$18.75m in damages, plus another U$13.96m in loss of earnings. 
  • The tribunal also struck off all interest payments due on the U$70m bridge loan due as from July 17th, which I believe comes to around U$16m. 
  • Along with another small award, the total award package comes to just over U$50m

This is a massive win for Minera IRL, be in no doubt. Just the U$32m cash award is around U$0.14 per share (C$0.17). The whole package is worth around USD 22c/share with the interest write-off included. Plus of course IRL can now get on, fund and build its mine. 

Expect major news about Minera IRL (MIRL.cse)...

....in The IKN Weekly, IKN538, out tomorrow evening.


"On a more exciting note": AM Resources (AMR.v) gets its entry in for the "Mining NR of the Year" award

It's not just the way it was filed late night Friday. It's not just the light and carefree "Oh btw, the authorities have closed us down" message. It's the way they segue into the "La Esperanza Progress" section that makes this one so special. Link here, whole thing below.

MONTREAL, Sept. 13, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AM Resources Corporation (“AM” or the “Corporation”) (TSXV: AMR) (Frankfurt: 76A) informs that following a routine site visit to the Corporation’s DJU-071 coal concession contract area (the “Mina Luz Property”) by the Colombian National Mining Agency (“ANM”), the mining activities have been provisionally suspended for allegedly being outside the granted area.
The Corporation’s Colombian subsidiary AM Resources SAS, is actively working with local counsel to undertake the necessary legal action in order to clarify this situation and request the lifting of the suspension, before the ANM, which unfortunately can take up to sixty business days to respond.
AM wishes to clarify that the decision to suspend mining work is a provisional measure, while the Corporation and the ANM clarifies the area of the coordinates granted. AM is fully committed  to work diligently, with Colombian regulatory authorities to resolve this situation in a timely manner.
La Esperanza Progress
On a more exciting note the Corporation recently received the TSXV final approval of the acquisition of its La Esperanza asphaltite project located Norte de Santander, in Colombia, and  is really pleased with the progress of its exploration program. AM intends to divert a portion of it available resources from the Mina Luz Property while it works toward resolving the title issue.
UCS Update
Lastly, further to its August 22 and 23, 2018 press release, the Corporation also wants to inform its shareholders that it is still working on arranging the financing to complete a transaction for the Ultimate Conversion System (‘’UCS’’) machine.
ABOUT AM RESOURCES CORP.



9/13/19

Angry Geologist spanks Garibaldi's (GGI.v) monkey

And the thrusting young madame does so in a way that even Messrs Regoci and Lightfoot are likely to remember, right here.

This Nickel Mountain charade is coming to an end, I mean even Mr. Eric Sprott OBO* has given up on this one (and ffs that takes some doing these days). Donkeys are worth more than this shady scheme, it's time to run away once and for all.


*Our Benign Overlord

The Friday OT: Boards of Canada: Dayvan Cowboy

Two brothers from Scotland who record in their living room and sample things like 1970's TV shows  and old VHS videos, a band named after the National Film Board of Canada. An unlikely start for one of the best pieces of music composed this century.



And a great video to boot. Youtube here.

Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Tracking the Lindero bullshit

When you are awoken to the smell of CEO bullshit it's often worth investigating further, if only to see how many more bullshit lies and truth-stretches have been in operation. Our subject, Fortuna CEO Jorge Ganoza, has already been shown as untrustworthy over the progress and cost of his white elephant in Argentina (of all places, WTF were they thinking?) due to the corporate need to raise cash for the project when he said very clearly earlier in the year they wouldn't need any more, even after the weather-affected delay was taken into consideration. So when today FVI said...
"The Lindero Project construction remains on track with placement of Mineral Reserves on the leach pad scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2019 and first doré pour planned in the first quarter of 2020"
...the radar buzzed and it was time for some fact-checking. Starting here, what FVI said on February 20th in its NR when re-setting the timeline:
"The crushing and agglomeration plant is on the critical path of the project.  Commissioning of this plant is planned for late in the third quarter of 2019."
Compare that today's NR:
"Commissioning of the crushing circuit and the agglomeration plant is planned for the fourth quarter of 2019."
So what part of this fits with the company's claim that "The Lindero Project construction remains on track?". Answer; None, it's revisionist BS. Also,note that on February 22nd the company was keen to explain that critical path was the crushing and agglomeration plant. Today it was all sequins and sleight of hand over the start of pre-production mining", as not only was that the NR title, but CEO Ganoza threw in his comment about it being "...one of the important milestones of the project...". Not a peep about the real delays at the project, but we're beginning to see a pattern and that suddenly comes as no surprise.

So what about if we take a decent guess at when this thing is really going to be finished, rather than when they'd like us to think it'll be ready. For that we need to track their deeds rather than their words and this table does just that:


Along the way and from time to time, FVI has reported the total completion percentage of Lindero to the market in its publications, e.g. MD&As, news releases and conference calls. This shows six of the pertinent dates and the percentage of Lindero reported complete by the company on each date.
  • Back on November 7th (in the 3q19 MD&A), Lindero was 26% complete.
  • Then in both the Feb 20th NR and the year-end MD&A, Lindero was reported 40% complete. We know the project had hit weather delays at that point, so a pass is given.
  • Then on May 13th we were told Lindero was 47% complete. Slow progress since the last update and as the columns on the right show, they'd only added an extra 7% completion in 62 days, a rate of 0.11% per day.
  • However, since then things have picked up a bit as the last two updates show an improved rate of build-out at Lindero, averaging 0.21% completion per day since May 13th. That's a three and a half month sample and a reasonable one on which to base estimates.

Therefore, a little mathematics: If today Lindero is 70% complete and being built out at the average rate of 0.21% per day, that means we are 143 days from completion. And that, ladies and gentlemen, means FVI can say whatever it wants about pre-production-this-and-that, this thing won't be ready until late January. This compares to the original plan (3q18 MD&A): "...the Company maintains its guidance of the commencement of commissioning in the second quarter of 2019 and achieving commercial production by the end of the third quarter of 2019." It's not even going to be commissioned by end 2019 and the company has the brass neck to tell us it remains on track today.

Over-budget, overdue and even when it's finished, in Argentina. 

In The IKN Weekly this weekend

A good look at the ITR PEA, plus the name of the new stock I plan on buying next week.

9/11/19

Harte Gold (HRT.to) is the new Metanor

While noting the casual air in which Harte Gold (HRT.to) this evening inflicted yet another dilutive placement on its long-suffering retail shareholders, your humble scribe could not help but reflect on the striking similarities between this serial killer of speculators' dreams and the old Metanor (ex-MTO) when it mined the Bachelor Lake property. Both are examples of decent deposits run by well-meaning miners who do not have the first clue about finances and blow their capital structures to bits by accepting whatever deal, as long as they get to open their mine. But it's not just that, because they've gone almost exactly the same route by...
a) painful overdilution of share count (and "drop-of-hat" style NRs were the MTO thing)
b) debt financing now coming due at a bad time, causing negative working capital (which tempts them back to the equity market and more freakin dilution, just like MTO)
c) a godforsaken derivatives contract, what with MTO and its SAND stream or HRT and its embarrassingly poorly timed hedging contracts.
...and the match is uncanny. We know what happened in the end at Metanor, shareholders were crushed under dilution, the company could never raised the capital it needed to truly advance productivity, the whole thing was picked up for pennies by Mr Eric Sprott O.B.O* and now it would seem Bonterra are making a good fist of unlocking what there is up there as a regional play. Metanor is the poster child example of shareholders losing because financial fools get in the way of them and the mine. From what I've seen to date Harte Gold is following the model closely.


*Our Benign Overlord

WGC: "Gold: the most effective commodity investment"

Okay, of course you're going to get the bullish case for gold from The World Gold Council. I mean...

The World Tofu Council highlights the advantages of Tofu
The World Shoe Council Recommends You Wear Shoes
The World Cake Council Releases New Report on How Delicious Cake Is
The World Electric Vehicle Council Believes Electric Vehicles Are The Future

...etc. All the same, this report from the WGC entitled "Gold: the most effective commodity investment" is well worth your time as its argument is straightforward, solid and based in sound financial theory. It's 2019 ladies and gents, you don't need to be a goldbug to own gold, you just need to have a modicum of common sense and an answer to the increasing risk profile of the world financial system. Well thought-out charts too. Gotta love a good fundies chart, go have a look.

Can anyone remember a trade in which Orion actually made money in juniors?

This morning brings the latest reminder of how crap that fund and its people are in the junior sector.

On September 10, 2019, Orion Mine Finance announced that it had entered into an agreement to sell 10,000,000 ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") of Lydian International Limited ("Lydian") held by Orion Co-IV (ED) Limited, a company managed by Orion Mine Finance Management I Limited ("Orion"). Orion wishes to clarify that the sale price for the 10,000,000 Ordinary Shares in the September 10, 2019 transaction (the "Transaction") was C$0.10 cash per Ordinary Share for an aggregate price of C$1,000,000.
Immediately prior to the Transaction, Orion beneficially owned 98,836,000 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 13% of the issued and outstanding Ordinary Shares. Immediately following the Transaction, Orion beneficially owned 88,836,000 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 11.7% of the issued and outstanding Ordinary Shares (based on there being 760,017,021 Ordinary Shares issued and outstanding). Since the date of its last early warning report, Orion decreased its securityholding percentage in the Ordinary Shares from approximately 16.9% to approximately 11.7%, representing a decrease of approximately 5.2%.

Continues here. Honestly, I've lost count of how many of their investments have blown up in their faces.

Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and Lindero

On February 20th, and notably after announcing that due to adverse weather conditions the timeline for the Lindero gold project in Argentina would be set back a little, CEO Jorge Ganoza of Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) stated the following:
“The Company remains well funded with low debt and sufficient liquidity to meet its construction and working capital requirements for the completion of construction activities and operating ramp-up activities at Lindero.”

Yesterday September 10th, Fortuna Silver announced a $40m bought deal financing. The reason it was adding debt to the corporate structure was...?
"The Company will use the net proceeds from the Offering for working capital in relation to the start-up of the Lindero project and for general working capital purposes."

Yet another CEO bullshits the market. As for the performance of FSM compared to silver bullion between those dates...

Pathetic. And to think silver was hated, too.

Silver versus silver miners

The whole point of owning precious metals mining companies is to reap the benefits of leverage to the metal in question, so a look at the comparative chart of silver (the black line here) against a handful of silver producers over the last 12 months should show that with silver bullion prices up 25% year-on-year, the mining companies are all flying, right?


Wrong. Okay, a couple like Alexco (AXU) and First Majestic (AG) have done what they are supposed to do and even that uber dog IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) has provided a reasonable return compared to the metal. But Pan American (PAAS) has under-performed the metal and just look how badly Coeur (CDE) and Fortuna Silver (FSM) have done. Plenty of others like those too, check out Hecla, Great Panther, Endeavour (EXK) and more. And more.

9/9/19

Snatching defeat from the jaws of Victory Metals (VMX.v)

The only thing surprising about the way this Palisade pump is trading is that it hasn't totally collapsed already, what with the volume trailing down to nothing and a whole bunch of shady Vancouver asswipes all desperate to get their shares out the door. Collin Kettell learns the hard way that running pumps and dumps on other people's companies dos not qualify you as a CEO, nor does it bring you any sort of peer respect.

BlackRock (BLK) has been selling Torex Gold (TXG)

And now BLK has its total holding under 10% of shares out, no need to file any longer. This on SEDAR tonight:
BLK previously filed a report under Part 4 of NI 62-103 in respect of Torex Gold Resources Inc. dated March 31, 2019 for security holdings of 10,604,862 common shares representing a security holding percentage of 12.46%. The net decrease in security holdings since the last report is 2,371,964 shares, resulting in BLK’s control or direction over an aggregate of 8,232,898 common shares. As a result, BLK’s security holding percentage of common shares has decreased from 12.46% to 9.65 % of the 85,271,868 issued and outstanding common shares of the reporting issuer.
Which may or may not explain the recent action in the stock:

RNC Minerals (RNX.to) and its upcoming date with 28c

And Haywood agreed to a bought deal. What were they thinking, they get suckered in by that specimen show?


Just 22% of downside left to go.

Best wishes to Bob Moriarty of 321Gold

My sincere condolences. A link to his sad news here.

Financial Post does the Cobalt 27 (KBLT.v) buyout scandal

On August 15th this humble corner of cyberspace said its piece about the change of control rip-off and cozy insider carve-up currently going on at Cobalt 27 (KBLT.v) as Pala Investments and its Russian oligarch owner Iorich screws everyone into the ground and gives its management the dirty money payoff it most definitely does not deserve. Now Gabriel Friedman of Canada's Financial Post has picked up on the story and late last week filed this strong report on the scandal, which is must-read material (not least because there's something of a shareholder revolt going on now. Here's how it starts:
Toronto-based Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., which billed itself as an investment in the electric vehicle revolution, is facing outcries from some of its largest shareholders as it tries to sell its most valuable assets during a market low-point.
The company roared into the market in mid-2017 with an initial public offering, ultimately raising hundreds of millions of dollars to stockpile and acquire royalties on cobalt, an essential metal used in lithium-ion batteries. Within about a year the price of cobalt had hit a five-year peak, only to crash in the latter half of 2018 and never fully recover.
Now the company wants to steer its investors into nickel and to sell its main cobalt assets to its largest shareholder, Pala Investments. Other shareholders would receive $3.57 in cash, plus equity in Nickel 28, a new company that would hold the remaining assets including a stake in a nickel mine in Papua New Guinea.

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN537 has just been sent to subscribers and the good news is that you have just one week left to wait for the best picture ever to appear on this segment. 538 coming up.

Also, last week several subscribers didn't receive the Weekly correctly and it seems there was some glitch between Google and myself (I blame google, but then again I would). I've taken action and the Weekly should get through okay this time, but if it doesn't show in your mailbox please shoot me a line using a reply from a previous week. Thanks in advance.