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3/28/20

We Need #Masks4All, an important video on Covid-19 prevention

This isn't a random weekend filler post or yet another half-baked idea on Covid-19 that has made it to the public debate, we at IKN Nerve Centre curate very carefully to bring you only the most pertinent coronavirus information. This is an important video on why not only you, but everyone, should start using a mask to help combat Covid-19.
  • This is rational, scientific and non-political. Their conclusions match field observations. 
  • They make a point of knocking down all anti-wear arguments, then go on to explain the active benefits of wearing masks. 
  • They recommend home-made masks and this is good news for low income countries with weak healthcare systems that need as many preventative initiatives as possible. 
I even love the way the presenters are not slick, professional media pros, but a couple of geeks who have done the research and are keen to get the word out and save people. They are wonderful and do a perfect job. I don't impose a 35 minute video on you and call it important to watch for nothing.





This is the message left by the team under its Youtube. I'm putting it in bold type because I'd like you to read it. I'm leaving all the hyperlinks as-is so that you can use them.
In the Czech Republic, masks have been compulsory since March 18th. The country has only 2 deaths (as at March 24) and the growth of new cases has flattened, whereas in other parts of Europe the pandemic is largely out of control. How has this happened? One of the key reasons is a massive country-wide community initiative to create and wear home-made masks. In just 10 days the country went from no mask usage to nearly 100% usage, with nearly all the masks made at home with easily accessible materials, like old t-shirts. See https://tiny.cc/masks4all 

In S Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, there is no lock-down. Yet covid-19 is being controlled in these countries. How has this happened? One of the key reasons is that mask wearing in public is ubiquitous and socially expected. 

We (with our community) have compiled 33 scientific research papers showing the effectiveness of masks at combating covid-19 transmission, including home-made masks. See http://tiny.cc/maskswork

Please, watch this video, then do these 3 things: 1) share it; 2) take a selfie of you wearing a home-made mask; 3) spread the message, with hashtag #masks4all.


x

3/27/20

The Friday OT: Mozart Flute Concerto No.1 (K313), 2nd mov (Adagio non troppo)

A side benefit of the quarantine and isolation, I've fallen in love with Mozart again. Not sure what the neighbours think of Don Giovanni at 3am, though.



Here Gustavo Dudamel conducts, Andrea Griminelli plays and how this has less than 1,500 views on Youtube after ten years is a mystery. Nearly eight minutes of bliss, no matter where you're stuck.

PS: He starts Mov3 at the end, if you'd like to see him play it be my guest.

Eric Sprott thinks the Covid-19 virus is man-made

...and neatly confirms that he is a badly informed wittering old man who does not have the first clue. You need to shut the fuck up now, Eric, there are people who will believe this shit simply because it came from out of your mouth. Asshole.

Camino Rojo

Something very smelly about this deal. I mean, I remember the opaque nature of the Goldcorpse/ Orla deal back in 2017. Now we get news of a layback deal with FRES and a $75m bot deal in the middle of a world health and financial crisis. WTF, Chuck?

3/26/20

Business ideas

For example:

  • Develop a seamless "Christmas & Baby Shower" double-themed party package, franchise to planners.
  • Make/Market new clear plastic passport covers, with extra pocket for Health Certificate Card.
  • Buy and renovate hotel on Rockaway Beach (or similar out of fashion location close to any major conurbation).
  • Which is the most imported foodstuff to your country, State, region etc that can be easily produced in your area? Start producing it.
  • Full face visors for dentists (and other near-person professions) were starting to gain market share. That share is about to go a lot higher, get yourself on Alibaba a.s.a.p.
  • Stop listening to mining newsletter writers.

Others?








Vote Gabe Brown for Mayor

And no term limits. This person needs to head up Boone County KY USA forever. Dedicated to Ross:


3/25/20

Peru and Covid-19: You need to hear this whisper, too

On publishing yesterday's post "Peru and Covid-19: Whisper it quietly..." I knew that no matter how many "yeah be careful" and "early days" caveats added, people would immediately grab for their preferred wrong end of stick (clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right). 

So, let's talk. We start with the updated charts from exactly the same place as last night:



Not so good, obviously. When you get datasets that indicate three times in a row, statistically you are allowed to be tentative. Number four came in the way it did. I shrug, while those who took last night's post as "Peru Has Beaten Coronavirus Jail All Leaders Who Do Not Follow Its Example" now need either to apologize to their audience, or to blame me. I know the probabilities on that one, too.

Finally and separately, I got bored with a couple of people and their erroneous insistence on last night's post and got snappy with them today. I don't feel good about that and would like to apologize (they know who they are). Day ten of a quarantine that is now almost certain to extend once its current 15 day period is up.

The #StuckInPeru whining gringos still think Covid-19 is all about them them them

These people make me annoyed, to say the least:



To clarify:

The state of emergency quarantine is 15 days. We are on day 10. There is obvious talk of the quarantine being extended and President Vizcarra today said they'll make a decision tomorrow Thursday. I fully expect the quarantine to be extended (best guess, by 5 day or 1 week increments then "let's see").

Only out one hour a day is 45 minutes more than the average Peruvian.

That "threatened with 10 years prison" is uber-snowflake. From 8pm to 5am Peru goes under curfew and anyone caught outside is arrested, no questions asked. Eventual charges can carry a maximum prison sentence of ten years. 

You should not put pressure on the British government for these people. You should put pressure on these people to STFU for the sake of the sanity of the British government. Explained all this last week, here. And while this young lady bleats, her Foreign Office is scrambling to deal with the case of a British national now in intensive care in Arequipa, South Peru, with suspected Covid-19 but nobody knows for sure because they have just become the umpteenth city in provincial Peru to have run out of test kits.

Notice something about the Alexco (AXU) bot deal

The involves the following:

1) A bought deal
2) For a development stage silver mining company
3) At a time of great market turmoil
4) And...
5) NBF was not invited into the syndicate.


VANCOUVER, March 25, 2020 /CNW/ - Alexco Resource Corp. (NYSE AMERICAN: AXU;TSX: AXU) ("Alexco" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that further to its previously announced over-night marketed public offering (the "Offering") of common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares"), it has entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by Cormark Securities Inc. and Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation, and including Canaccord Genuity Corp. (collectively the "Underwriters") to sell 4,054,500 Common Shares at a price of $1.85 per share  (the "Offering Price") for gross proceeds of $7.5 million. The Company has granted to the Underwriters an option (the "Over-Allotment Option"), exercisable in whole or in part, in the sole discretion of the Underwriters, for a period of 30 days from and including the closing of the Offering, to purchase up to an additional 608,175 Common Shares ("Option Shares") at the Offering Price. If the Over-Allotment Option is exercised in full, the total gross proceeds to the Company will be $8.6 million

We were talking markets and my pal comes out with this
"I would find it funny if SilverCrest's share price recovered just as NBF pulls out of the financing."

Personally, I'd find it hilarious. Leopards and spots, NBF. Leopards and spots.

A screenshot

09:15 local time. This is why I am not trading this market.


Seduction

A word of advice: Don't jump straight into a relationship if the one you have just been in turned out badly. Particularly true if you seem to prefer domineering partners.



Appian Offers Credit Support to Mining Companies Through Coronavirus Crisis

LONDON, March 25, 2020 /CNW/ -- Message from Appian Capital Advisory LLP ("Appian"), the investment advisor to long-term value focused private equity funds (the "Appian Funds") that invest solely in mining and mining related companies. 
The spread of coronavirus has had a profound impact on people's lives, economies, commodity prices and financial markets worldwide. Although the full impact is not yet clear, Appian is monitoring the situation closely. Our first priority is the safety of our people. Our operations around the globe have implemented measures to protect employees, limit the spread of the virus and assist local communities. We will keep these arrangements under review as the situation evolves and will continue to assess how we can play our part in the response. 
We are also conscious that the broader mining industry is already under pressure. There has been a demand shock and prices have fallen. Restrictions on the movement of people have forced companies to change working patterns. Supply disruption could increase further if the virus spreads to key commodity producing regions in Latin America and Africa. It is precisely in times like this that long-term capital and through-the-cycle thinking are required to support high quality businesses and management teams.
To address the challenges presented by COVID-19, Appian has expanded its focus and is ready to provide short-term, flexible financing solutions across the capital structure, including credit facilities, to support mining companies with near term balance sheet pressures and liquidity concerns – in addition to considering our usual direct equity investments. The long-term nature of the Appian Funds' capital base and the flexibility of Appian's investment mandate allow us to support partners within the range of US$50 million to US$300 million of financial support, including equity, bridge loans and other forms of credit. 

3/24/20

Peru and Covid-19: Whisper it quietly...

...and above all, be aware that things can change. The health system is working like true heroes, but resources are thin and there is lag on testing results. A new outbreak in another place may still be undetected. All other types of variables, but...



...that is at least going in the right direction. From here. Your humble scribe, signing off on day nine of a strict national quarantine. ¡Vamos Perú Carajo!


PS: Nice photoshow of zero traffic Lima, here.

The Tuesday Covid OT: Fool's Garden; Lemon Tree

A special week of musical wonderment:



Youtube here.

Why selling into a crash is a rookie's mistake

It all boils down to that standard trade warning, "You have to be right twice". Exhibit A, the GDXJ:


Bought back yet, Friday sellers? Either Friday, in fact.

More on Covid-19 patient Ulises Solís of Plateau Energy Metals (PLU.v)

Yesterday we noted that Ulises Solís of Plateau Energy Metals (PLU.v) had tested positive for Covid-19, which he almost certainly contracted at PDAC (as did many others). Today we hear from unofficial but reliable sources that his personal driver has died of Covid-19 in Peru and his bodyguard is also Covid-19 positive and very ill. 

Thank you once again, PDAC. Your international reach is unbeatable. Canada must be proud of you.

So much for Trump's strong leadership

Boots the expert off his advisory committee because he didn't like hearing about reality, and now it's "Old People Must Risk Themselves For The Greater Good". Asshole.

Gold at the NYMEX open today

Wowsers. From here:



Upside resistance just melted away. Own some.

UPDATE: Double wow:


 Still have to own some and the market is offering a sudden extra discount, but the price action today is worthy of a chunk of Shakespeare. Julius Caesar, Act 3 Sc1 ll67-70

There is no fellow in the firmament.
The skies are painted with unnumbered sparks.
They are all fire and every one doth shine,
But there’s but one in all doth hold his place.

How to win social media during the Covid-19 pandemic

1) Speak English and either Italian or Spanish.
2) Translate the memes they sent you last week.
3) Publish them in English.


Indeed, here on Day Nine of quarantine I am now getting the exact same jokes as seven days ago.

3/23/20

Another Covid-19 positive from PDAC

Ulises Solís Llapa, Peru General Manager of Plateau Energy Metals (PLU.v), has tested positive for Covid-19 and according to sources has been moved to intensive care in Lima. He was at PDAC and first fell ill on March 14th.

Covid-19 in the Vancouver Bentall Centre Tower 3

Floor 31 could be Frank Giustra's gang, could be The Clive at B2Gold. Or maybe somebody else.






The Monday Covid OT: Talking Heads; (Nothing But) Flowers

David Byrne, visionary:



For fellow fan JS. Youtube here.

History will remember the 2020 PDAC Committee

A segment from this most interesting Financial Post report (author Gabe Friedman no surprise, best of breed reporter):
Even as revelations continue to surface that a mining conference held in Toronto in early March caused the spread of COVID-19 within the sector, including on Tuesday a new report of an outbreak at Toronto-based Troilus Gold that resulted in a hospitalization, the mining industry has largely been able to continue to operate without impact.
The conference was attended by 23,000 people, down only about 10 per cent from the previous year. A source familiar with the planning of the event said there were daily meetings for two weeks before the event at which there was discussion about whether to cancel because of the virus.
“The voices that were opposed to moving forward were definitely in the minority,” the person said.

A chart, out today, figures good as per 5:30pm yesterday evening:
So tell me, when was PDAC? 

Answer: March 1st to March 4th

When did Ontario cases start moving higher?

Answer: Between 7 and 9 days after PDAC, depending on your taste for figures.

And the incubation period of Covid-19?

Answer: Median is currently believed to be 5.1 days, though two day incubation periods are not uncommon. Main window of incubation runs to 14 or 16 days, one case reported a confirmed 27 day incubation.

Checking in on the IKN silver call

Wednesday March 11th, this humble corner of cyberspace publishes "The death of silver as a valid investment alternative". Since then...

 ...may it rest in peace. IKN once again calls silver far better than Kitco's 2019 Mining CEO of the Year.

SpeakEasy's pot sharks

Cannabis stocks don't make it to IKN much, but you just have to see the NR out of the CSE outfit SpeakEasy Cannabis Club (EASY.cse) this morning:

The Company has also entered into a term sheet (the "Term Sheet") with an arm's length lender (the "Lender") for a senior secured loan in the aggregate principal amount of $3,000,000 (the "Secured Loan"). The Secured Loan will accrue interest at a rate of 55% per annum and will be repayable as to $2,715,000 (inclusive of interest) on the first anniversary of the closing date and as to $2,999,250 (inclusive of interest) on the second anniversary date of the closing date (the "Maturity Date").  The outstanding principal amount and accrued interest thereon will be convertible into common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares") at the option of the Lender at any time prior to the Maturity Date at a conversion price of $1.00 per Common Share. 

Wow. Just plain freakin wow.

3/22/20

The IKN Weekly, out now





IKN565 has just been sent to subscribers. Fair to say, rather different than the normal editions.

Excellent Covid-19 charts

The person who put this site together receives all my respect, it's how you are supposed to do these charts and he has done many. Log scale, tracking countries against benchmarks (Italy and straight-line daily increases of differing %). Here is "warm countries" for example, which shows us that ambient temperature is less of a factor than was previously suggested:



Of this sample, Peru looks likeliest to flatten the curve. I fear most for Brazil, frankly. Size matters.

Lundin Gold (LUG.to): Ron Hochstein gets it

Good. LUG has always been a switched-on company when it comes to best practice CSR, today is merely another example. Well done, RH and team.

VANCOUVER, March 22, 2020 /CNW/ - Lundin Gold Inc. ("Lundin Gold" or the "Company") (TSX: LUG, Nasdaq Stockholm: LUG) announced that the Company is temporarily suspending operations at its Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador amid growing concerns regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the country

"The situation in Ecuador has changed rapidly over the last few days," said Ron Hochstein, Lundin Gold President and CEO.  "We are committed to the health and safety of our employees and the local communities in which we operate.  In consultation with both local officials and the Government of Ecuador, we have made the decision to temporarily suspend operations in order to reduce the risk to our workforce and to local communities."